Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Deyr 2010/11 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia January 26, 2011 Hiran Region Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • FSNAU Food security field analyst of Hiran was able to collect data directly from the field in Mataban areas. • The information from other areas that could not be accessed directly due to insecurity was collected through teleconferencing with enumerators, key informants/focus groups

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Iincome • 1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: own production, purchase and food gifts • Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goats • 2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods • Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire wood, building sticks, fodder);main sources of food: own production, purchase and food gifts • Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own production and purchases

4. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall • Overall Statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of Hiran region. Satellite imagery indicated cumulative rainfall (October-December 2010) of 0-20% of the normal. • Start of Season: No effective rainfall commenced • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very light showers with no impact on livelihoods were received in localized pockets of Beletweyne riverine livelihood.

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions (NDVI)

6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region further deteriorated security situation. Beletweyne and its surroundings are the epicentre of the current conflict. • Regrouping and militia build-up in the region likely to cause another large confrontation • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Human death and injuries • Trade disruptions • Increased IDPs due to civil insecurity • Restricted humanitarian interventions • Outmigration of business and traders, negatively impacting food availability and job opportunity of poor households Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

7. Agriculture Regional Cereal Production by District

8. AgricultureTrends in Regional Cereal Production Deyr Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

9. 1. The farmers are considerably benefitting from crop fodder price increase which is 200% (10,000 to 30,000 SoSh/bundle)higher same month last year (Dec’09), FSNAU, Dec. ‘102. Average sorghum crop – irrigated. Beletweyne, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos 1 1 2 3

10. Agriculture Regional Cereal Flow Deyr 2010 local cereal flow: Cereals come from Bay (sorghum), Shabelle including Banadir (maize) and Qalafe (Ethiopian side), though the supply reduced following the crop failure in the regions.

11. Agriculture Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily Labour Wage Rates Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Red Sorghum) • Factors Influencing: • Sorghum prices: • Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods • Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region as a result of sorghum harvest failure. • Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow • Labour rates: • High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas into main towns and riverine after the crop harvest failure in agropastoral livelihoods Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate (Beletweyn market)

12. Agriculture Regional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Daily Labour Rate & Red Sorghum • Factors Influencing ToT: • High sorghum prices. • Decrease of labour wage rates due to low demand and high supply of labour.

13. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Deyr 2010/11 • Water availability is average in agro pastoral and riverine livelihood zones and very poor in Hawd and Southern Inland Pastoral due to complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 seasonal rainfall performances. • Very poor pasture condition in all livelihoods. • Very poor livestock body condition and high livestock death in all LZs • Abnormal migration to Galgadud, Somali Region of Ethiopia for safe place, good pasture and food aid. • Normal migration to riverine areas sharing the limited resources which may create natural resource conflict.

14. Livestock Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings

15. Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in local goat prices • Factors Influencing: • L. Goat prices: • Poor livestock body condition • Low demand of livestock after the end of Hajj period. • Civil insecurity • ToT goat to sorghum: • High sorghum prices • Poor livestock body condition • Less saleable animals in the region • Decreased livestock prices • Low demand on livestock demand after the end of Hajj season Regional Trends in ToT: local goat to cereal (red sorghum)

16. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Poor pasture conditions as a result of complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 rains in all livelihoods leading to poor livestock body condition and livestock deaths. The situation is likely to deteriorate further in the coming harsh Jilaal season, thus the anticipated outcome will be worse than it is now. Poor cattle body conditions in Agropastoral. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor goat body conditions. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ’10 Poor camel body condition. Teedaan,Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ‘10

17. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) • High local cereal prices • The fluctuation of exchange rate (SoSh/USD) • Civil insecurity – high tension restricting trade movements • Increased illegal taxes • Increased reliance on imported cereals following the 6 -7 consecutive seasons of crop failures

18. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

19. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010 Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011

20. IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Agro-Pastoral 100% Poor & 50% Middle in HE, 50% Middle in AFLC, deterioration trend; Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in HE, 25% poor in AFLC and 50% M in AFLC; Hawd 50% Poor in HE, 50% P in AFLC; Riverine 100% Poor & 75% Middle in HE and 25% M in AFLC. • Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in all Livelihoods • Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day • Water Access: adequate in riverine (unsafe), poor to very poor in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods • Destitution/Displacement: Concentrated and increasing • Coping: Distress strategies and increasing in agro-pastoral and Pastoral LZ, but slight improving in riverine LZ, • Livelihood Assets: accelerated and critical depletion or loss of assets • Main Contributing Factors: • 6 - 7 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to: • Consecutive seasons of crop failures • Poor pasture/browse conditions leading to deterioration of body condition for all livestock species • High food and non-food prices, high fodder prices • Significant reduction of household income; coping through collection of bush products, labour migration to riverine (agropastoralists) and urban centers, limited remittances, social support

21. IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

22. IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

23. The End