Multiattribute utility theory
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Multiattribute Utility Theory. concepts application examples. Objectives. ECONOMIC POLICY maximize production equalize distribution GOVERNMENT POLICY reconcile many interest groups BUSINESS reconcile short run/long run tradeoffs utlize long range planning (maintenance, labor).

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Multiattribute Utility Theory

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Multiattribute utility theory

Multiattribute Utility Theory

concepts

application

examples


Objectives

Objectives

  • ECONOMIC POLICY

  • maximize production

  • equalize distribution

  • GOVERNMENT POLICY

  • reconcile many interest groups

  • BUSINESS

  • reconcile short run/long run tradeoffs

  • utlize long range planning (maintenance, labor)


Business objectives

BUSINESS OBJECTIVES

  • PROFIT

  • short run cash flow, after tax profit, long run

  • RISK

  • diversify, hedge

  • MARKET DEVELOPMENT

  • new products, wider market, quality

  • CAPITAL REPLENISHMENT

  • LABOR RELATIONS


Multiobjective problems

Multiobjective Problems

  • Energy Policy health, environment, self-determination

  • Administration budgeting, setting objectives

  • Governmentservices, location, tax rates

  • Water Resources Management

  • NASA project selection

  • MIS system selection

  • POM vendor selection


Finnish energy policy

Finnish Energy Policy

  • Finland running out of energy in early 1980s

  • alternatives:large nuclear

  • large coal

  • conservation & small plants

  • 1984 2 companies applied for a nuclear plant

  • hot issue

  • Hamalainen built AHP DSS for interested users


Hierarchy

Hierarchy

  • alternatives of nuclear, coal, & conservation below each lower element

  • Used by members of Parliament

  • after Chernobyl, dropped nuclear


Selection techniques

Selection Techniques

many techniques exist to support selection decisions

  • multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)

  • simple multi-attribute rating technique (SMART)

  • analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

  • French methods (outranking)

  • Russian methods (ordinal)


Maut concepts

MAUT concepts

rigorously measure value vj

  • identify what is important (hierarchy)

  • identify RELATIVE importance (weights wk)

  • identify how well each alternative does on each criterion (score sjk)

  • can be linearvj =  wk sjk

  • or nonlinearvj = {(1+Kkjsjk) - 1}/K


Maut concepts1

MAUT concepts

  • basis: there is a single dimensional value measure

    • it is cardinal, can be used for ranking

  • analyst’s job - find that function

    • (measure accurately)

    • scores

    • weights


Caveats

caveats

  • people buy insurance (expected payoff < cost) because they avoid risk

  • people gamble (expected payoff << cost) because they are entertained

  • utility theory NORMATIVE (how we SHOULD act)

  • utility not necessarily additive

    [value of 8 eggs not always = 4x(value of 2 eggs)]

    money CAN serve as utility measure


Conclusions

conclusions

  • MAUT considered the “scientific” approach

  • focuses:

    • measure as accurately as possible

    • identify utility function as accurately as possible

    • be as objective as possible


Smart

SMART

  • MAUT is a little abstract

    • difficult to accurately develop tradeoffs

  • SMART based on the same theory

    • simpler implementation

    • linear form

    • direct entry of relative scores & weights


Smart technique

SMART technique

1. identify person whose utilities are to be maximized

2. identify the issue or issues

3. identify the alternatives to be evaluated

4. identify the relevant dimensions of value for evaluating alternatives (attribute scales)

5. rank the dimensions in order of importance

6. rate dimensions in importance, preserving ratios

7. sum the importance weights, & divide by total(wi)

8. measure how well each alternative does on each dimension(sij)

9. U =  wi sij


Points

points

  • in Step 4, limit criteria

    • there are only so many things a human can keep track of at one time

    • 8 plenty

    • if weight extremely low, drop


Methodology

methodology

  • Step 4: Jobs: Big 5 firm, dot.com, local bank

  • Step 5: rank order criteria

    • Experience (no value to cutting edge);

    • Pay ($25k to $50k);

    • Location (unattractive to great);

    • Workload (40 hours/week to 80 hours/week)

    • Travel (very heavy to a little travel)

  • Step 6: rate dimensions

    • least important = 10:travel = 10workload = 15location = 20pay = 30experience = 45


Methodology1

methodology

Step 7: Develop weights

Divide by totalcheck: 100 for bestaverage

Experience45/120 = 0.375 100/260 = 0.3850.38

Pay30/120 = 0.250 70/260 = 0.2690.26

Location20/120 = 0.167 40/260 = 0.1540.16

Workload15/120 = 0.125 30/260 = 0.1150.12

Travel10/120 = 0.083 20/260 = 0.0770.08


Methodology2

methodology

  • purpose of swing weighting

    • Consider difference in scales

    • The input is admittedly an approximation

    • Giving values based on a different perspective

      • additional check

      • should yield greater accuracy


Scores

scores

  • Step 8: score each alternative on each criterion

  • need as objective a scale as you can get

  • doesn’t have to be linear

    0 worst ideal 1.0

    Experience none (0) focused (0.3) general (0.9) cutting edge (1.0)

    Pay $25k (0) $30k (0.5) $35k (0.7) $40k (0.8) $50k (1.0)

    Location bad (0) Dallas (0.7) Austin (0.9) Bryan (1.0)

    Workload 80 hr (0) 70 hr (0.2) 50 hr (0.8) 40 hr (1.0)

    Travel excessive (0) lots (0.3) none (0.4) a little (1.0)


Scores1

Scores


Calculation of value

calculation of value

Step 9:

U =  wi sij

EXPPAYLOC WOR TRA

weights0.38 0.26 0.16 0.12 0.08

scores: TOTALS

Big 50.90.80.7 0.2 0.30.710

Dot.com1.00.70.9 0.8 1.00.826

Local bank0.30.50.1 0.1 0.40.304

recommends the Dot.com


Smart1

SMART

  • provides a very workable means to implement the principles of MAUT

  • in fact, it can be MORE accurate than MAUT

    (more realistic scores, tradeoffs)

    identify criteria

    develop scores over criteria

    identify alternatives available, measure scores

    simple calculation


Selecting nuclear depository

selecting nuclear depository

Keeney, An analysis of the portfolio of sites to characterize for selecting a nuclear repository, Risk Analysis7:2 [1987]

DOE - dump nuclear waste - selected Hanford, WA

NAS criticized selection method - said use MAUT

IDENTIFY OBJECTIVE HIERARCHY

objectivesattributesmeasures

DETERMINE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE

lottery tradeoffs

RANK by value =  weights x scores


Doe objectives

DOE objectives

  • at depositoryworker health effectsworker fatalities

    public health effectspublic fatalities

  • in transitworker health effectsworker fatalities

    public health effectspublic fatalities

  • environmentalaesthetic degradationbiological

    degradation of archaeological, historical & cultural properties

  • socioeconomic

  • costrepository costswaste transportation costs


Nuclear depository

Nuclear Depository

  • MAUT separated facts from values

  • explicit professional judgments identified

  • 14 criteria

  • each alternative’s value on each criterion measured with metric making sense relative to the decision (radiation - expected deaths rather than rads)

  • interviewed policy makers for tradeoffs


Nuclear depository1

Nuclear Depository

  • Keeney comments:

    • the four policy makers tended to share values

    • “public utility probably should be linear”

  • ended up digging at Yucca Mountain, Carlsbad

  • catch - can’t use either


Multiattribute utility theory

Hens Pastijn & Struys, “Multicriteria Analysis of the Burden Sharing in the European Community,” EJOR 59 1992 248-261

  • European Community

    • 1958 to 1974 financed by direct contributions by member states

    • Treaty of Rome fixed proportional contributions reflecting ability, advantage

    • disputes about distribution of funds since early 1970s

  • Study of equity of present system


European community revenues

European Community revenues

  • External tariff - 20.1% in 1989

  • agricultural import levies - 2.9%

  • sugar storage levies - 2.9%

  • VAT contributions - 56.8%

    • on goods and services

    • 1988 added element based on GNP

  • GDP-based contributions - 17.2%


European community financing 1989

European Community Financing - 1989

Percent of EC Funding Contributed

Germany26.4%Belgium4.1%

France20.5%Denmark2.2%

Italy15.4%Greece1.2%

Great Britain14.8%Portugal1.1%

Spain 7.4%Ireland0.8%

Netherlands 6.0%Luxemburg0.2%


European community financing

European Community Financing

  • Problems:

    • country of port of entry may not be destination (Rotterdam effect) but customs collected in the Netherlands

    • Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg & the Netherlands paid more than their relative share of GDP

    • BENEFIT PRINCIPLE - those who benefit should pay the tax


Reform proposals

Reform Proposals

  • 1976 Financial Mechanism: refund payable if contribution significantly higher than proportionate share of GNP

    • didn’t work as planned

  • 1984 corrective mechanism: rebate of 66% of difference between VAT payment & budget expenditure share


Criteria

criteria

  • GDP/population

  • POL - political willingness to cooperate

  • EX/GDP - exports per GDP

  • BEN/POP - EC payments/population

    • USED AHP TO GET WEIGHTS!


Weight sets

Weight Sets

Scen 1Scen 2Scen 3Scen 4Scen 5

GDP/POP.25.4.53.531.0

POL.25.4.27.13-

EX/GDP.25.05.07.07-

BEN/POP.25.15.13.27-


Proportional contributions

Proportional Contributions

1989Scen 1Scen 2Scen 3Scen 4Scen 5

Germany26.3626.1126.1026.3926.3326.22

France20.4921.5921.7921.6021.4521.09

Italy15.4317.2317.5017.2217.0717.30

Great Britain14.7714.5114.5114.8715.1615.74

Spain 7.36 6.25 6.37 6.28 6.27 6.27

Netherlands 5.97 5.60 5.37 5.29 5.26 5.09

Belgium 4.12 3.48 3.31 3.25 3.24 3.23

Denmark 2.19 2.48 2.40 2.45 2.51 2.43

Greece 1.23 1.09 1.06 1.06 1.09 1.06


Conclusions1

conclusions

  • Great Britain should pay more if weight higher for progressivity

  • Italy should pay less than GDP, but more than they currently do

  • France & Denmark should pay more

  • smaller countries should pay less


Disposition of weapons grade plutonium

Disposition of Weapons Grade Plutonium

end of cold war

desire for disarmament

want to get rid of plutonium


Clinton directive

Clinton Directive

September 1993

  • Where possible, eliminate stockpiles of HEU & Pu, ensure they are subject to highest standards of safety, security, international accountability

  • Try to purchase HEU from former USSR & other countries and convert to reactor fuel

  • Start comprehensive review of long-term options for Pu disposition, considering technical, nonproliferation, environmental, budgetary, & economic factors; invite international participation


Problem scope

Problem Scope

  • about 50,000 tons of Pu is surplus in US

  • about twice that amount surplus in former USSR

  • form ispits (warheads)

    at plants ready to make warheads

    at breeder reactors (Pu production facilities)

    contaminated waste (gloves, etc.)


Plutonium characteristics

Plutonium Characteristics

  • artificial

  • EXTREMELY toxic

  • very long half-life (centuries)

  • NOT a particularly efficient reactor fuel, but can be used

    • if used in reactors, there still would be about 92% of Pu left over (but it would not be suitable for weapons)

    • lots of other spent fuel Pu, but has natural barrier

      (you die if you pick it up)


Disposition process

Disposition Process

  • transport warhead Pu to oxidation site

  • oxidize Pu to PuOx

  • Process

    • vitrify: apply radionuclide, encase in matrix

    • borehole: vitrify (or none)

    • reactor: burn

  • permanent storage


Decision process

Decision Process

  • Notice of Intent for Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement 21 Jun 1994

  • Department of Energy

    • Office of Fissile Materials Disposition

  • want Documented Record of Decision

    • phase 1: SCREENING 17 Mar 9541 options down to 11

    • phase 2: multiattribute analysisdown to 1 - 3

    • phase 3: final decision


Screening criteria

Screening Criteria

  • dispositionlong term storage

    • resistance to theft & diversion by unauthorized parties*

    • resistance to retrieval, extraction, & reuse by host nation

    • technical viability*

    • environmental, safety, & health*

    • cost effectiveness*

    • timeliness*

    • foster progress & cooperation with Russia and others*

    • public & institutional acceptance*

    • additional benefits


Disposition options

Disposition Options

  • storage options

    • no disposal actionbaseline

    • radiation barrier alloyX:open-ended, ES&H

  • immobilization with radionuclides

    • underground nuclear detonationX: ES&H, licensing/regulatory

    • borosilicate glass immobilization (DWPF)X: ES&H, cost

    • borosilicate glass immobilization (new)reasonable

    • ceramic immobilizationreasonable

    • electrometallurgical treatmentreasonable

    • borosilicate glass oxidation/dissolutionreasonable


Disposition options1

Disposition Options

  • direct disposal options

    • direct emplacement in HLW repositoryX: retrievable, time

    • deep borehole (immobilized)reasonable

    • deep borehole (direct emplacement)reasonable

    • discard to WIPPX: capacity

    • hydraulic fracturingX: technical viability

    • deep well injectionX: ES&H

    • injection into continental magmaX: technical viability, ES&H

    • melting in crystalline rockX: technical viability, ES&H

    • disposal under ice capsX: technical viability, ES&H

    • seabed (placement on ocean floor)X: technical viability

    • ocean dilutionX: ES&H, treaty

    • deep space launchX: retrievability, ES&H


Disposition options2

Disposition Options

  • Reactor & Accelerator Options

    • Euratom MOX fabrication/reactor burningreasonable

    • existing light water reactors (LWRs)reasonable

    • partially completed LWRSreasonable

    • evolutionary or advanced LWRSreasonable

    • naval propulsion reactorsX: transparency

    • modular helium reactors (MHRS)X: technical maturity

    • CANDU heavy water reactorsreasonable

    • ALMRS with pyroprocessingX: technical maturity, ES&H

    • accelerator conversionX: technical maturity

    • LWRS with reprocessingX:theft diversion, policy

    • ALMRS with recycleX: technical maturity, policy

    • particle bed, molten salt reactorsX: technical maturity


Phase 2 maut analysis

Phase 2: MAUT Analysis

  • Decision maker - Secretary of Energy

  • Project manager - Office of Fissile Materials Disposition

  • Technical Analysis - National Laboratories

    • Livermore, Oak Ridge, Sandia

  • MAUT Framework - Pantex

    • UT, Texas A&M


Phase 2 purpose

Phase 2 Purpose

  • to generate a multiattribute utility model

    option score=sum(weights*obj scores)

  • National Laboratories - give accurate estimates of each option’s score on each objective

  • OFMD - source of relative weights


Phase 2 objectives

Phase 2 Objectives

evolutionary - this was the initial set

  • non-proliferationmax resistance to theft from unauthorized parties

    max resistance to diversion by host nation

    max international cooperation & compliance

  • operational effectivemax technical viability

    max cost effectiveness

    max timeliness

    max additional benefits

  • env, saf, & healthprotect human health & safety

    protect the natural environment

    protect the human environment

  • public & institutional acceptance


Phase 2 objectives1

Phase 2 Objectives

NonProliferationTheftmaterial characteristics

environment

safeguards & security

Diversionmaterial characteristics

environment

safeguards & security

Irreversibilityform

location

International CooperationRussian

civil use of plutonium

Timelinessstart year

time to complete


Phase 2 objectives2

Phase 2 Objectives

Operational EffectivenessTechnical Maturity

Cost

Investment Cost

Life Cycle Cost

Environment, Safety, & Health

Human Health & Safety

Natural Environment

Socio-Economic

(last 3 measures had many sub-measures)


Bankadvisor

BANKADVISOR

  • Mareschal & Brans, EJOR [1991]

  • use PROMETHEE as a bank DSS

  • evaluate firms relative to their competitors

  • input balance sheets, income statements (4 yr)

  • identify ratios

    • management

      • commercial

      • industrial

      • financial


Bankadvisor1

BANKADVISOR

  • PHASE I: display firm financial data

    firm specific

  • PHASE II: industrial evaluation

    comparative

  • each firm an alternative

  • criteria types:solvency rations

    liquidity ratios

    profitability ratios

    management ratios


Croatian highways

Croatian Highways

  • Mladineo, Lozic, Stosic, Mlinaric & Radica, EJOR [1992]

  • pick highway route

  • 4 alternatives (2 coastal, 2 inland)

  • interdisciplinarylocal interests

    social interests


Croatian highways1

Croatian Highways

  • 27 criteria

  • TRAFFIC

  • ENGINEERING/TECHNICAL

  • CIVIL ENGINEERING

  • DEMOGRAPHIC

  • ENVIRONMENTAL

  • SOCIO-ECONOMIC


Jordanian water

Jordanian Water

  • Abu-Taleb & Mareschal EJOR [1995]

  • 18 CRITERIA:

    over time, government had developed 18

    these prioritized by PROMETHEE II study

  • groundwater quality, quantity, extractions

    conservation, cost, supply, efficiency

  • sanitation, output value, surface quality& quantity

  • irrigated area, energy, land quality, sedimentation, recreation, air quality, foreign labor


Jordanian water1

Jordanian Water

  • Constraints

    • capital budget

    • operating budget

    • geographical dispersion

    • incompatability (bar overlapping combinations)

  • PROMETHEE V gives optimal portfolio with net flows as objective function coefficients


Conclusions2

Conclusions

  • Multiple attributes can be important in many categories of decision making

  • A number of techniques exist

  • Systematic

    • As objective as possible

    • Preference of decision maker inherently subjective


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