The PEV market: trends, challenges & opportunities

1. The PEV market: trends, challenges & opportunities Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center: phev.ucdavis.edu www.WorldEVCities.org Generation 0 Vehicles.

2. HEV market developed in 3 phases: Japan: 3rd generation HEV sales reached 19% in 2012, Prius is best selling vehicle 4 years in row California:3rd generation HEV sales reached 7-8% 2012, Prius best selling vehicle in CA in 2012 (60,000) USA: 3rd generation HEV sales 3-4%, 2012 = 434,645 Generation 3 HEVs Early core market: 6-15% of market Generation 2 HEVs Generation 1 HEVs Fast followers: 3-5% of market Early market:1-2% 2014 2010 1996 (Japan) 2004

3. USA: How are we doing so far with PEVs? US HEVs (2 yrs from launch )

4. USA sales 1st gen PHEVs: 9 quarters 2011-13

5. USA sales 1st gen BEVs; 9 quarters 2011-13

6. PEV market: glass half empty or half full? • Stated annual USA PEV sales goals of car makers • Volt goals 45,000 - actual 2012 sales 23,500 • Leaf goals 20,000 - actual 2012 sales 9,819 • Climate & energy independence goals • California - 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 (5% of CA fleet) • USA: Obama - 1 million PEVs by 2015 (.3 % of USA fleet) • Germany, France – 1 million EVs by 2020

7. Size of potential PEV market in California • 1991-95, 4 year, 4 step UCD study: • A detailed project based on values, resources, vehicle purchase habits & travel needs of 600 CA households • Main assumptions: • Hybrid household hypothesis: 2 vehicles: 1 BEV & 1 • 80-120 miles of BEV range, PHEV 20 & 40 • PEVs in midsize to compact sedans, priced close to ICE, • Competition from gasoline, CNG, diesel • no FCVs, no HEVs • Gasoline was $1.50, middle of SUV market growth • BEVs: 15% of California annual sales • PHEVs: not as well understood, potentially larger depending on prices… • CNGs: less than 5%

8. Household Resources: A Small Percentage of Californians are Responsible for Most New Car Purchases Based on the CA sample of the NHTS 2009 (about 33% of the new vehicles sold.) (about 67% of the new vehicles sold.) (In the last five years)

9. Regulation: California Air Resources Board ZEV Program Governor’s Executive Order 2013 Other states “adopting” CA rules: Oregon, Washington, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island

10. Current PEV price comparison

11. PEV Incentives

12. Market trends in California for PEVs • USA: • 250 million LDV vehicles • About 15 million vehicles sold per year • California: • 23 million light duty vehicles total, • About 1.5 million vehicles sold per year (10% of USA) • California PEV trends: • More than 25,000 PEVs bought since 2010 • 45% of PEVs are BEVs vs. 34% in the US market. • PEV Sales last quarter of 2012: • 2.5% of cars (1 in 40) (not including 138,000 trucks) 6,000 out of 232,512 cars sold in California

13. Social context: PEVs sales in California are mostly in coastal communities 2010-2012 • Regionalization of sales • California coastal cities, Portland, Seattle, Washington, • California Incentives: • $2500 for ZEV & Advanced Technology (Volt), • Allowed to drive in high occupant vehicle lanes (HOV)

14. BEVs are in the core areas & PHEVs are in the suburbs (so far) BEV to PHEV ratio

15. 2007 UCD survey: 53% of US new car buyers have a 110 plug within 25 ft. of where they park at night Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008

16. Those with detached houses & garages were more likely to have home recharge potential Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008

17. California PEV Household Characteristics 2012 • 95% of the vehicles are owned by private individuals, 4% by businesses & 1% by government & NGOs • 83% have yearly income higher than $100K • 46% incomes is higher than $150K • 16% decline to state. • 96% live in single family dwelling • 96% own their house • 1% rent in San Diego study • 5% rent in other areas • 42% have solar panels • 18% consider installation • 40% have no plan to install • Mostly men, middle age, but shifting

18. Household Fleet Changes With the New BEV

19. Understanding the Additional Vehicles

20. Hybrids May Serve as a Gateway to Plug-ins but they are not replaced by the Leaf

21. Sales are often clustered, with surprising density in some neighborhoods

22. “Range Anxiety”

23. BMW chose us to work with them on their MINI-E experiment in 2009-10, so we got to do some BEV anthropology • 1-year lease at $850/mo. + tax • In-home charging stations (no public charging) • Out of 550 MINI Es worldwide, 450 in US PHEV center surveyed over 150 MINI E drivers & interviewed 39 households during the year

24. MINI E owners learn a lot about electricity, more than they knew about gasoline • How far can I drive on a kWh? • Understanding of costs, efficiency • Regenerative braking new • Driving style and feeling for energy use

25. Most liked the MINI E & while it was impractical for some trips, drivers engaged in developing their own EV Territory • EV driving zone • Quiet driving experience • Charging locations • BEV community • Geography of BEVs (distances, uphills, downhills, routes) • Technology for this zone (GIS systems)

26. MINI E drivers were most enthusiastic about the intersection of clean & fun • Strong value intersection for buyers • MINI E was quiet, smooth, easy to drive, fast • Electric vehicle has special place in public values

27. New vehicle introduction takes time…

28. PEVs (BEVs & PHEVs) market development 1st generation PEVs: partial conversions, loss leaders, ¼ scale production (less than 100,000 annual) 1st buyers (pioneers): High income, future focus, educated, willing to take risks. Very regionalized: coastal Calif, Japan, Oslo, Portland Oregon: tech industries, regulations, high incentives Charging system: home based, minimal public charging in non-optimal locations, Generation 3 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs Generation 1 PEVs Early core market: 6-15% of market 1-2% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market 2022 2010 2014 2018

29. 2nd generation PEVs market development Generation 2 PEVs: purchases simplified, mass production, improved performance, dedicated platforms, Fast followers: high income, still “future” focused, tech followers but social leaders in networks of first buyers Market: intensifies in same regions Charging system: simpler & optimized Generation 3 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs 3-5% of market Early core market: 6-15% of market Generation 1 PEVs Early buyers 1-2% 2010 2022 2014 2018

30. Designing an optimal charger network

31. Charging surveys: What constraints do they face and what do they want?Charging models: What do we think they want & need?(Home, workplace, public, DC fast network design tools)Data acquisition: What, where & when do they charge?(need to monitor charge use- disaggregated through vehicle systems) (also issues of etiquette, social practice) Charge network design & rollout? Location, type, density, redundancy Drs. Michael Nicholas, Gil Tal Justin Woodjack

32. Point of Diminishing Returns Reached at 200 DC Fast Charge Locations -model created with 1 day record for 30,000 California drivers

33. Survey Results (What do people want?)More than 1000 Leaf household responses • Charging is needed (regional systems) • 80% of drivers went to “1 bar” 8% • 40% of drivers exceeded “home-based” range • 7% would need charging to return from work • Charging is used • 30% charge out of home regularly • Level 1 is used more than level 2 at work (53%) • Level 2 is used more than level 1 elsewhere (78%) • Charging is wanted • 65% of Leaf owners suggested charger locations, mostly DC QC • Median distance home-QC was 44 miles (71 km)

34. Survey: Where do People Want Chargers?

35. Charger Choices in San Diego

36. Charger Choices in San Diego

37. Charger Choices in San Diego

38. Charger Choices in San Diego

39. Charger Choices in San Diego

40. Given Only 5 Choices, Priority is Home Area

41. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

42. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

43. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

44. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% • L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

45. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% • L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

46. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% • L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

47. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% • L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% • QC accommodates up to 10% additional • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh. = 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%

48. What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) • L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% • L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% • QC accommodates up to an additional 10% EV miles • Home Charging VMT • 60 Mile Veh.= 59% • 80 Mile Veh. = 71% • 100 Mile Veh. = 79%