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Introduction. ITC's Market Analysis Tools and trade analysis. The UN body for design of policy recommendations to achieve economic and social development through trade and investment. The forum to negotiate multilateral trade rules, monitor their implementation and handle trade disputes.

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Introduction l.jpg

Introduction

ITC's Market Analysis Tools and trade analysis


What is itc l.jpg

The UN body for design of policy recommendations to achieve economic and social development through trade and investment.

The forum to negotiate multilateral trade rules, monitor their implementation and handle trade disputes

ITC works with local and regional institutions and businesspeople to promote exports and trade.

What is ITC?

  • Mission

    ITC enables small business export success in developing countries by providing, with partners, trade development solutions to the private sector, trade support institutions and policy-makers


Itc activities l.jpg

ITC Development Outcomes

ITC Clients

Activities

ITC Beneficiaries

PolicyMakers

Business and Trade Policy

Export Impact for GoodGenerating sustainableincomes and livelihoodsespecially for poorhouseholds, by connectingenterprises to global markets

Export Strategy

Micro,Small andMedium-SizedExporters

TradeSupportInstitutions

Trade Intelligence

Trade Support Institution

BusinessCommunity

Exporter Competitiveness

One

Many

ITC activities

One


Itc organisational chart l.jpg

ITC organisational chart


Mar activities l.jpg

MAR activities

III. Capacity Building and Training

I. Market Analysis Tools

II. Tailored Analysis

Trade Map

Introduction to Market Analysis

Trade Competitiveness Assessment

Market Access Map

Export Potential Assessment

Preparation of Market Profiles

Investment Map

Export Opportunity Scan

Training–of–Trainers

Mentoring for Tailored Analyses

Sector Competitiveness Scan

Trade Competitiveness Map

Customised analyses

Face-to-face and E-training

Customised training


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Workshop objectives

  • Understand some of the main trends in the current global trade environment

  • Introduce ITC's Market Analysis Tools and become knowledgeable in their use

  • Gain an insight into how these tools can facilitate trade analysis


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Some trends...

...of the current trading environment


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Trade is enormous...

Trade in goods in 2007

$13,700,000,000,000

or $420,000 per second

  • Globalization has accelerated over the last 20 years

  • The volume of trade as a percentage of global GDP has more than doubled since 1960


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...and it's more dynamic than the economy...

World Trade vs. GDP Growth

1960-2007

Source: WTO


But it s not immune to the downturn l.jpg

... but it's not immune to the downturn...

Annual Growth of Imports by Level of Development of Countries

2002-2007

Source: ITC Trade Map


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...although downturn is not uniform...

GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2005-07Annual % change at constant prices

Source: WTO


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... and 2009 will be a tough year

Growth of trade volumesAnnual % change

Developing country exports

World trade

Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2009


Global trade patterns are changing l.jpg

Global trade patterns are changing...

  • Trade flows within regions account for a higher share of world trade than flows between regions

  • Asia Pacific & EU trade more within the region

  • However many regions trade more with other regions than internally: Africa, South and Central America, Middle East and CIS


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...with developing countries gaining ground...

Share of Global Trade by Level of Development% of Total Trade

Source: ITC analysis based on world trade statistics


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...and "south-south" trade growing fast...

Top 25 markets for developing countries

Source: ITC Trade Map


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…but mostly intra-region…

Asia Pacific

Intra-Trade: $ 1’121bn

or 55% of S-S Trade

$ 66bn

$ 50bn

$ 45bn

$ 109bn

$ 256bn

Latin America

$ 10bn

Africa

Intra-Trade: $126bnor 6% of S-S Trade

Intra-Trade: $27 bnor 1% of S-S Trade

$ 7bn

$ 8bn

$ 16bn

$ 109bn

Middle Eastand Arab

$ 6bn

$ 12bn

Intra-Trade: $62bnor 3% of S-S Trade

Total 2007 S-S Trade: $2’157 billion

Source: ITC


The mix of products traded is changing l.jpg

The mix of products traded is changing...

Global trade by type of commodity% of total trade

Source: ITC Trade Map


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... but not all sectors are equally successful

The best performing exports from developing country exporters tend to be manufactured products, as opposed to commodities


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Trade in services grows quickly...

Trade in Services as % of GDP1975 – 2007

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank


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...significantly due to FDI...

  • In spite of quick growth in traded value, over the past 30 years the share of services, excluding Mode 3 (commercial presence), in global trade has been quite stable around 20%

  • BUT, Mode 3 is not captured in current trade in services statistics

  • FDI data shows that more than half of FDI flows are in the services sector

  • FDI keeps on growing globally...


Which is ever more important l.jpg

…which is ever more important

FDI as % of World GDP1985 – 2007

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank


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Number of Existing Trade Agreements 1960 – 2007All countries, all types of agreements

Market access issues are changing:

  • Trade agreements proliferate...

Source: WTO


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… reducing tariffs…

Applied MFN Tariffs, All Products, By Level of Income

Source: World Trade Indicators, World Bank


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… and making NTMs more important

NTM FrequencyBy Level of Income, 2001

Source: World Trade Indicators, World Bank


Business environment matters l.jpg

Business environment matters…

Source: World Bank Doing Business Report 2009


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...because it affects trade, inter alia

Source: World Trade Indicators 2008, World Bank


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Register to access ITC’s Market Analysis Tools


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Free to users from developing countries

Thanks to financial contributions from ITC's Global Trust Fund and the World Bank, as of the 1st January 2008, all users from developing countries and territories may access ITC's market analysis tools free of charge.

http://www.intracen.org/mat


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Free to users from developing countries


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Trade Map

A web-based trade flow analysis tool


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Introduction

  • An exporter of pineapples is looking to diversify its client base…Which country should be targeted?

  • A shoe exporter needs an overview of trade barriers he/she would face for exports to Malaysia…

  • A trade mission needs to know our top export products to Germany…

  • Where could you import automotive components from?Who are the largest suppliers in your region?

  • What is the current trade between your country and the United States?

Initial answers to these questions and many more are easily found in Trade Map


Trade map34 l.jpg

Trade Map

  • Online application to produce reports on international trade flows

    • Every product (HS-6) to and from (almost) every country

  • Based on probably the largest trade flow database in the world

  • User-friendly interface, report-ready outputs

  • Flexibility for customising reports, analysis

  • Graphic presentation of outputs to facilitate analysis


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Key characteristics

  • Where does the data come from?

    • National Authorities

    • COMTRADE, produced by the United Nations Statistics Division database

  • What is Trade Map’s geographical coverage?

    • Information for over 220 countries and territories using data reported by 160 countries and territories

    • Data for non-reporting countries is spawned from mirror statistics

  • What is Trade Map’s product coverage?

    • For the Harmonized System

      • over 5,300 products at the 6 digit level

    • For the National Tariff Line

      • up to 30,000 products for 90 countries (~84% of world trade)

  • What is Trade Map’s time horizon?

    • Yearly, quarterly and monthly data


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Data classification

  • The Harmonized System (HS)

    • Is used as a basis for the collection of Custom duties and international trade statistics by almost all countries, representing about 98% of world trade

    • Developed by the World Customs Organisation – WCO (www.wcoomd.org)

    • Implemented late 1980s.

    • Harmonised different existing nomenclatures

    • Adopted by almost all countries in the world

    • Basis for all trade conversations internationally

    • Main revisions in 1996 and 2007


Data classification37 l.jpg

More and more specific

HS-2

HS-4

HS-6

Data classification

  • The Harmonized System (HS)

    • Is a numerical classification system of products used as a basis for international trade statistics by almost all countries.

    • is harmonized up to six digits (HS-6) - You can compare HS data between countries.

    • Is broken down into 3 clusters:

      • HS-2: the chapter of the good (sector)

        • E.g. 09 = Coffee, Tea, Mate and Spices

      • HS-4: groupings within the chapter (sub-sector)

        • E.g. 0902 = Tea, whether or not flavoured

      • HS-6: product(s) within the grouping (product level)

        • E.g. 090210 = Green tea (not fermented)


Data classification38 l.jpg

HS-2

HS-4

HS-6

NTL

Data classification

  • National Tariff Lines (NTL) codes

    • Classification of goods after the 6 digit level of the Harmonized System classification.

    • National Tariff Lines go from 8 digits to 12 digits.

  • Why use the HS and NTL classification?

    • The HS classification is standardised internationally

    • The NTL classification is not standardised internationally.

      Each country decides its own further classification after the Harmonized System. Hence, National Tariff Line codes can be different from a country to another.

More and more specific


Data classification39 l.jpg

Data classification

HS(International standard)

08Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons.

08.04Dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, fresh or dried.

08.04.50Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens.

Australia

08.04.50.00Fresh or dried guavas, mangoes and mangosteens

Japan

08.04.50.01.1Mangoes, fresh

08.04.50.01.9Guavas and mangosteens, fresh

United States:

08.04.50.40.40Mangoes, fresh, if entered during the period from September 1, in any year, to the following May 31, inclusive

08.04.50.60.80Guavas and mangosteens, fresh, if entered during the period from June 1 to August 31, of the following year, inclusive

08.04.50.80.00Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, dried

NTL(NONstandard)


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Market Access Map

Information on tariffs and other market access conditions


Market access l.jpg

Market Access

  • Information on market access conditions allows exporters to:

    • Evaluate the competitiveness of the product relative to suppliers from other countries under different tariff schemes

    • Select markets/market segments in which the product has the best prospects

    • Adapt, where necessary, the product to conform to the target market’s import regulations


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Types of tariffs

  • Ad valorem tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of the value

    • Used by most countries; more than 87% of tariffs worldwide are ad valorem


Ad valorem tariffs l.jpg

  • French wine:

  • AUD 8 / litre

  • New Zealand wine:

  • AUD 6 / litre

Tariff paid:AUD 0.40 /litre

Tariff paid:AUD 0.30 /litre

Ad valorem tariffs

E.g. Australian tariff of 5% on imported wine (22.04.21.20.70)

Tariff per unit = Price * Rate


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Types of tariffs

  • Ad valorem tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of the value

    • Used by most countries: more than 87% of tariffs worldwide are ad valorem

  • Specific tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of volume or weight

    • Users of specific tariffs include (% of MFN tariff lines): Switzerland (79.8%), Thailand (21.9%), Russia (12.2%), Argentina (12.1%), Belarus (11.9%), USA (8.2%), EU (4.6%)


Specific tariffs change relative prices l.jpg

Before border

After the border

The prime beef is now only 1.4 times the price of the low quality beef, but still 4 times the quality

The prime beef is 4 times the price of the low quality beef, but also 4 times the quality

At border

=150% ad valorem equivalent

CHF18 specific tariff per kilo

= 600% ad valorem equivalent

CHF30 / kg Argentine prime quality beef

CHF21 / kgregularbeef

CHF12 / kg Argentine prime quality beef

CHF3 / kg beef

Specific tariffs change relative prices

E.g. Switzerland's tariff on beef of CHF18 / kilo (02.01.30)


Types of tariffs46 l.jpg

Types of tariffs

  • Ad valorem tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of the value

    • Used by most countries: more than 87% of tariffs worldwide are ad valorem

  • Specific tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of volume or weight

    • Users of specific tariffs include (% of MFN tariff lines): Switzerland (79.8%), Thailand (21.9%), Russia (12.2%), Argentina (12.1%), Belarus (11.9%), USA (8.2%), EU (4.6%)

  • Combined tariffs:

    • Contain both ad valorem and specific rates

    • Eg: 10% of the value + $2 per kilogram (Japan, EU, Canada)


Compound tariffs l.jpg

Tariff = USD801

AVE = 13%

Tariff = USD665

AVE = 21%

Compound tariffs

  • Chocolate from Switzerland: USD 6,356 / ton

  • Chocolate from Brazil: USD 3,181 / ton

E.g. USA tariff on chocolate of 4.3% and USD528 / ton (18.06.32.08)

Tariff:

4.3% Ad ValoremUSD273 Tariff

+ USD528/ton SpecificUSD528 Tariff

Tariff:

4.3% Ad ValoremUSD137 Tariff

+ USD528/ton SpecificUSD528 Tariff


Types of tariffs48 l.jpg

Types of tariffs

  • Mixed tariffs:

    • Minimum or maximum of two kinds of tariffs

    • Eg: Min or Max (10%, $2/kg) (Canada, EU, Japan)


Mixed tariffs l.jpg

Tariff = USD300

AVE= 30%

Tariff = USD36

AVE= 120%

Mixed tariffs

  • Manolo Blahnik shoes: USD1,000 /pair

  • Clark's shoes: USD30 /pair

e.g. Japanese tariff on shoes: Max. of 30% or JPY4,300 Yen / pair

Tariff: the maximum of

30% Ad ValoremUSD300 Tariff

Or JPY4,300/pair (USD36) SpecificUSD36 Tariff

Tariff: the maximum of

30% Ad ValoremUSD9 Tariff

Or JPY4,300/pair (USD36) SpecificUSD36 Tariff


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Types of tariffs

  • Mixed tariffs:

    • Minimum or maximum of two kinds of tariffs

    • Eg: Min or Max (10%, $2/kg) (Canada, EU, Japan)

  • Variable tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of the composition of the products

    • Eg:USD5/unit if lead content of paint > 2% on toys

    • USD200/unit on fridges if cooling system is not CFC-free


Types of tariffs51 l.jpg

Types of tariffs

  • Mixed tariffs:

    • minimum or maximum of two kinds of tariffs

    • Eg: Min or Max (10%, $2/kg) (Canada, EU, Japan)

  • Variable tariffs:

    • Levied on the basis of the composition of the products

    • Eg:USD5/unit if lead content of paint > 2% on toys

    • USD200/unit on fridges if cooling system is not CFC-free

  • Tariff quotas:

    • A two tiered tariff. A lower in-quota tariff is applied to the first Q units of imports and a higher over-quota tariff is applied to all subsequent imports.


Macmap includes ad valorem equivalents l.jpg

MAcMap includes ad valorem equivalents

  • Ad Valorem Equivalents – AVE:

    • Are a common measure of the effect of the different types of tariff on the product, as if they were all ad valorem.

    • Are calculated for specific, mixed, compound or variable tariffs and anti-dumping rates and countervailing duties

    • Are calculated by:

      AVE = Particular Tariff per Unit Unit Value

    • Allow for regional or sectoral tariffs to be added and compared

    • Allow for comparison of effective levels of protection across countries.

  • The total AVE is the sum of all individual ad valorem equivalents


Common types of trade agreements l.jpg

Common types of trade agreements

  • Partial Scope Agreement: reduces trade restrictions between partner countries for a few products

  • Free Trade Zone/Agreement/Area: eliminates trade barriers within the zone (FTA, RTA, etc.)

  • Customs Union: free trade zone + common external tariff

  • Common Market: customs union + free flow of factors of production within region (capital, labour)

  • Economic Union: unification/harmonization of economic policies: monetary policy, fiscal policy, regulatory regimes…


Proliferation of ftas l.jpg

Proliferation of FTAs

Number of Free Trade Agreements 1960 – 2007

Source: World Trade Organization


Eu existing trade regimes l.jpg

GSP

NMF

OMC

EBA

GSP+

Interim EPA

EEA

EU-EAC

EU-CARIFORUM

Euro-Med

Others non-reciprocal

Bilateral

EU existing trade regimes

Maldives

China

Qatar

U.A.E

Bahrain

Afghanistan

Djibouti

Bangladesh

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Oman

Ethiopia

Macao

Benin

Yemen

Sudan

Senegal

Somalia

Togo

Australia

Nepal

Congo Dem.Rep.

Bhutan

Eq. Guinea

Angola

New Zealand

Honduras

Chad

Gambia

Mauritania

Kiribati

Burkina Faso

Panama

Laos

United States

El Salvador

Canada

Myanmar*

Cape Verde

Guinea-Bissau

Samoa

Georgia

Sao Tome

Sierra Leone

Guinea

Cuba

Japan

Guatemala

Pakistan

Ctrl. Afr. Rep.

Hong Kong

Malawi

Niger

Mali

Tuvalu

Armenia

Eritrea

Nicaragua

Vanuatu

Cambodia

Argentina

Taiwan

Singapore

Korea, Rep.

Mongolia

Lesotho

India

Costa Rica

East Timor

Mozambique

Brazil

Paraguay

Madagascar

Zambia

Uganda

Sri Lanka

Bolivia

Liberia

Rwanda

Norway

Burundi

Comoros

Uruguay

Venezuela

Peru

Tanzania

Iceland

Haiti

Solomon Isl.

Ecuador

Liechtenstein

Grenada

Jamaica

Guyana

Belize

Kenya

Gabon

Colombia

Greenland

Bahamas

Suriname

Barbados

Dominica

Trinidad

Fiji

Nigeria

Switzerland

Guam

St. Vincent

St. Kitts

St. Lucia

Tonga

Papua NG

Montserrat

Antigua

Dominican Rep.

Namibia

Congo

Mexico

Albania

Chile

Croatia

Nauru

Swaziland

Palau

Ukraine

San Marino

Ivory Coast

South Africa

Macedonia

Kyrgyzstan

F. Polynesia

Botswana

Mauritius

Ghana

Andorra

Cook Is.

Bosnia

Vietnam

Micronesia

Seychelles

Cameroon

Zimbabwe

Marshall Is.

Brunei

Philippines

Turkey

Tokelau

Moldova

Cayman Is.

Antartica

Malaysia

Jordan

Egypt

Bermuda

Thailand

Israel

Serbia

Libya

Tunisia

St. Piere.

Indonesia

Azerbaijan

Aruba

Am. Samoa

Mayotte

Belarus*

Morocco

Kosovo

St. Helena

Gibraltar

Niue

Iran

Iraq

Uzbekistan

Russia

Turkmenistan

Palestine

Syria

Algeria

Montenegro

Turks

Tajikistan

B.I.O.T.

Norfolk Is.

Pitcairn

Anguilla

Kazakhstan

Wallis

Cocos Is.

McDonald Is.

N. Mariana Is.

New Caledonia

Bouvet Is.

Christmas Is.

Netherlands Antilles

S. Sandwich Is.

Falkland Is.

Lebanon

EACEast African Community

EBAEverything but arms

EEAEuropean Economic Area

SGPSistema General de Preferecias

Euro-MedEuro-Mediterranean Partnership

* Belarus and Myanmar (LDC) are temporarily suspended from the GSP regime


Implications l.jpg

Implications

  • Almost every country in the world is member to an ever increasing number of trade agreements

  • Every trade agreement has its own rules of origin

  • It is difficult to keep up-to-date on what tariffs are applied and faced by your country and your competitor countries

  • It is confusing to understand what are the best conditions you face to access one specific market

  • It is key to have more clarity and transparency on what tariffs and rules of origin apply to specific products in specific markets


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Features of MAcMap

  • Wide geographical coverage:

    • tariffs applied by 169 countries to the products exported by over 200 countries and territories

  • Wide coverage of instruments:

    • ad-valorem tariffs; specific tariffs; tariff quotas and antidumping duties

  • Preferences:

    • Covers most bilateral and regional agreements

    • Rules of Origin and Certificates of origin also included for most agreements

  • Analytical flexibility:

    • Permits any analysis: by region, by economic sector or by measure


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MAcMap: sources of data

  • Market Access Map is continuously updated. Data is sourced from:

    • Applied tariff data is collected by ITC directly from national customs institutions

    • Tariff quota data from WTO (agricultural notification of tariff quota) and national sources for bilateral and regional tariff quota agreements

    • Trade data from national sources, IDB (integrated database), WTO and the COMTRADE database of the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD).


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Investment Map

For an improved identification of opportunitiesfor FDI attraction


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What is it?

  • An interactive tool that combines statistics on FDI, international trade, tariffs and information on foreign affiliates for better investment targeting and promotion

  • A joint undertaking

    • Between the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the International Trade Centre (UNCTAD/WTO)

    • In partnership with:

      • Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)

      • World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA)


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Main features

  • Integrates data on

    • FDI flows and stocks

    • Trade flows

    • Tariffs

    • Information on activities of foreign affiliates in developing countries

  • Presents data and analyses in multi-functional dimensions and graphs

  • Links to other related resources:

    • UNCTAD World Investment Directory and Investment Compass

    • World Bank and third party indicators on business environment

    • World Bank privatisation database


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Geographic coverage

  • Total FDI flows and stocks for around 80 countries and territories

  • FDI flows and stocks partially classified by up to 150 industries (ISIC rev 3)

    • covering goods and services in approximately 60 developing and transition economies

  • Trade and tariff data covering over 180 countries and territories

  • Information on the location, sales, employment and parent company for around 74,000 foreign affiliates in developing countries


Sources of data l.jpg

Sources of Data

  • Foreign Direct Investment: UNCTAD and ITC

  • Trade data: Trade Map (ITC)

  • Tariffs: Market Access Map (ITC)

  • Activities on Foreign Affiliates: Dun & Bradstreet Database


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Data limitations

  • FDI

    • International reporting practices (IMF BOPMV; OECD,2004) are not followed uniformly

    • Countries that report often do so with considerable time lag

    • FDI data are affected by:

      • Identification of ultimate owner

      • Valuation problems of FDI stocks

      • Round-tripped investment and transhipped investment

  • Foreign affiliates

    • Data on foreign affiliates vary from country to country

    • Data available ONLY for developing countries

    • Dependant on quality of business registration information


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Data limitations

  • Different data classifications:

    • FDI data cannot always be allocated accurately to a given industry or a given country

      • Investment flows may fall under multiple activities

    • Foreign affiliates are based on the United States nomenclature, US SIC87.

    • Its conversion to the ISIC nomenclature can only be approximative

    • Trade data (HS 6 digit level) are converted into the ISIC classification.


Measuring fdi l.jpg

Measuring FDI

FDI flows

  • Are the total amount of FDI undertaken over a given period of time (quarter, year), and they comprise:

    • Net sales of shares with the parent company (10% participation threshold)

    • Net intra-company loans (short- and long- term) with the parent company

    • Reinvested earnings of a foreign affiliate in the host country

  • Sources: Central Banks and/or Statistical offices


Measuring fdi68 l.jpg

Measuring FDI

FDI stocks

  • Are the total accumulated value of foreign-owned assets at a given time, and they comprise:

    • The value of the share of their capital and reserves belonging to foreign companies

    • The net indebtedness with the parent companies

  • Sources: Balance sheets or enterprise surveys


Measuring fdi69 l.jpg

Stocks and flows are related over time:

Stockt = Stockt-1 + Flowt

Flowt = Stockt – Stockt-1

Flow

Stock

Flow

Measuring FDI


Measuring fdi70 l.jpg

Measuring FDI

  • Flows are named according to the OWNERSHIP or Origin of the money, not the direction of the flow:

    • INflows = FOREIGN money

    • OUTflows = DOMESTIC money


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Structure of tool

  • Module 1: Identify industries for inward investment

    • Foreign Direct Investment: e.g. inflows, stocks, changes, etc

    • Foreign affiliates: e.g. number of affiliates, number of employees, leading parent company and investor country, addresses, etc

    • International Trade: e.g. exports, imports, changes, etc

    • Tariffs: Maximum, minimum and average tariff faced and applied, etc

  • Module 2: Identify competing locations

    • Similar information for competing locations for a specific industry

  • Module 3: Identify investor countries

    • Similar information for the main investor countries for a specific industry

  • Module 4: Analyse investor profile

    • Similar information classified per industry for any specific investor country


When in doubt http www intracen org mat l.jpg

When in doubt... http://www.intracen.org/MAT

  • Contains:

  • Video tutorials

  • User guides

  • FAQs


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Workshop evaluation

http://www.intracen.org/mas/usersfeedback.htm

And click on Online Survey

Or go directly to http://www.intracen.org/eSurvey/survey.aspx?surveyid=193


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