Development of oil and gas emissions for the three state air quality study 3saqs
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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zac Adelman University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO May 28, 2013. Purpose.

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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris

ENVIRON International Corporation

Zac Adelman

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO

May 28, 2013


Purpose

  • To develop oil and gas emissions for the 2011 year and the WRAP Phase III Basins plus other areas in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming to support Photochemical Grid Model (PGM) modeling

  • To develop future year oil and gas emissions out to 2030 for PGM modeling

  • To improve oil and gas emissions for uncertain source categories

    • For example, fracing, completions and shale oil and gas

  • To improve oil and gas emissions for areas in CO, UT and WY outside of the WRAP Phase III Basins

    • For example, Paradox, Raton and Big Horn Basins


3SAQS Oil and Gas Emissions Approach

  • Near-Term – Develop 2011 and Future Year Oil and Gas (O&G) Emissions by Fall 2013

    • Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G Emissions Based on Readily Available Data (Sep 2013)

    • Phase 1B: Estimate Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions Based on Readily Available Data (Nov 2013)

  • Longer-Term – Improve 2011 and Future Year O&G Emissions (Oct 2013 - Apr 2014)

    • Phase 2A: Surveys and Other O&G Inventory Refinements

    • Phase 2B: Refine 2011 O&G Emission Estimates

    • Phase 3: Refined Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions and White Paper on Consideration for Improved FY Projections


Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions

  • Develop 2011 O&G emissions following Phase III methodology for:

    • D-J, Piceance, NSJ, Uinta, SWWY, PRB, Wind River Basins

  • Start with CO/UT/WY 2011 state data (“permitted”)

    • CO APENs data (includes Raton Basin except NM)

    • UT data unknown (includes Paradox Basin)

    • WY data reported complete (includes Big Horn Basin)

    • EPA data for Tribes (minor source reporting?)

  • Survey Based Sources starting with 2008 WestJump:

    • Develop 2008 to 2011 O&G activity scaling factors from IHS database: spuds, well count, gas, condensate and oil production

    • Controls analysis similar to WestJumpAQMS (“light”)


Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (continued)

  • Colorado Phase III Basins (D-J, Piceance and NSJ)

    • Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WestJump based on O&G growth with “light” controls analysis

    • Obtain 2011 APEN sources from CDPHE

      • Includes Raton Basin

  • Wyoming Phase III Basins (SWWY, Wind River and PRB)

    • Obtain 2011 O&G emissions from WDEQ that includes all sources

      • Includes Big Horn Basin


Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (concluded)

  • Utah Phase III Basins (Uinta)

    • Obtain 2010 data from UT BLM Air Resource Management Strategy (ARMS) and evaluate data/surveys

    • Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WJ

    • Obtain major and minor permitted source data from UDEQ and EPA (Tribal Data) (includes Paradox)

  • Develop SMOKE-ready O&G emission inputs

    • IDA files

    • Spatial surrogates

    • Speciation (existing Phase III based on 2006 surveys)


Phase 1B: Estimate FY 2012-2030 O&G EI

  • Basin-level projections five surrogate parameters

    • Spuds, wells, oil, condensate and gas production

  • Develop three simple projection scenarios for each activity surrogate and Basin

    • Low Development: Continued decline to some “floor” level

    • High Development: Either continued growth or pick-up of growth following previous historic growth rate

    • Median Development: Either flat-lining or delayed growth after some number of years

  • Project cooperators will decide on which of the three scenarios to apply for each Basin for each parameter

  • Forecasts will be made for just one scenario


Phase 1B: FY 2012-2030 O&G EI (concluded)

  • “Light” controls analysis like WestJump to account for changes in O&G emissions due to regulations

    • For example, State-specific regulations; EPA Subpart OOOO; EPA NSPS for spark-ignited engines; EPA off-road diesel Tier standards

  • SMOKE-ready inputs for one FY from 2012-2030


Phase 1A and 1B Scope of Work

Task 1 – IHS Database Analysis: Extract historical O&G production data from HIS database for all Basins

Task 2 – Permit Data Analysis: Obtain and analyze permit data on O&G emissions from CO, WY and UT

Task 3– Controls Analysis: Analyze 2011 controls on O&G sources

Task 4 – Develop 2011 Emissions: Generate 2011 O&G emissions

Task 5 – Emissions Processing: Generate SMOKE-ready 2011 O&G emissions

Task 6– FY Projections: Develop FY growth for O&G activity

Task 7– FY Controls Analysis: Develop control factors 2012-2030

Task 8:– FY Emissions Development: Develop 2012-2030 O&G emissions for one growth scenario

Task 9 – FY Emissions Processing: Develop SMOKE-ready emissions for one FY from 2012-2030


Phase 2A: Surveys and Inventory Refinements

  • Survey Methodology:

    • Surveys targeted for information for specific uncertain targeted source categories

    • Target a few large operators that dominate a Basin

    • Surveys may be equipment type and/or well type rather than Basin-specific

    • Survey to be populated with defaults prior to distribution

    • Operator outreach would be performed


Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (continued)

  • Survey Targeted Source Categories:

    • Source categories not included in WRAP Phase III

      • For example, fracing/completion engines, produced water, compressor seals, etc.

    • Gas composition analysis

      • by well type, venting and flashing

    • Source categories with high degree of uncertainty

      • For example, well blowdowns, well workover rigs, initial well completions, etc.


Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (concluded)

  • O&G Inventory Refinements:

    • Develop VOC speciation profiles for glycol dehydrators from state permit data (GLYCalc runs)

      • Obtain GLYCalc speciated output from state

    • Check availability of inventory data for pipelines currently missing in inventory

    • Optional Task: Develop survey-based Raton and Paradox Basin O&G emissions

      • Option 1: Survey for unpermitted sources

      • Option 2: No survey, analysis of existing data

      • Option 3: Use EPA default tool


Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G Emissions

  • Incorporate information from Phase 2A into Phase 1A 2011 O&G emissions

  • Update Williston and Great Plains Basins with O&G emissions from BLM Montana/Dakotas study

  • Update O&G in Basins in Three-State area not included in WRAP Phase III study or Phase 1A 2011 O&G inventory

    • Raton and Paradox Basins


Phase 3: Refined FY 2012-2030 O&G Projections

  • Develop White Paper on approaches for making refined FY projections to be worked out with Cooperators before implementing any refinements in the projections

    • Refine Phase 3 Technical Approach

  • Future year projections using refined 2011 O&G emission estimates developed in Phase 2B

  • Incorporate information from surveys including updates to Phase 1B control factors

    • Update targeted source categories and regions


  • Phase 3: Refined FY Projections (concluded)

    • Refined O&G activity surrogate projections

      • By Basin by category unit-level

      • Incorporate data from BLM on resource availability

        • Review available BLM RFDs/AQTSDs on FY O&G

      • Review trends forecasts for five surrogates (IHS)

      • Review other available information on limits of production/wells/drilling

        • For example, reservoir capacity, regulations, etc.

        • Industry funded studies, states, USGS, etc.

      • For well count projections, same split as current well type

      • Develop growth rates for potential new plays

        • For example Niobrara (D-J) and Mancos (SSJ) Shale Oil


    Schedule for Task 2013-5 2011 & FY O&G EI

    Assumes a July 1, 2013 start date

    Phase 1A: 2011 O&G EI – Sep 2013

    Phase 1B: 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Nov 2013

    Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements – Dec 2013

    Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G EI – Mar 2014

    Phase 3: Refined 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Apr 2014


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