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SIP Development Process Overview For Triad Transportation Partners Requirements, Scenarios and Timelines. Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Eddie Dancausse, FHWA February 15, 2005. Outline. Background on PM2.5 standard General PM2.5 timeline What’s a SIP? Scenarios

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SIP Development Process OverviewFor Triad Transportation PartnersRequirements, Scenarios and Timelines

Laura Boothe, NCDAQ

Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ

Eddie Dancausse, FHWA

February 15, 2005

outline
Outline
  • Background on PM2.5 standard
  • General PM2.5 timeline
  • What’s a SIP?
  • Scenarios
    • Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Requirements

vs.

    • Attainment Demonstration SIP Requirements
background
Background
  • Annual PM2.5 standard
    • If a monitored design value is > 15.0 µg/m3, that monitor is violating the annual standard
    • The design value is defined as:
      • Annual mean concentration, averaged over 3 years
particulate matter what is it

PM2.5

(2.5 µm)

PM10

(10µm)

Particulate Matter: What is It?

A complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets

Hair cross section (70 mm)

Human Hair (70 µm diameter)

M. Lipsett, California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

public health risks are significant
Public Health Risks Are Significant

Particles are linked to:

  • Premature death from heart and lung disease
  • Aggravation of heart and lung diseases
    • Hospital admissions
    • Doctor and ER visits
    • Medication use
    • School and work absences
  • And possibly to
    • Lung cancer deaths
    • Infant mortality
    • Developmental problems in children, such as low birth weight
triad pm2 5 design values
Triad PM2.5 Design Values

Monitor

Lexington

Hattie Ave

Shattalon

Mendenhall

Cherry Grove

Burlington

County

Davidson

Forsyth

Forsyth

Guilford

Caswell

Alamance

01-03

15.8

14.6

14.0

14.1

13.3

13.7

pm2 5 nonattainment timeline
PM2.5 Nonattainment Timeline
  • Immediate (April 5, 2005)
    • New source review
  • One year
    • Transportation conformity
  • Three years
    • State Implementation Plan (SIP) – attainment demonstration
  • Five years (or as expeditiously as practicable)
    • Attain standard (Hickory & Triad)
pm2 5 nonattainment timeline definitions for triad area
PM2.5 Nonattainment TimelineDefinitions for Triad Area

April 5, 2005

April 5, 2006

April 5, 2008

April 5, 2010*

2007-2009

2009*

2005 or 2006

TBD

Effective date =

Transportation conformity date =

SIP submittal date =

Attainment date =

Data used to determine attainment =

(Modeling) Attainment year =

Redesignation base years =

Maintenance years =

* Or as early as possible

state implementation plan sip
State Implementation Plan (SIP)
  • Need a “SIP submittal” to EPA within three years
    • Attainment Demonstration that details the State’s plan to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard
  • Significant emission controls are already underway
    • Clean Smokestacks Act
    • Vehicle emissions testing
    • Ultra-Low sulfur fuels
    • Cleaner Engines
2 scenarios are possible
2 Scenarios are possible
  • Redesignation/Maintenance SIP
  • Attainment Demonstration SIP
scenario overviews
Scenario Overviews
  • Redesignation/Maintenance SIP
    • If area attains standard prior to attainment demonstration submittal date (April 5, 2008)
    • Package containing emissions estimates for the year the area came into attainment and maintenance years
    • Requires data for the year the area came into attainment and maintenance years
  • Attainment Demonstration SIP
    • Submittal 3 years after effective date (April 5, 2008)
    • Based on comprehensive modeling
    • Requires data for only the attainment year (2009)
redesignation maintenance sip process overview
Redesignation/Maintenance SIPProcess Overview
  • Area attains standard (2005 or 2006)
    • Develop emissions inventory for the year area attains standard
    • Develop maintenance emissions inventories for at least 10 years beyond redesignation approval
      • Determined through Inter-Agency Consultation Process
    • Develop interim/maintenance emissions inventories
      • 3 to 5 year increments
    • Compare maintenance emissions to attaining year’s emissions
      • Maintenance emissions must be lower than attaining year’s emissions… If not, control strategies must be developed
        • Or use modeling
redesignation maintenance sip process overview1
Redesignation/Maintenance SIPProcess Overview
  • Develop draft SIP package
    • Emissions comparisons
    • Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets
    • Contingency measures
  • Take draft SIP to public hearing
    • 30 day comment period
  • Submit to EPA anytime prior to April 2008
  • Update plan 8 years after redesignation
    • Must examine additional 10 years beyond final maintenance year in redesignation package
redesignation maintenance sip example timeline
Redesignation/Maintenance SIPExample Timeline
  • End of 2005 -> examine PM2.5 data
    • If the area attains
      • 2005 and maintenance years (e.g. 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) data needed for emissions estimates/comparisons
        • VMT and speeds
      • Contingency measures
        • NCDAQ define triggers and follow-up actions.
      • Set motor vehicle emissions budgets
        • Consultation process… What years?
        • Safety margins?
      • Public hearing
      • Request expeditious redesignation back to attainment/maintenance
        • Redesignation could be final as early as summer 2006
        • Conformity due 18 months after approval of Redesignation SIP
redesignation maintenance sip example timeline1
Redesignation/Maintenance SIPExample Timeline
  • End of 2005 -> examine PM2.5 data
    • If the area does not attain
      • Must start modeled attainment demonstration
      • Review 2006 PM2.5 data
        • Possibly start redesignation package
redesignation maintenance sip requirements of transportation partners
Redesignation/Maintenance SIPRequirements of transportation partners
  • VMT and speeds for attaining year and maintenance years
  • Participate in stakeholder meetings
  • Provide input on additional strategies (if needed) and contingency measures
  • Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets are set…
    • Input on which years to set budgets
    • County by County (NCDAQ’s general position)
    • Area wide (Need unanimous agreement with justification as to why)
  • Review package during public comment period
attainment demonstration sip process overview
Attainment Demonstration SIPProcess Overview
  • Modeling Attainment year = 2009
    • Attainment date April 5, 2010
  • Develop emissions inventory
    • 2002 inventories
    • 2009 attainment year inventory
  • Comprehensive modeling for 2002 and 2009
    • Modeling full year
    • Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test
    • If not, additional control strategies must be developed and modeled
attainment demonstration sip process overview1
Attainment Demonstration SIPProcess Overview
  • Clean Air Act requirement for Basic areas
    • Reasonable Available Control Measures (RACM)
  • Develop draft SIP package
    • Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year
    • Contingency measures
  • Take draft SIP to public hearing
    • 30 day comment period
  • Submit to EPA by April 2008
attainment demonstration sip example timeline
Attainment Demonstration SIPExample Timeline
  • Base year modeling underway
    • Collected (in 2004) VMT and speed data for 2002
  • Future year modeling will start Spring ‘05
    • 2009 VMT and speed data needed
    • Have needs of RACM been met?
      • Awaiting further guidance from USEPA
  • Future year emissions and air quality modeling
attainment demonstration sip example timeline1
Attainment Demonstration SIPExample Timeline
  • Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test
    • If not, additional control strategies must be developed and modeled
  • Develop draft SIP package
    • Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year
    • Contingency measures
  • Take draft SIP to public hearing
    • 30 day comment period
  • Submit to EPA by April 2008
attainment demonstration sip requirements of transportation partners
Attainment Demonstration SIPRequirements of transportation partners
  • VMT and speeds for modeled attainment year
  • Participate in stakeholder meetings
    • Technical update meetings
    • RACM development
    • Provide input on additional strategies (if needed) and contingency measures
    • Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets are set…
      • County by County (NCDAQ’s general position)
      • Area wide (Need unanimous agreement with justification as to why)
      • No safety margins
  • Review package during public comment period
vmt and speeds
VMT and Speeds
  • Attainment Demonstration (2009)
    • March 2005
  • Redesignation (2005/2006 & maintenance years)
    • October 2005 or October 2006
stakeholder meetings
Stakeholder Meetings
  • NCDAQ will host periodic technical updates on process
    • Spring and Fall 2005 at minimum
  • NCDAQ will host consultation meeting(s) on control strategy development (if needed) and contingency measures
  • RACM (if needed)

Will announce @ SICM meetings

review of sip package
Review of SIP Package
  • 30-45 days once package is made public
  • Will announce @ SICM meetings
motor vehicle emission budgets mvebs
Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs)
  • If area wide budget
    • Need unanimous agreement with justification as to why by February 2006
    • TAC resolution, NCDOT letter
  • Otherwise, county by county (sub-area budgets)
area wide
Area-Wide
  • Advantages
    • Budgets can be shared (if the SIP language allows this)
  • Disadvantages
    • MPOs/RPOs must collectively make a conformity determination
    • One MPO/RPO in the non-attainment area (NA) lapses, everyone lapses (assuming more than one MPO/RPO in the NA area)
sub area
Sub-Area
  • Advantages
    • Once conformity is established for entire NA area…..
      • Conformity determinations can be made for specific MPOs/RPOs (without impacting the entire NA area)
      • If one MPO/RPO within the NA lapses it does not impact remaining areas until their next conformity determination
sub area continued
Sub-Area (continued)

Disadvantages

  • Budgets cannot be shared
new standards
New Standards?
  • EPA has reviewed the PM2.5 standards
    • EPA Staff Paper - Draft out for comment
      • 15 µg/m3 annual standard
      • 25-35 µg/m3 - 24-hr standard (99th percentile)

Or

      • 12-14 µg/m3 annual standard
      • 35-40 µg/m3 - 24-hr standard (99th percentile)
new standards1
New Standards?

Fine Particulate (tentative schedule)

  • October 2004 Criteria Document
  • December 2005 EPA proposes New Standard
  • September 2006 EPA Finalizes New Standard
  • September 2008 EPA Promulgates
  • September 2011 States Submit SIPs
questions comments
Questions/Comments

http://ncair.org

Laura Boothe, Chief of Attainment Planning

919-733-1488

[email protected]

Mike Abraczinskas, Environmental Engineer II

919-715-3743

[email protected]

Eddie Dancausse, Air Quality Specialist

919-856-4330 x112

[email protected]

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