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Integrated Gas and E lectricity Modelling Paul Deane Gas - Electricity Interactions Workshop June 2014. *. Title. Overview of Presentation. Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling What Impact will v ariable renewables h ave o n the gas s ystem? Long term modelling to 2050.

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  1. Integrated Gas and Electricity ModellingPaul DeaneGas - Electricity Interactions WorkshopJune 2014 *

  2. Title

  3. Overview of Presentation • Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling • What Impact will variable renewables have on the gas system? • Long term modelling to 2050

  4. Overview of Integrated Elec/Gas Model Builds on existing PLEXOS Power System model The Simplified Integrated Gas Model provides the capability to model the costs and constraints of gas delivery from its source fields via a network of pipelines, through storages and on to meet demands including those in the Electric Model. This integrated Gas/Electric Model is not intended to perform the function of a gas pipeline flow model. Rather, it uses a simple transportation algorithm to model gas flows Details of pipeline pressures and pressure drop functions not modelled. Storage volumes, pipeline flows and gas demands can be expressed in potential energy terms

  5. Model Coverage • 2030 Model is a sub set of larger EU model. • 15 minute resolution • Gas model is currently only in AI • Day Ahead and Real Time Modes (Stochastic or Independent samples)

  6. 2030 Gas Model Inputs

  7. Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling • Addition of Gas objects will impact on objective function to be minimized • This can impact solution even if gas constraints are not binding • Generally small • Test and determine if significant • Use MIP or smaller gap With Gas Without Gas

  8. ROI Gas and Wind Generation

  9. ‘Flow’- Quantity of Gas Extracted from Pipeline (TJ)

  10. Capacity Factors for CCGT

  11. Annual Gas Storage (Simplified Gas Price)

  12. Long term modelling

  13. >200 MARKAL / TIMES Users Only those countries with at least one MARKAL/TIMES modelling team active during the period are “painted.”

  14. Irish TIMES Integrated Energy Systems Model • Linear programming bottom-up energy model • Integrated model of the entire energy system • Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years) • Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units • Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) • Optimal technology selection • Minimize the total system cost • Environmental constraints • Energy and emission permits trading • Price-elastic demands

  15. Ireland Energy System 2012 1,821 ktoe 22,178 GWh Oil - TPER 8,307 ktoe 96,610 GWh 4,304 ktoe 50,055 GWh Imports 13,407 ktoe 155 TWh 2,715 ktoe 31,575 GWh Gas – TPER 4,029 ktoe 46,857 GWh 2,226 ktoe 25,888 GWh 1,349 ktoe 15,688 GWh 250 ktoe 2,907 GWh Indigenous 1,304 ktoe 15,165 GWh Elec - TFC 2,078 ktoe 24,167 GWh

  16. Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-80

  17. Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-95

  18. Implications for the Economy (€/t CO2)

  19. Conclusions • Strong technical and financial challenges ahead for gas fired plant • Long term role of gas is dependant on emission reduction ambitions and targets • CCS, Bioenergy availability are key technology risks • Policy: 2030 Climate and Energy targets

  20. Thank you www.ucc.ie/energypolicy and

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