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LSE March 2014 Jeremy Skinner. Births +52 Death -16 Net +36. (1.8 % of total pop). (0.7% of total pop). (1.2% of total pop). Births +73 Death -33 Net +40. Data in ‘000 (2006-2010) Assumes current population of 8.4 million

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Lse march 2014 jeremy skinner

LSEMarch 2014Jeremy Skinner


Births +52

Death -16

Net +36

(1.8% of total pop)

(0.7% of total pop)

(1.2% of total pop)

Births +73

Death -33

Net +40

Data in ‘000 (2006-2010)

Assumes current population of 8.4 million

Net figures for Inner and Outer London are calculated as averages for 2006-2010


Population scorecard annual avg thousands 2006 2010
Population ‘scorecard’ (annual avg – thousands - 2006-2010)


London s population is projected to continue growing and will soon exceed its previous peak
London’s population is projected to continue growingand will soon exceed its previous peak

‘000

Central projection of 11.3 million inhabitants by 2050

These projections are based on annual employment growth assumptions of 3% (high), 2.5% (central), 2% (low)

Overall an increase of 37% from 2011 to 2050

Consistent with London Plan

High

13.4 million

Within a year we expect to surpass London's 1939 population peak of 8.6 million

Central

11.3 million

Low

9.5 million

Source: GLA Intelligence Unit


We are assessing various scenarios - and their impact on infrastructure needs (and costs) – that would accommodate London’s growth.

Accommodating growth outside London

London’s projected growth will impact beyond London’s boundary, both in terms of economic growth and where people will live and travel between.

Coordinated National, Regional and London planning required to plan for growth.

The LEPs will play an instrumental role in supporting that coordination

Accommodating growth within London’s borders

New runway?

New hub airport?

Expanding London’s boundaries?

New runway?


Continued growth will create strong demand for renewal of and additions to London’s infrastructure. Some headlines…

  • Public transport: 50-60% increase in trips with a continuing shift away from the car, increasingly dense development. Major transport schemes will include Crossrail 2 and 3, road tunnelling, tube and overground extensions, e.t.c.

  • 1.5 million new homes needed between 2020 and 2050 (assuming 50,000 per annum) – step change in delivery needed

  • 6,400 primary classes (assuming 30 children per class); equivalent to 300 additional primary schools

  • 3,900 secondary classes, or 130 new schools each year.

  • High risk of demand outstripping supply across various infrastructure types – energy in particular – in the short term


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