Presentation Transcript

1. Enid Housing Market Opportunities

   ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013
2. Purpose of Study Document Enid’s growth Evaluate housing market conditions Assess potential for new housing development Identify market obstacles Propose strategic solutions
3. Research Approach Define Study Area Garfield County
4. Research Approach In-person community visits – “windshield research” Drive-around overview Follow-up phone calls, other research Secondary source data gathering Demographics Economy Housing market
5. Research Approach Primary research Interviews Discussion groups Employee survey – nearly 500 responses Groups who participated: Employers Developers / builders City of Enid staff Realtors Others
6. Research Approach Synthesize quantitative data and qualitative information – “art and science” Perform “ballpark” quantitative demand analysis Refine and expand analysis with other data, qualitative findings, and professional judgment
7. Economic Context Garfield County has real, permanent job growth Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. Economic Context More permanent jobs coming Source: Autry Technology Center
9. Economic Context 2015 projection: nearly 1,700 jobs identified, approx. 800 permanent Does not include indirect impacts Sources: ERDA, Autry Technology Center, CDS Market Research
10. Demographic Trends Growing population and household count Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census
11. Demographic Trends Age trends: Little kids, 30s, and empty nesters growing Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census Sources: Enid ISD
12. Demographic Trends Education levels: Improving overall Bachelor’s or higher: equal to overall state level Slightly lower than OKC MSA level Sources: Bureau of the Census
13. Demographic Trends Higher-income hh increasing Lower-income hh decreasing Still skewed to lower ranges compared to state, OKC MSA Sources: Bureau of the Census
14. Demographic Trends Major income differences between home owner and renter population Median hh income: Owners $49,703 Renters $27,160 Sources: Bureau of the Census
15. Housing Profile Housing stock heavily skewed toward 1950 – 1979 (52.4%) 62.6% of renter hh in single family detached homes Sources: Bureau of the Census
16. Market Conditions - Rental Multifamily rentals: mostly old, very tight market Sources: Bass Construction, CDS Market Research
17. Market Conditions - Rental Single family rental market: Occupancies essentially 100% per largest Enid property manager Typical rent for well-maintained moderate quality house (2-3 br) $650 Up from 85% occupancy and $525 two years ago Not all landlords / managers meticulous about maintenance or tenant quality
18. Market Conditions - Rental Supply so tight that tenants renting below means and ability – settling for lower quality Well-paid professionals renting in 1970s-1980s construction Vance AFB, hospitals, police Rents typically <$750 One upscale multifamily property – Tuscana 100% occupancy and wait list Rents > $700 - $1,100
19. Market Conditions – For-Sale All signs point to sellers’ market May 2013 median price – 22% over May 2012, 34% over May 2011 Average Days on Market Median Sales Price Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research
20. Market Conditions – For-Sale Supply (months) Supply has plummeted Especially pronounced last 12 months Inventory Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research
21. Market Conditions – For-Sale Still large numbers of sales <$120,000 Number of Sales by Price Range Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research
22. Single Family Construction Drastic slowdown since 2011, despite demand Single family construction, Garfield County Sources: Garfield County Assessor, CDS Market Research
23. Single Family Construction Other Oklahoma markets better at supplying new homes during strong economy Single family permits per 10,000 residents Sources: Bureau of the Census, ERDA, CDS Market Research
24. Single Family Construction Permit values much higher since 2008 Enid single family new home permit values Sources: Bureau of the Census, ERDA, CDS Market Research
25. Employee Survey Online and paper survey promoted through Enid-area employers Nearly 500 responses Wide range of ages, household types, incomes
26. Employee Survey Recent movers had much more difficulty finding housing Difficulty of finding housing vs. when they last moved
27. Employee Survey Current housing monthly payments Strong bias toward low housing costs Willingness to pay for next home
28. Employee Survey Key reasons for a move: Home size (want larger) Lot size (want larger) Quality (want better) Neighborhood (want different) Strong preference for West Enid, for both owners and renters
29. Employee Survey Key housing selection factors: Price (over 70%) Size / number of bedrooms (over 70%) Physical condition (over 60%) Floor plan (over 50% owners, 33% renters) Neighborhood quality / character / amenities (44% owners, 37% renters) Safety / security / crime (36% owners, 44% renters)
30. Demand Analysis Examined historical ratios of population growth to job growth Low recent ratio – jobs drawing from pool of unemployed Unlikely to continue Sources: Bureau of the Census, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, CDS Market Research
31. Demand Analysis Apply jobs forecast and expected ratios of population growth, household size, and tenure Sources: Bureau of the Census, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, CDS Market Research
32. Market Opportunities - Rental Continued strong base demand for rentals, due to job growth, income levels, price of new housing Especially affordable and mid-price rentals (<$850) Limited supply, has not responded to demand Single family rental market harder to quantify but definitely very tight Reports of “doubling up”
33. Market Opportunities - Rental Market should support 250 to 400 units of new affordable rentals – mainly multifamily LIHTC projects (Roosevelt, Pheasant Run) Upscale rentals – 75 to 100 new units supportable Rents $750 to $1,100 Job growth + Vance AFB
34. Market Opportunities – For-Sale Supply-demand imbalance Lack of new construction during job growth Transfer of single family to rental market Development cost / willingness to pay mismatch Higher local construction costs Buyer preferences / constraints in pricing, features
35. Market Opportunities – For-Sale Demand perspective: overall need for 300 to 400 new single family homes by 2015 Household incomes indicate prime pricing range $175,000 to $250,000 30% to 50% of new homes should be in this range Development / construction cost constraints may limit market to $225,000 - $250,000 75 to 150 homes
36. Market Responsiveness - Key Issues High development and construction costs relative to larger markets Existential fear – is economic growth real? Coupled with concern over financial community understanding of market Lack of leadership and sense of purpose to prioritize housing development
37. Strategic Recommendations Organize for information exchange and dialogue Developers / builders Finance and lending Realtors Public officials
38. Strategic Recommendations Assemble and distribute housing market data and information Job growth (current and expected) Rental market conditions Single family lots Developable properties Incentives and assistance programs Infill neighborhoods
39. Strategic Recommendations Program to mitigate temporary workers impact Defray impacts on long term rental market Innovative temporary housing techniques Investigate underlying reasons for higher development / construction costs in Enid Potential for innovative, cooperative solutions
40. Strategic Recommendations Public incentives for new housing Special districts, infrastructure reimbursements, code compliance assistance Proactive land assembly / acquisition / development prep Examination of public development approval / inspection process
41. Strategic Recommendations Application of residential habitation standards and tenant civil behavior codes Helps infill housing market

42. Enid Housing Market Opportunities

    ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013