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Winter Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update. A. Allan, Rev 2, 12/02/10. IRC 2010 Update Messages:. 450mm timing presently unchanged from 2009 ITRS position However, FI will extend 300mm wafer generation in parallel line item header with 450mm; and

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irc 2010 update messages
IRC 2010 Update Messages:
  • 450mm timing presently unchanged from 2009 ITRS position
    • However, FI will extend 300mm wafer generation in parallel line item header with 450mm; and
    • Emphasize compatibility of productivity extensions into the 450mm generation;
    • FI update also indicates that its activities are relevant to legacy wafer generations (e.g. MtM technologies)
  • More than Moore white paper final ITWG draft is completed and available online
    • New “Moore’s Law and More” Graphic update proposal for the 2011 ITRS Executive Summary Renewal
  • The 2010 ITWG work is based on frozen 2009 Headers
    • Technology Pacing focus issues identified and addressed (see Technology Pacing agenda Foil)
  • Beyond CMOS –
    • Research tools and material (pre-alpha material and tool) timing needs to be taken into account
    • PIDS and ERD and ERM are coordinating new technology transfers (e.g. InGaAs; Ge) for 2011 ITRS work Kickoff proposals
  • ESH shifting focus to future material use and risk mitigation (living “white paper” proposed) on ITRS forum site
  • IRC 2010 Summary special topics
    • Energy topic Updated
    • ERD/ERM Next Memory Storage Spring Meeting completed 3rd conference in Japan at Winter meeting
    • Technology Pacing CTSG proposals are integrated into PIDS Tables and ORTC Table1 at Dec’10 Japan Workshop for the 2011 ITRS Executive Summary Renewal
    • Equivalent scaling graphic update for the 2011 ITRS Executive Summary Renewal
      • Parallel bulk and SOI pathways
      • Clarification of gate mobility materials pathway
      • Comparison alignment with ITRS dimensional vs. industry typical “node” trends
irc ctsg winter 2010 technology pacing cross twg study group ctsg agenda
IRC/CTSG Winter 2010Technology Pacing Cross-TWG Study Group (CTSG) Agenda:

IRC/Technology Pacing CTSG TOPICS - CTSG 2010 Proposals considered

During Winter Meeting 2011 Renewal work from 2H10 CTSG Discussions:

  • PIDS and FEP Memory Survey Proposal Updates - to be used for 2011 Renewal
  • FEP and Design and System Drivers – will investigate MPU and Leading Edge Logic technology trend proposals for 2011 Renewal

Plus Continued 1Q11 CTSG 2011 Renewal work on:

  • Litho – develop proposals utilizing # of Mask layers inputs [see ICKnowledge (ICK) contribution in backup]
  • Design/Interconnect - Andrew/Juan-Antonio/Chris Case - reconciled the Interconnect and Design Tables alignment issues
  • A&P/Design - Bill Bottoms/Andrew/Juan-Antonio – work on proposals for reconciling the Power Dissipation (absolute "hot spot" basis rather than total chip area for 2011 Renewal
  • PIDS/Design – work on 2011 Renewal proposals for
    • New Max Chip Frequency trends (lower model basis plus long term trend)
    • Changes to the 13% PIDS Overhead trend vs. new Design Max Chip Frequency trends;
    • Updates regarding ring-oscillator basis;
    • Timing changes to “equivalent scaling” tradeoffs with dimensional scaling
  • ORTC model update proposals added from work in 2H10 CTSG work for 2011 Renewal
slide4

More than Moore: Diversification

Analog/RF

Passives

HV

Power

Sensors

Actuators

Biochips

Interacting with people and environment

Non-digital content

System-in-package

(SiP)

130nm

90nm

Baseline CMOS: CPU, Memory, Logic

65nm

Information

Processing

Digital content

System-on-chip

(SoC)

Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value Systems

More Moore: Miniaturization

45nm

32nm

22nm

16 nm

.

.

.

V

Beyond CMOS

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 4

Figure 4 The Concept of Moore’s Law and More

slide5

2009 Definition of the Half Pitch – New Poly Definition

[No single-product “node” designation; DRAM half-pitch still litho driver; however, other product technology trends may be drivers on individual TWG tables]

DRAM ½ Pitch

= DRAM Metal Pitch/2

FLASH Poly Silicon ½ Pitch

= Flash Poly Pitch/2

  • Poly
  • Pitch

MPU/ASIC M1 ½ Pitch

= MPU/ASIC M1 Pitch/2

  • Metal
  • Pitch

8-16 Lines 32-64 Lines

Typical flash

Un-contacted Poly

Typical DRAM/MPU/ASIC

Metal Bit Line

Source: 2009 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 1

2010- Update Flash Poly Definition

slide6

Metal

High k

2nd generation

nth generation

D

S

High-µ

InGaAs; Ge; ?

Si + Stress

2009 ITRS hi-perf GLpr : 54nm 47nm 47nm 41nm 35nm 31nm 28nm 20nm 14nm

2009 ITRS hi-perf GLph : 32nm 29nm 29nm 27nm 24nm 22nm 20nm 15nm 12nm

PDSOI

FDSOI

2009 ITWG Table Timing: 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2021

54nm

45nm

32nm

22nm

16nm

11nm

2009 IS ITRS Flash Poly :

68nm

45nm

32nm

22nm

16nm

2009 IS ITRS DRAM M1 :

MPU/hpASIC “Node”: “45nm” “32nm” “22nm” “16nm” “11nm” “8nm”

= Additional timing movement

considerations for 2011 ITRS work

2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC M1 : 76nm 65nm 54nm 45nm 38nm 32nm 27nm 19nm 13nm

Updated Proposal - for 2011 work [from 11/11 CTSG; 11/15 IRC telecon]

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 3 “Equivalent Scaling” Roadmap

Figure 3 ORTC Table 1 Graphical Trends (including overlay of 2009 industry logic “nodes”

and ITRS trends for comparison)

Metal

Metal

Gate-stack material

High k

High k

Channel

material

D

S

Possible Pull -in

Multi-gate

(on bulk or SOI)

Structure (electrostatic control)

Bulk

Possible

Delay

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

6

See also PIDS, FEP, ERD, and ERM chapters’ text and tables for additional detail)

2010 update itrs ortc technology trend pre summary
2010 Update ITRS ORTC Technology Trend Pre-Summary
  • ORTC Model Proposals to TWGs for TWG Interdependency Preparation for other ORTC section features:
      • “Equivalent Scaling” timing unchanged in 2010 for ERD/ERM early research and transfer to PIDS; however need for continued discussion about transfer of alternative Gate Material technology in 2011 Renewal
      • Logic “Equivalent Scaling” Roadmap Timing Update underway, and ongoing discussion of alignment of “node” and dimensional Trends for 2011 Renewal
      • New “More than Moore” (MtM) white paper completed for 2011 ITRS Renewal impact and added to the ITRS website at www.itrs.net
  • MPU contacted M1
    • Unchanged for 2010 [validated by FEP data]
    • 2-year cycle trend through 2013
    • Cross-over DRAM M1 2010/45nm
    • Smaller 60f2 SRAM 6t cell Design Factor
    • Smaller 175f2 Logic Gate 4t Design Factor
    • Two proposals[2011 Renewal work]: for Design TWG to evaluate possible 1-year M1 delay (IC TWG: two companies not meeting roadmap); and also evaluate alignment of “nodes” with latest M1 industry status and also High Performance/Low Power timing needs (Taiwan IRC request)
  • DRAM contacted M1
    • Unchanged for 2010: Dimensional M1 half-pitch trends remain unchanged from 2007/08/09 ITRS; new 4f2 Design factor begins 2011
    • Proposal [2011 Renewal work]: 1-year pull-in of M1 and bits/chip trends to end of roadmap*; 4f2 push out [to 2013]; *no Flattening of DRAM M1 as with Flash Poly**
  • Flash Un-contacted Poly
    • Unchanged for 2010: 2yr cycle trend through 2010/32nm; then 3yr cycle and also added “equivalent scaling” bit design:
      • Inserted 3bits/cell MLC 2009-11; and delayed 4bits/cell (2 companies in production) until 2012
    • Proposal #1[2011 Renewal work]: 1.5-2-year pull-in of Poly; however slower ~4-year cycle trend to 2015/18nm; then 3-year trend to 2022; ** then Flat Poly after 2022/8nm; and 3bits/cell extended to 2018; 4bits/cell delay to 2019
    • Additional Proposal consideration underway for 2011 Renewal due to recent announcements
2010 update itrs ortc technology trend pre summary cont
2010 Update ITRS ORTC Technology Trend Pre-Summary (cont.)

5)Unchanged for 2010 Tables: MPU GLpr – ’08-’09 2-yr flat; Low operating and standby line items track changes

  • Unchanged for 2010 Tables: MPU GLph – ’08-’09 2-yr flat with equiv. scaling process tradeoffs; Low operating and standby line items track changes
    • Performance targets (speed, power) on track with tradeoffs

7)Primarily Unchanged [corrections to Intro Level product line items – see backup] for 2010 Tables: MPU Functions/Chip and Chip Size Models

    • Utilized Design TWG Model for Chip Size and Density Model trends – tied to technology cycle timing trends and updated cell design factors
    • ORTC line item OverHead (OH) area model, includes non-active area
    • ORTC model impact updating from PIDS/FEP Survey proposals evaluation underway for 2011 Renewal]
  • DRAM Bits/Chip and Chip Size Model Unchanged for 2010 Tables - 3-year generation “Moore’s Law” doubling cycle;
    • smaller Chip Sizes (<60mm2) with 4f2 design factor included
    • ORTC model impact updating from PIDS/FEP Survey proposals evaluation underway for 2011 Renewal]
  • Flash Bits/Chip and Chip Size Model Unchanged for 2010 Tables
    • 2-year generation “Moore’s Law” doubling cycle;
    • growing Chip Sizes after return to 3-year technology cycle
    • ORTC model impact updating from PIDS/FEP Survey proposals evaluation underway for 2011 Renewal]
  • IRC 450mm Position: Pilot lines/2012; Production/2014-16 Unchanged for 2010; also Unchanged: “double S-curve” graphic in 2010 Update Summary
    • 450mm Program status and Long-Range IEM v12 Demand Update Scenario was presented by ISMI to IRC for 2011 ITRS Renewal preparation
    • ISMI is pursuing 450mm program activities to meet the ITRS Timing
    • Evaluation of possible impact of a delayed scenario is underway for 2011 ITRS Renewal preparation
slide9

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 1

Figure 1 ORTC Table 1 with PIDS update proposals for 2011 ITRS effort)

[including PIDS 2011 Roadmap Flash and DRAM Trend Driver Proposals]

Note: additional proposals for 2011 ITRS work are under consideration due to recent additional industry technology implementation acceleration announcements. Updates will be delivered at public meetings in 2011.

slide10

16nm

Near-Term

Long-Term

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 2

Figure 2 ORTC Table 1 Graphical Trends (including overlay of PIDS update proposals for 2011 ITRS effort)

2013: PIDS DRAM 4f2 Design Factor bits/cell push-out

PIDS DRAM Projection

~1-yr pull-in

42nm M1 to 2010 (2 co’s);

Then 3-yr cycle to 2024/8nm;

2019: PIDS Flash 4 bits/cell push-out

PIDS Flash Projection

~2-yr pull-in

26nm Poly half-pitch to 2010 (2 co’s);

Then ~4-yr cycle to 2020/10nm;

Then 3-year cycle to 2022/8nm;Then flat

Memory

PIDS 2011

Proposals

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 7a

slide11

16nm

Near-Term

Long-Term

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 5a

Figure 5a DRAM and Flash Memory Half Pitch Trends

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 7a

slide12

16nm

Near-Term

Long-Term

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 5b

Figure 5b MPU/high-performance ASIC Half Pitch and Gate Length Trends

slide13

MPU/ASIC

Alignment

With Latest

Design TWG

Actual SRAM [60f2]

& Logic Gate [175f2]

DRAM

4f2

Added

Beginning

2011

Flash [4f2]

1) 2-yr Cycle

Extended to 2010;

2) 3 bits/cell added

2009-2011;

3) 4 bits/cell moved

To 2012

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 6

Figure 6 2009 ITRS Product Function Size Trends:MPU Logic Gate Size (4-transistor); Memory Cell Size [SRAM (6-transistor); Flash (SLC and MLC),

and DRAM (transistor + capacitor)]

2009 ITRS: 2009-2024

Function Size

Square Micrometers (um2)

slide14

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 7a

Figure 7a 2009 ITRS Product Technology Trends: Memory Product Functions/Chip and Industry Average “Moore’s Law” and Chip Size Trends

slide15

2011: “22nm”/(38nm M1)

MPU Model Generations

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 7b

Figure 7b 2009 ITRS Product Technology Trends: MPU Product Functions/Chip and Industry Average “Moore’s Law” and Chip Size Trends

slide16

Production

Development

Manufacturing

Consortium Pilot Line

22nm (extendable to 16nm) M1 half-pitch capable tools

Alpha

Tool

Beta

Tool

Tools for

Pilot line

Volume

32nm (extendable to 22nm) M1 half-pitch capable Beta tools by end of 2011

Beta

Tool

Production

Tool

450mm 32nm M1 half-pitch

Pilot Line Ramp

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Years

2010 ITRS Summary Figure 8

Figure 8 A Typical Wafer Generation Pilot Line and Production “Ramp” Curve applied to Forecast Timing

Targets of the 450 mm Wafer Generation

2010 winter meeting public conference backup
2010 Winter Meeting Public Conference Backup
  • ITRS “S-curves” Ramp Timing definition
  • ERD/ERM “Beyond CMOS” Definition Graphic
  • ORTC Table 2D corrections
  • SICAS Capacity Analysis Graphics 60nm Split-out Analysis Update
  • Typical Industry “Node” Tracking vs ITRS Technology Trends

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

slide18

Production Ramp-up Model and Technology/Cycle Timing

200K

Development

Production

Volume (Wafers/Month)

20K

2K

Alpha

Tool

Beta

Tool

Production

Tool

200

First Two Companies

Reaching Production

20

First

Conf.

Papers

2

Additional

Lead-time:

ERD/ERM

Research and

PIDS Transfer

0

12

24

-24

-12

Months

2009 WAS 2010 Unchanged

Production Ramp-up Model and Technology Cycle Timing

*Examples: 25Kwspm ~=

4.5Mu/mo @ 280mm2

10Mu/mo @ 140mm2

15Mu/mo @ 100mm2

22mu/mo @ 70mm2

Source: 2009 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 2a

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

slide19

ERD/ERM Long-Range R&D and PIDS Transfer Timing Model Technology Cycle Timing

[Example: MOSFET High-mobility Channel Replacement Materials]

200K

Production

Research

Development

20K

2K

Transfer to PIDS/FEP

(96-72mo

Leadtime)

Alpha

Tool

Beta

Tool

Product

Tool

Volume (Wafers/Month)

200

1st 2 Co’s

Reach

Product

20

First

Tech. Conf.

Device Papers

Up to ~12yrs

Prior to Product

First

Tech. Conf.

Circuits Papers

Up to ~ 5yrs

Prior to Product

2

0

24

-96

-72

-24

-48

Months

Hi-m

Example:

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 2b

2009 WAS 2010 Unchanged

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

2008 itrs beyond cmos definition graphic

Ferromagnetic

Logic Devices

Spin Logic

Devices

Baseline

CMOS

Ultimately

Scaled CMOS

Functionally

Enhanced CMOS

Nanowire

Electronics

32nm

22nm

16nm

11nm

8nm

New State Variable

Multiplegate MOSFETs

New Devices

Channel Replacement Materials

New Data Representation

Low Dimensional Materials Channels

New Data Processing

Algorithms

“More Moore”

“Beyond CMOS”

Computing and Data Storage Beyond CMOS

Source: Emerging Research Device Working Group

[2009 – Unchanged]

2008 ITRS “Beyond CMOS” Definition Graphic

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

slide21

ORTC Table 2D - Including Corrections

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

slide22

ORTC Table 2C - Including Corrections

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

technology cycle timing compared to actual wafer production technology capacity distribution
Technology Cycle Timing Compared to Actual Wafer Production Technology Capacity Distribution

>0.7mm

0.7-0.4mm

0.4-0.3mm

0.3- 0.2mm

0.2- 0.16mm

0.16-.12mm

0.08-.12mm

<0.08mm

<0.06mm

= 2003/04 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Actual

= 2007/09 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target

= 2009 ITRS Flash Un-contacted Poly Half Pitch Target

= 2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target

2008/09 ITRS: 2.5-Year Ave Cycle for DRAM

3-Year Cycle

2-Year DRAM Cycle

3-Year DRAM Cycle ; 2-year Cycle Flash and MPU

2010

2013

4Q09 SICAS Update Proposal

From Furukawa-san/Japan

To IRC 3/28/10 (modified by AA)

Feature Size (Half Pitch) (mm)

3-Year Cycle

After 2010 for

Flash; after 2013

For MPU

Year

Year

* Note: The wafer production capacity data are plotted from the SICAS* 4Q data for each year, except 2Q data for 2009. 

The width of each of the production capacity bars corresponds to the MOS IC production start silicon area for that range

of the feature size (y-axis). Data are based upon capacity if fully utilized.

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 3

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!

slide24

Industry “Node”* Alignment w/ITRS [2009 ITRS]

2.5

7.5

‘99

‘01

‘03

‘05

‘07

‘09

‘11

‘13

‘15

‘00

‘02

‘04

‘06

‘08

‘10

‘12

‘14

Year

DRAM Density “Equiv. Scaling”:

8f2

8f2

6f2

4f2

TBD

TBD

TBD

1.0f2:4b/cell

Flash Density MLC “Equiv. Scaling”:

16/11/8/5.5/4f2: 2b/cell

2.0f2: 2b/cell

1.5f2: 3b/cell

TBD

TBD

TBD

Copper

Strain

HiK/MGI, II

FDSOI

MUGFET; SiGE

Hi-u tbd

TBD

MPU Perform/Power “Equiv. Scaling”:

PastFuture

Dimensional Half Pitch Scaling (EOT not shown):

Hi-Performance

MPU/hpASIC

Public Node

References*;

+extrapolation

“Node”

“8.0”

“5.6”

“4.0”

“11”

“160”

“110”

“80”

“55”

“40”

“28”

“20”

->

“180”

“130”

“90”

“65”

“45”

“32”

“22”

“16”

303

255

214

180

151

127

107

90

76

64

54

45

38

32

27

24

~Actual

21

19

‘16

‘17

‘18

‘19

‘20

‘21

‘22

‘23

‘24

‘25

207

207

180

180

157

151

127

136

119

107

103

90

90

76

78

64

54

68

45

59

52

38

32

45

28

40

36

25

32

22

20

28

18

25

16

22

DRAM Actual M1

Flash Actual Poly

16

11

8

11

8

6

’14-’16: 300mm->450mm

@ 32nm->22nm M1

’01-’03: 200mm->300mm

@ 180nm->130nm M1

PastFuture

2009 ITRS hi-perf GLpr : 54nm 47nm 47nm 41nm 35nm 31nm 28nm 20nm 14nm

2009 ITRS hi-perf GLph : 32nm 29nm 29nm 27nm 24nm 22nm 20nm 15nm 12nm

2009 ITRS: 2009-2024

*Notes on “Nodes”: DRAM, Flash “Nodes” ~= M1 and Poly Half-pitch.

However high performance Logic (MPU, hpASIC) may have node “labels” Associated with their dimensional technology progress, as referenced in:

2009 ITWG Table Timing: 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019]

1) MPU reference: Mark Bohr Tutorial, Jul’09: http://www.wesrch.com/Documents/view_editorial.php?flag=3&editorial_id=EL1FYLN

68nm

45nm

32nm

22nm

54nm

16nm

45nm

32nm

22nm

16nm

2009 IS ITRS DRAM M1 :

11nm

2009 IS ITRS Flash Poly :

2) hpASIC reference TSMC “Nodes” Articles: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20080930205529_TSMC_Unveils_32nm_28nm_Process_Technologies_Roadmap.html ;

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=177100620

MPU/hpASIC “Node*”: “45nm” “32nm” “22nm” “16nm” “11nm” “8nm”

2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC M1 : 76nm 65nm 54nm 45nm 38nm 32nm 27nm 19nm 13nm

’91-’93: <200mm ->200mm

@ 0.5u->0.35u M1

Industry Typical “Node” vs ITRS M1 and Poly Alignment

MPU & ASIC Low-Power versions typically lag Gate Length to manage power and performance trade-offs at the same M1-based density “Node” as high-performance versions

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