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Small Sea Changes: Big Infrastructure Impacts. The Gulf Coast Study Mike Savonis, US DOT November 13, 2009. Gulf Coast Study Team. United States Department of Transportation (lead agency) United States Geological Survey (supporting agency) Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

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Small sea changes big infrastructure impacts

Small Sea Changes: Big Infrastructure Impacts

  • The Gulf Coast Study

  • Mike Savonis, US DOT

  • November 13, 2009


Gulf coast study team
Gulf Coast Study Team

United States Department of Transportation (lead agency)

United States Geological Survey (supporting agency)

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Texas A&M University

University of New Orleans

Louisiana State University

Transportation Analysis Team

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Texas Transportation Institute

Wilbur Smith Associates

2


Federal advisory committee gulf coast study
Federal Advisory CommitteeGulf Coast Study

3


Global climate change impacts in the us author team
Global Climate Change Impacts in the USAuthor Team

  • Co-Chairs: Tom Karl, NOAA; Jerry Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory; Tom Peterson, NOAA


Transportation timeframes vs climate impacts
Transportation Timeframes vs. Climate Impacts

Climate Impacts

Engineering and Design

Construction

In Service

Service Life

Transportation Planning Process

ProjectConcept

AdoptedLong-Range Plan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Years


Results – Gulf Coast StudyTrends in Climate and the Natural Environment

Historical rate of sea level rise relative to the land surface varied among tide gauges across the region

2.14 mm/yr

9.85 mm/yr

6.5 mm/yr

6


Land Surface Elevations Subject to Flooding in the Study Area

under High, Mid, and Low Sea Level rise Scenarios (Ensemble of 7 GCMs under

Four Emission Scenarios) (SLRRP Model results in centimeters)

7


Caveats relative slr and storm surge
Caveats – Relative SLR and Storm Surge Area

Analysis of impacts is based on land elevation rather than the height of facilities

Analysis does not consider the presence of possible protective structures (levees, sea walls, etc.)

Given the connectivity of the intermodal system, a small flooded segment may render much of the infrastructure inoperable

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Results gulf coast study trends in climate and the natural environment
Results Area – Gulf Coast StudyTrends in Climate and the Natural Environment

Average temperature is likely to increase by 2°- 4° F

More hot days: # of days > 90 °F may increase by 50%

Extreme daily high temps will also increase

Models show mixed results for changes in average precipitation

Intensity of rainfall events, however, will likely increase

The magnitude of impacts worsen as emissions increase under the IPCC scenarios

9


More intense downpours will increase transportation disruptions
More intense downpours will increase transportation disruptions

Heavy downpours have already increase

The heaviest 1% of events has increased by 20%

Increased flooding of roadways, rail lines and other transportation facilities is expected from overloaded drainage systems

Changes in silt and debris buildup will affect channel depth at ports and increase dredging costs

More flights are likely to be delayed and/or cancelled

10


Sea level rise will increase the risk of permanent flooding in coastal areas
Sea-level rise will increase the risk of permanent flooding in coastal areas

  • Relative sea level rise of 4 feet in the Gulf Coast could permanently flood:

  • 24% of interstate miles, 28% of arterial miles, New Orleans Transit

    • More than 2,400 miles of roadway are at risk of permanent flooding

  • 72% of freight / 73% of non-freight facilities at ports

  • 9% of the rail miles operated, 20% of the freight facilities, no passenger stations

  • 3 airports


Results gulf coast study highways vulnerable to relative sea level rise
Results in coastal areas – Gulf Coast StudyHighways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise

Baseline (Present Day)

4 Feet of Sea Level Rise

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. DOT Data.


More intense storms will result in damaging storm surges
More intense storms will result in damaging storm surges in coastal areas

  • Transportation in vulnerable areas are already subject to large hurricanes; damages will increase as intensity increases

  • Temporary flooding of roads, airports, transit, ports and rail

  • Damages due to wave action, debris

  • Increased use of evacuation routes and rescue operations


Results gulf coast study vulnerability due to storm surge
Results in coastal areas – Gulf Coast StudyVulnerability Due to…Storm Surge

Transportation infrastructure that is vulnerable to 18 feet of storm surge includes:

51% of interstate miles, 56% of arterial miles, and most transit authorities

98% of port facilities vulnerable to surge and 100% to wind

33% of rail miles operated, 43% of freight facilities

22 airports in the study area at or below 18 feet MSL

14


Freight rail lines vulnerable to storm surge of 18 feet
Freight Rail Lines Vulnerable to Storm Surge of 18 feet in coastal areas

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of climate projections and Federal Railroad Administration data.


Hurricane katrina damage to highway 90 at bay st louis ms
Hurricane Katrina Damage to in coastal areasHighway 90 at Bay St. Louis, MS

Source: NASA Remote Sensing Tutorial.


Increases in extreme heat will limit some operations and damage roads and rail
Increases in extreme heat will limit some operations and damage roads and rail

Changes in maintenance and

construction practices

Rise in rail buckling

Impacts to aircraft performance

and runway length

Increased use of energy for

refrigerated storage

Number of Days Over 100ºF

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario,

2080-2099


Preparing for change
Preparing for change… damage roads and rail

Robust transportation systems – reliability under a range of conditions

Use of new approaches to decision-making

Scenario planning

Probabilistic rather than deterministic approach

Risk assessment approach

Planning horizons (20 years) are not well-suited to the assessment of climate change impacts

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Lessons changes in demand for transportation services
Lessons damage roads and railChanges in demand for transportation services

Infrastructure will follow demand

Flooding of urban and rural settlements

Agricultural products


Lessons rolling adaptive processes not a quick fix
Lessons damage roads and railRolling adaptive processes, not a quick fix

Appropriate, pre-emptive actions will be less costly.

Climate uncertainty makes monitoring essential.

Risk Assessment

AdaptationResponse

GreaterResilience

20


Lessons planning for retirement
Lessons damage roads and railPlanning for retirement

Rebuild or retreat?

Time & Uncertainty

New Tools

Risk Management

Engineering Economy


For more information
For More Information damage roads and rail

“The Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure – The Gulf Coast Study, Phase I”

Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7

http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/sap4-7

“Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”

http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts

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