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China, Hong Kong & Taiwan

China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. Dr. James G. McGann Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program January 2006. History of Chinese Policy Advice. Soviet system Research institutes were tightly bound to ministries Initially Western China analysts did not consider these institutes “think tanks”

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China, Hong Kong & Taiwan

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  1. China, Hong Kong & Taiwan Dr. James G. McGann Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program January 2006

  2. History of Chinese Policy Advice • Soviet system • Research institutes were tightly bound to ministries • Initially Western China analysts did not consider these institutes “think tanks” • Lack of formal institutions • Mao ruled by virtue of his charismatic authority • In post-Mao era a small number of leaders still made final decision but they also consulted many other officials, experts and local leaders

  3. Generations of Think Tanks • Scot Tanner wrote about a first, second and third generations of think tanks in China • First Generation • 1950s, 1960s and 1970s • Soviet system • Second Generation • 1980s, many think tanks reopened or created after the Cultural Revolution • Formed because key leaders felt CCP research was inadequate for rapid reform • Needed more innovative, empirically-based policy options as China entered the world • Third Generation • 1990s – present • Considered “Post-Tiananmen” era

  4. The First Generation • During Mao Zedong’s regime • First time China had any type of research institutes • “Policy advice” was actually research supporting government policies already in place • Important first step towards policy research even if the research institutes were so integrated in the government • Ended with the Cultural Revolution • Mao realized the research institutes were gradually becoming independent, so he closed them • Any opposition to Mao was stopped until his death in 1976

  5. The Second Generation • Problems • Absence of a generation of scholars • Institutes needed distance from the government for innovation • The Party was distrustful of anything separate from the government • Progress • Ambiguous relationship allowed the institutes to be more flexible in the reforming of politics • Created new policies and waited until the leadership was ready to accept their idea • Enough distance to comfortably support or deny any controversial policy

  6. The Third Generation • Tiananmen Square Incident • Many think tanks were closed or became quiet for a period after the incident • The disaster forced many scholars to reflect about the origins of unrest • Socio-economic changes • As the economy opened up so did the amount of outlets for think tanks to publish their ideas • Economic think tanks are the best example of the third generation because they were impacted by both Tiananmen and the socio-economic changes • Progress • Links to leaders have become more ambiguous • Greater exposure to Western theories and techniques • Very gradual emergence of “policy communities”

  7. Types of Think Tanks • Government • Direct services to the government • Formulating positions • Designing implementation procedures • Consulting on specific issues • Majority of research institutes are in some way related to the government • University • CASS is the leading academic institution • Less influence and distrusted after Tiananmen • Class-room oriented • More theoretical and historical research • Independent • Small number has recently emerged • Influence is limited but provide a forum for officials to discuss sensitive issues

  8. Types of Think Tanks in China *The Universities each have many small institutes but count as a single institute for this graph

  9. Areas of Research • International Relations • More interaction with foreigners has led to better IR policy advice • Often shape the foreign views of Chinese foreign policy • Economy • More relevant and important as the economy grows • Leadership (previously Zhu Rongji and now Wen Jaibao) is much more likely to listen to scholarly advice • Military • Although more open today, still very hard to understand • Research topics include: intelligence, weapons, international exchanges and general military research

  10. Research Subject Areas

  11. Governmental Influence on an Analyst’s Policy Advice • Positional influence • The majority of think tanks are government funded • Their position in the government impacts the type of information they receive • Expertise influence • Many think tanks have a specific region of interest • More importance is placed upon institutes whose region is important to China (such as the United States) • Personal relationships • Arguably the most important impact, yet hardest to document • Close relationships with CCP leadership helps an institutes policies • Experiential influence • Study abroad, living abroad or foreign travel • Officials are more likely to listen to those who have had short abroad encounters (meeting with diplomats, observing different policies)

  12. Analysts Influence on the Government • Internal reports • Small group policy meetings • Informal consultations with policy makers • Internal conferences • Appearances in Chinese or Western media • Academic articles or books

  13. Problems with Today’s Chinese Think Tanks • Horizontal structure • Joint projects are rare except when a foreign institution coordinates the research • System is “stove-piped” into hierarchies • The most influential institutes are also the most closely linked with the government • Personal relationships are still valued above everything else • Many think tanks are run by previous government officials • Financially unstable • Losing scholars because salaries are low (compared with the growing private sector) • Limited amount of research with small budget • Public is still largely unaware of key issues • Most publications are not widely circulated or read (censorship) • Lack of public debate about important policy issues

  14. Hong Kong v Mainland China Think Tanks • HK has more horizontal communication • Annual China-ASEAN Roundtable, organized by the Center of Asian Studies at Hong Kong University • Scholars view HK officials as much more likely to listen to think tanks’ advice • Political party research institutes can influence legislators • Pressure groups influence has decreased drastically since the handover • Many more independent think tanks in HK • Encourages public participation in research • Only one government think tank • Many international think tanks chose HK • They study current events in mainland China • Mainly serve commercial or foreign interest

  15. Hong Kong

  16. Taiwan v Mainland China Think Tanks • Many more independent think tanks • 2/3 of Taiwan’s think tanks are independent compared with 40% in Hong Kong and 15% in mainland China • Experts allowed to develop policy advice without the government shaping their results • The majority focus on economics and cross-strait relations • Unique think tank interactive system accredited with helping Taiwan overcome the Asian financial crisis • Think tanks attempt to either maintain relations with the mainland or educate the international community about Taiwan • Ex: Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University

  17. Taiwan

  18. Conclusions • “Three” China analysis • A large number of Hong Kong and Taiwan’s think tanks discuss the inter-China relationships • Mainland China has a smaller number of think tanks dealing with this issue • Independent think tanks • Small number on the mainland means policy advice is almost always influenced by the government • Through their separation from the mainland, the Hong Kong and Taiwan think tank community have experienced more autonomy

  19. Bibliography • Chin, James K. “Think Tanks and the Policy Community in Hong Kong.” NIRA Review Summer (2000) 46-51. • Gill, Bates and James Mulvenon. “Chinese Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions.” China Quarterly (2002) 617-624. • Glaser, Bonnie S. and Phillip C. Saunders. “Chinese Civilian Foreign Policy Research Institutes: Evolving Roles and Increasing Influence.” China Quarterly (2002) 597-616. • Lee-in Chen Chiu. “The Role of Scholars and Think Tanks in Taiwan’s Economic Policy-Making Process.” NIRA Review Spring (1999) 41-5. • Li, He. “The Role of Think Tanks in Chinese Foreign Policy.” Problems of Post-Communism 49.2 March/April (2002) 33-43. • Naughton, Barry. “China’s Economic Think Tanks: Their Changing Role in the 1990s.” China Quarterly (2002) 625-635. • Shambaugh, David. “China’s International Relations Think Tanks: Evolving Structure and Process.” China Quarterly (2002) 575-596. • Tanner, M. Scot. “Changing Windows on a Changing China: The Evolving ‘Think Tank’ System and the Case of the Public Security Sector.” China Quarterly (2002) 559-574. • Think Tank Database of the Foreign Policy Research Institute

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