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Center Vision

Center f or Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) First Annual Conference November 18, 2004 Randolph W. Hall, University of Southern California. Center Vision.

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Center Vision

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  1. Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)First Annual ConferenceNovember 18, 2004Randolph W. Hall, University of Southern California

  2. Center Vision Improve the nation’s homeland security through development and application of tools for assessing the risks and consequences of terrorism.

  3. Security and Society

  4. Center Competition • 72 submitted white papers • 12 selected for full proposals • 4 selected for site visits (USC, Harvard, Nebraska, Pennsylvania) • $4 million/year funding from DHS • 1st University Center of Excellence • CREATE universities are partnered with 2nd and 3rd centers of excellence

  5. Center Activities • Comprehensive research program, covering risks, consequences, response & economics • Integrated tools within a GIS environment • Outreach to users and research community, through events, professional associations & exchange • Educational programs: professional masters, short-courses, PhD fellowships, assistantships

  6. Interdisciplinary Engineering Information Technology Social Sciences

  7. Service to the Nation

  8. Framework and Products

  9. Terrorist Enterprise Criminality Coercion Political Aims

  10. Terrorist Attacks on US Interests • 83, Beirut, Embassy+Barracks: 257 lives • 88, PanAm 103, Lockerbie: 270 lives • 93, WT Center, NY: 6 lives • 96, Saudi Arabia housing towers • 98, US embassies, Kenya, Tanzania • 99, OK City Federal Building: 168 lives • OO, US Cole, Yemen: 17 lives • 01, WTC, Pentagon: 3000+ lives • Approximately 4000 lives over 20 years

  11. Comparisons • 4000 fatalities = • 2 days of heart disease • 2 weeks of accidents • 5 weeks of automobile accidents • 10 weeks of homicides

  12. Why Worry? • Economic loss: how people respond to the risk of terrorism • Impossible to predict what will happen in the future based on the past • Nuclear threat during cold war

  13. Modeling Steps Risk Assessment Consequence Assessment Emergency Response Models Economic Assessment

  14. Integration: Models and Applications Port Manpad Electricity Application Areas: Modeling Areas: Risk Analysis Consequence Assessment Response Modeling Economic Analysis

  15. Education and Outreach

  16. Advisory Committees • Scientific Advisory Committee – Ph.D. trained scientists and homeland security experts • User Advisory Committee – public sector/non-profit users of center products • Industry Committee – research partners and collaborators from private industry

  17. Education • Masters/Certificate: System Safety and Security – Available via Distance Education • Decision Analysis • Risk Assessment • Management of Government Programs • Economics/Policy • Engineering Economics • Specialization (many choices) – M.S. • Elective – M.S.

  18. Short Courses • Aviation Safety and Security Program has 50 years of experience training aviation safety professionals and accident investigators • New programs in non-aviation threats + aviation security • Taught through LAX facility

  19. Events • Economics Workshop (August, 2004) • Conference on Reducing the Risks and Consequences of Terrorism (November 18, 2004) • Vulnerability Assessment Workshop (January, 2005) • 2nd Economics Workshop (2005) • Emergency Response Workshop (2005) • Port Security Workshop

  20. Website: www.usc.edu/create

  21. Some Statistics • 15 active research projects • Nearly 50 students involved in center • More than 50 professionals on advisory committees • 50 presentations on our research • More than 20 company visits • 3 completed research reports • New degree and certificate programs • New aviation security courses • Extensive national media coverage

  22. Conclusions

  23. Today’s Conference • What risks do we face from terrorism? • What are the potential future consequences? • What tools are available for evaluating threats? • How should we best invest and prepare?

  24. Center Messages • Evaluate and prioritize investments in counter-terrorism • Each threat and counter-measure must be placed in a broad context, relative to opponent goals and objectives • Investments must also be placed in the context of all risks faced by humans • Counter-terrorism must be as robust as the terrorists themselves

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