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There is a major risk that Europe gets off-track in the 2020s

There is a major risk that Europe gets off-track in the 2020s . The current policies will not achieve the EU ambition as CO 2 intensity will rise without competitiveness benefits. EU Power Sector CO 2 emission intensity . Rising emissions in Current Policies, Coal+RES scenario.

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There is a major risk that Europe gets off-track in the 2020s

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  1. There is a major risk that Europe gets off-track in the 2020s The current policies will not achieve the EU ambition as CO2 intensity will rise without competitiveness benefits EU Power Sector CO2 emission intensity Rising emissions in Current Policies, Coal+RES scenario 1 – scenarios assumes current Member States financial commitment to RES continues at same level for each decade post 2020 and other restrictions, such as no nuclear in Germany, remain in place throughout the period Source: Pöyry analysis for European Gas Forum, 2013 Gas Naturally – EC Gas forum 9 April 2014

  2. Continuing with a coal intensive system, and despite continued support for RES, it is not possible to reverse the trend by 2050 To attempt a U-turn requires maximum deployment of all low carbon technologies post 2030 but the resultant CO2 intensity is still 17x above the 2050 target Installed Capacity in 2030 – Current Policies, Coal+RES Additions/Retirals post 2030 maximising RES, nuclear & CCS Resulting Capacity in 2050 2031-2050 Gas Naturally – EC Gas forum Source: Pöyry analysis for European Gas Forum, 2013 9 April 2014

  3. Strengthening the carbon price is the most efficient way to promote decarbonisation to at least 2030 Pöyry’s analysis of many future electricity market designs shows the optimal decarbonisation pathway has a EU ETS price c.€70/tCO2 by 2030 Relationship between carbon emission intensity and carbon price to 2030 Absolute Market scenario (AM) Dual Support scenario (DS) There is likely to be an optimal level of cost effective carbon reduction through the carbon price Significant reductions in emission intensity to levels of ~150gCO2/kWh (similar to 2030 ambition) can be delivered through progressive increase in carbon price to ~€70/tCO2using mature technology and at least cost Gas Naturally – EC Gas forum Source: Pöyry’ Point of View: From Ambition to Reality? Decarbonisation of the European Electricity Sector, 2013 9 April 2014

  4. Intermitent wind & solar will impact all other forms of generation And large scale deployment drives marginal prices towards zero, making intermittent generation economics difficult without long-term support Generation 22-30 Dec 2030 Weather patterns for 25 December 2006 Gas Naturally – EC Gas forum Source: Pöyry’s Northern Europe Electricity Intermittency Study, 2011 9 April 2014

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