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The Subprime and Credit Crisis. Seattle 2008. Complexity.

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The Subprime and Credit Crisis

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The Subprime and Credit Crisis

Seattle 2008


Complexity

  • “We know that things are uncertain at times of crisis. Uncertainty disrupts financial markets. It induces mob behavior. People hate uncertainty. Often, there is a feeling that a conspiracy must be behind it all, organizing and disseminating the problems. Someone must be punished. The witches must be burned. The communist spies must be revealed. People begin looking for signs of conspiracy, particularly events which, when connected, will reveal a tapestry of deception – a pattern that will be there for all to see.

  • If we look hard enough, we can always find a pattern. Experts will say that the “probability” that a particular connection might happen by chance is very small… In retrospect, the conspiracies usually turn out to be deadly flights of the imagination… Yet the patterns were there.”

  • “Complexity, Risk and Financial Markets” by Edgar E. Peters

  • This introduction was dated March 1999

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


Reinsurer Concerns

  • Accumulation

    • Horizontal

    • Vertical

    • BOTH

  • Excess of Loss

  • Net – or without a net, if you will

  • Cede

  • Clash – very limited market

  • Large insurers retaining more net – pushes reinsurers into new markets

  • Worldwide exposure – Soc Gen, Northern Rock, UBS, etc.

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


Schedule P – Other Liability – Claims-Made

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


Schedule P – Other Liability – Claims-Made

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


Growing Pressure on Credit Quality

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


A Speculative Grade World

Presentation for [client/prospect], [date].


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