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November 24-25 , 2011 APEC-IOT conference , Singapore

November 24-25 , 2011 APEC-IOT conference , Singapore. Towards a Generalized Framework for Input-Output Relations in the APEC Area. Masaaki Kuboniwa. Institute of Economic Research Hitotsubashi University. Background. From Gross to Net Concept

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November 24-25 , 2011 APEC-IOT conference , Singapore

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  1. November 24-25 , 2011 APEC-IOT conference , Singapore Towards a Generalized Framework for Input-Output Relations in the APEC Area Masaaki Kuboniwa Institute of Economic Research Hitotsubashi University

  2. Background • From Gross to Net Concept 1. From gross output to net output (VA; GDP) I-O economics became less popular despite IOT’s necessity for the accurate GDP estimate. 2. From gross trade to “net” trade From local to global production network /global environmental relations I-O economics and IOT are revived in an international perspective.

  3. From gross to “net” trade • Primary factor content of trade • International IOT ; tracking the direct and indirect requirements for domestic and foreign intermediate inputs (I-A) -1 (b) Requirements for primary factor inputs; value added ratios (VA-to-output ratios)；V Tracking the full requirements for primary factor inputs V(I-A) -1

  4. Literature • Trefler and Zyu (2010) Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek factor content of trade prediction international IO • Koopman, Powers, Wang and Wei (2010) NBER WP The complete exposition of static IO theory frame; VAs+Imports =gross FDs • IDE/WTO (2011) marked impact • Dietzenbacher and Los (2010) mimeo Incomplete exposition of factor content of trade

  5. Toward Further generalizations in theory and applications • Specification of factor inputs by category (capital stock, labor and natural wealth) • Specification of tradable factor inputs by country origin; a dynamic setup

  6. Database • Asian IO 2005 (IDE et al)? (Yokohama NU)?? • BRICS IO 2005 (IDE et al) ? • 26 countries/41 sectors 2004 (USITC) ?? • WIOT (Groningen U) ??? • EU21-IO 2005 (Hitotsubashi U - Prof. Yoshinaga) Incomplete databases; Need to check and trace each IOT before tracing value added High reliability of data on country-specific value added ratio by sector given country practices

  7. Non-generalization Directions • 1Non-competitive (Isard, 1951) type of input-coefficients results in an accurate analysis for the given period whereas this is likely to hamper the stability of input coefficients which is desirable for a timely forecasting analysis. • 2 Value added induced by final demand results in a meaningful analysis based on accurate data. Sustainable compilation of data set. • 3 Even macro data on foreign trade might be rather questionable for some countries such as China and Russia. Value-added ratios, GDP and industrial production

  8. EU-21 2005

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