A quarterly expenditure measure for gdp for scotland
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A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland. SESCG. Best practice - IMF guidance. Accurate and timely data, not indirect techniques Consistent with annual equivalents Revisions necessary and made in a transparent manner Presented as a consistent time series

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A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland

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A quarterly expenditure measure for gdp for scotland

A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland

SESCG


Best practice imf guidance

Best practice - IMF guidance

  • Accurate and timely data, not indirect techniques

  • Consistent with annual equivalents

  • Revisions necessary and made in a transparent manner

  • Presented as a consistent time series

  • Sub components of GDP are also important series

  • Unadjusted data are the first and primary requirement


Requirements current price gdp e series

Requirements – Current Price GDP (E) series

Current price GDP (E)

Requirement

Availability

Ba

se year GDP (E)

4

Paasche price series

6

Laspeyres

quantity series

?


Requirements constant price gdp e series

Constant price GDP (E)

Requirement

Availability

Base year GDP (E) (e.g. 2003)

4

2007 volume inflators

4

Requirements – Constant Price GDP (E) series


Key expenditure components for volume inflation

Key expenditure components for volume inflation

  • Input-Output used to identify key components of demand

  • Source search to identify available proxy indicators

  • Increasing coverage of sources will increase accuracy

  • Assessment of sources using ESA / SNA indicators

    • Relevance

    • Accuracy

    • Timeliness & punctuality

    • Comparability

    • (Excl. accessibility & clarity as ex post indicators)


Summary of available sources

Summary of available sources


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Best: volume indicators for key components of final demand

  • Scotland has available data to deliver such a series

  • Meeting IMF guidelines:

    • Constant price series

    • Base year and volume inflation

    • Individual series for demand components

    • Comparability for UK benchmarking

  • Importance of base year weights from IO tables

    • Same source but different weights for GDP (E) and (O)


  • Recommendations next steps

    Recommendations / next steps

    • Scoping focus was to identify a positive way forward

      • No figures produced

  • Recommend development of an in-house pilot series

  • How best to deliver?

  • Issue of imports and exports to be discussed:

    • Good export data, but weaker on imports

  • Merit in individual series if not entire GDP (E)

    • E.g. improvement of investment data


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