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A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland

A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland. SESCG. Best practice - IMF guidance. Accurate and timely data, not indirect techniques Consistent with annual equivalents Revisions necessary and made in a transparent manner Presented as a consistent time series

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A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland

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  1. A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland SESCG

  2. Best practice - IMF guidance • Accurate and timely data, not indirect techniques • Consistent with annual equivalents • Revisions necessary and made in a transparent manner • Presented as a consistent time series • Sub components of GDP are also important series • Unadjusted data are the first and primary requirement

  3. Requirements – Current Price GDP (E) series Current price GDP (E) Requirement Availability Ba se year GDP (E) 4 Paasche price series 6 Laspeyres quantity series ?

  4. Constant price GDP (E) Requirement Availability Base year GDP (E) (e.g. 2003) 4 2007 volume inflators 4 Requirements – Constant Price GDP (E) series

  5. Key expenditure components for volume inflation • Input-Output used to identify key components of demand • Source search to identify available proxy indicators • Increasing coverage of sources will increase accuracy • Assessment of sources using ESA / SNA indicators • Relevance • Accuracy • Timeliness & punctuality • Comparability • (Excl. accessibility & clarity as ex post indicators)

  6. Summary of available sources

  7. Conclusions • Best: volume indicators for key components of final demand • Scotland has available data to deliver such a series • Meeting IMF guidelines: • Constant price series • Base year and volume inflation • Individual series for demand components • Comparability for UK benchmarking • Importance of base year weights from IO tables • Same source but different weights for GDP (E) and (O)

  8. Recommendations / next steps • Scoping focus was to identify a positive way forward • No figures produced • Recommend development of an in-house pilot series • How best to deliver? • Issue of imports and exports to be discussed: • Good export data, but weaker on imports • Merit in individual series if not entire GDP (E) • E.g. improvement of investment data

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