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Population Ecology Attributes of Populations Distributions III. Population Growth – change in size through time Calculating Growth Rates 1. Discrete Growth. With discrete growth, N (t+1) = N (t) λ Or, N t = N o λ t. Population Ecology Attributes of Populations Distributions

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  • Population Ecology

  • Attributes of Populations

  • Distributions

  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • 1. Discrete Growth

With discrete growth, N(t+1) = N(t)λ

Or, Nt = Noλt


  • Population Ecology

  • Attributes of Populations

  • Distributions

  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • 2. Exponential Growth – continuous reproduction

With discrete growth:

N(t+1) = N(t)λ or

Nt = Noλt

Continuous growth:

Nt = Noert

Where r = intrinsic rate of growth

(per capita and instantaneous)

and e = base of natural logs (2.72)

So, λ = er


  • If λ is between zero and 1, the r < 0 and the population will decline.

  • If λ = 1, then r = 0 and the population size will not change.

  • If λ >1, then r > 0 and the population will increase.

  • Population Ecology

  • Attributes of Populations

  • Distributions

  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • 3. Equivalency


The rate of population growth is measured as:

The derivative of the growth equation: Nt = Noert

dN/dt = rNo

  • Population Ecology

  • Attributes of Populations

  • Distributions

  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • 3. Equivalency


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Table

    - static: look at one point in time and survival for one time period


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Table


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Table

Why λ ? (discrete breeding season and discrete time intervals)


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Table

    - dynamic (or “cohort”) – follow a group of individuals through their life

Song Sparrows Mandarte Isl., B.C. (1988)


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.

Number reaching each birthday are subsequent values of nx


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.

Survivorship (lx): proportion of population surviving to age x.


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.

Survivorship (lx): proportion of population surviving to age x.

Mortality: dx = # dying during interval x to x+1.

Mortality rate: mx = proportion of individuals age x that die during interval x to x+1.


Survivorship Curves:

Describe age-specific probabilities of survival, as a consequence of age-specific mortality risks.


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.

Survivorship (lx): proportion of population surviving to age x.

Number alive DURING age class x: Lm = (nx + (nx+1))/2


Age classes (x): x = 0, x = 1, etc.

Initial size of the population: nx, at x = 0.

Survivorship (lx): proportion of population surviving to age x.

Number alive DURING age class x: Lm = (nx + (nx+1))/2

Expected lifespan at age x = ex

- T = Sum of Lm's for age classes = , > than age (for 3, T = 9)

- ex = T/nx (number of individuals in the age class) ( = 9/12 = 0.75)

- ex = the number of additional age classes an individual can expect to live.


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Tables

    2. Age Class Distributions


III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

    B. The Effects of Age Structure

    1. Life Tables

    2. Age Class Distributions

When these rates equilibrate, all age classes are growing at the same single rate – the intrinsic rate of increase of the population (rm)


Net Reproductive Rate = Σ(lxbx) = 2.1

Number of daughters/female during lifetime.

If it is >1 (“replacement”), then the population has the potential to increase multiplicatively (exponentially).


Generation Time – T = Σ(xlxbx)/ Σ(lxbx) = 1.95


Intrinsic rate of increase:

rm (estimated) = ln(Ro)/T = 0.38

Pop growth dependent on reproductive rate (Ro) and age of reproduction (T).


Intrinsic rate of increase:

rm (estimated) = ln(Ro)/T = 0.38

Pop growth dependent on:

reproductive rate (Ro) and age of reproduction (T).

Doubling time = t2 = ln(2)/r = 0.69/0.38 = 1.82 yrs


Northern Elephant Seals: <100 in 1900  150,000 in 2000. r = 0.073, λ = 1.067

Malthus: All populations have the capacity to expand exponentially


R = 10

T = 1

r = 2.303

Net Reproductive Rate = Σ(lxbx) = 10

Generation Time – T = Σ(xlxbx)/ Σ(lxbx) = 1.0

rm (estimated) = ln(Ro)/T = 2.303


R = 10

T = 1

r = 2.303

R = 11

T = 1

r = 2.398


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • - increase fecundity, increase growth rate (obvious)

  • - decrease generation time (reproduce earlier) – increase growth rate

R =11

T = 1

r = 2.398

R = 12

T = 0.833

r = 2.983


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • - increase fecundity, increase growth rate (obvious)

  • - decrease generation time (reproduce earlier) – increase growth rate

  • - increasing survivorship – DECREASE GROWTH RATE (lengthen T)

R = 11

T = 1

r = 2.398

R = 20

T = 1.5

r = 2.00


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • - increase fecundity, increase growth rate (obvious)

  • - decrease generation time (reproduce earlier) – increase growth rate

  • - increasing survivorship – DECREASE GROWTH RATE (lengthen T)

  • - survivorship adaptive IF:

  • - necessary to reproduce at all

  • - by storing E, reproduce disproportionately in the future

R = 230

T = 2.30

r = 2.36

Original r = 2.303


Robert Malthus

1766-1834


Premise:

- as population density increases, resources become limiting and cause an increase in mortality rate, a decrease in birth rate, or both...

r > 0

DEATH

BIRTH

RATE

r < 0

DENSITY


Premise:

- as population density increases, resources become limiting and cause an increase in mortality rate, a decrease in birth rate, or both...

r > 0

RATE

r < 0

DEATH

BIRTH

DENSITY


Premise:

- as population density increases, resources become limiting and cause an increase in mortality rate, a decrease in birth rate, or both...

r > 0

r < 0

DEATH

RATE

BIRTH

DENSITY


As density increases, successful reproduction declines

And juvenile suvivorship declines (mortality increases)


Lots of little plants begin to grow and compete. This kills off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.


Premise: off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

Result:

There is a density at which r = 0 and DN/dt = 0.

THIS IS AN EQUILIBRIUM....

r = 0

DEATH

RATE

BIRTH

DENSITY

K


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation:

    • Exponential:

    • dN/dt = rN

N

t


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation:

    • Exponential: Logistic:

    • dN/dt = rNdN/dt = rN [(K-N)/K]

K

N

N

t

t


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation (Pearl-Verhulst Equation, 1844-45):

    • Logistic:

    • dN/dt = rN [(K-N)/K]

When a population is very small (N~0), the logistic term ((K-N)/K) approaches K/K (=1) and growth rate approaches the exponential maximum (dN/dt = rN).

K

N

t


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation:

    • Logistic:

    • dN/dt = rN [(K-N)/K]

As N approaches K, K-N approaches 0; so that the term ((K-N)/K) approaches 0 and dN/dt approaches 0 (no growth).

K

N

t


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation:

    • Logistic:

    • dN/dt = rN [(K-N)/K]

Should N increase beyond K, K-N becomes negative, as does dN/dt (the population will decline in size).

K

N

t


  • Premise off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • 2. Result

  • 3. The Logistic Growth Equation:

    • Logistic:

    • dN/dt = rN [(K-N)/K] [(N-m)/K]

Minimum viable population size add (N-m)/N

K

N

m

t


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • E. Limits on Growth: Density Dependence

  • F. Temporal Dynamics


F. Temporal Dynamics off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

- DISCRETE GROWTH

ROUGHLY, growth per generation is: log(Nt+1) - log(Nt) = R[log(K) - log(Nt)]

SO:

when R < 1, the population will grow only a fraction of the difference between K and Nt. Asymptotic approach to K.

K

N

Nt

t


F off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. . Temporal Dynamics

- DISCRETE GROWTH

ROUGHLY, growth per generation is: log(Nt+1) - log(Nt) = R[log(K) - log(Nt)]

SO:

If R = 1, then the population reaches K exactly.

K

N

Nt

t


F off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. . Temporal Dynamics

- DISCRETE GROWTH

ROUGHLY, growth per generation is: log(Nt+1) - log(Nt) = R[log(K) - log(Nt)]

SO:

If 1.0 < R < 2.0, then the population overshoots by progressively smaller amounts... convergent oscillation.

K

N

Nt

t


SO: off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

If 1.0 < R < 2.0, then the population overshoots by progressively smaller amounts... convergent oscillation.

K

N

Nt

t


SO: off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

If 1.0 < R < 2.0, then the population overshoots by progressively smaller amounts... convergent oscillation.

K

N

Nt

t


F off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. . Temporal Dynamics

- DISCRETE GROWTH

ROUGHLY, growth per generation is: log(Nt+1) - log(Nt) = R[log(K) - log(Nt)]

SO:

when 2 < R < 2.5, oscillations increase each time interval; divergent oscillation initially.

But at low N, the linearity breaks down and this equation is not descriptive. End up with a stable limit cycle.Over 2.5? Chaotic.

K

N

Nt

t


F off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. . Temporal Dynamics

- DISCRETE GROWTH


F off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. . Temporal Dynamics

- CONTINUOUS GROWTH

Breed here, and may be out of balance with resources

Lags occur because of developmental time between acquisition of resources FOR breeding and the event of breeding itself.

K

N

Nt

t


F. off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. Temporal Dynamics

- CONTINUOUS GROWTH

Population cycles are a function of R and the lag time (t).

Either high R or long lags increase the amplitude

<0.37 < 1.6 > 1.6


F. off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive. Temporal Dynamics

- CONTINUOUS GROWTH

Growth curves are not an intrinsic characteristic of a species – they can change with environmental conditions. Daphnia


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • E. Limits on Growth: Density Dependence

  • F. Temporal Dynamics

  • G. Spatial Dynamics and Metapopulations


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • E. Limits on Growth: Density Dependence

  • F. Temporal Dynamics

  • G. Spatial Dynamics and Metapopulations

Dealing with small populations with increase chance of stochastic extinction (e).

The survival of the metapopulation is dependent on a rate of migration that can ‘rescue’ extinct at a compensatory rate.


  • III. Population Growth – change in size through time off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

  • Calculating Growth Rates

  • B. The Effects of Age Structure

  • C. Growth Potential

  • D. Life History Redux

  • E. Limits on Growth: Density Dependence

  • F. Temporal Dynamics

  • G. Spatial Dynamics and Metapopulations

p = proportion of suitable habitats occupied

e = extinction rate

ep = prop of habitats being vacated

Rate of colonization depends on fraction of patches that are empty (1-p), and number of occupied patches dispersing colonists.

c = migration rate, and so rate of colonization = cp(1-p)

Change in patch occupancy:

dp/dt = cp(1-p) - ep

Peq = 1 – e/c

Dealing with small populations with increase chance of stochastic extinction (e).

The survival of the metapopulation is dependent on a rate of migration that can ‘rescue’ extinct at a compensatory rate.

If e > c, pop goes extinct.


G. Spatial Dynamics and Metapopulations off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

What influences e and c?

Extinction probability is strongly influenced by population size.


G. Spatial Dynamics and Metapopulations off most of the plants, and only a few large plants survive.

What influences e and c?

Degree of patch isolation affects colonization probability

Extinction probability is strongly influenced by population size.


Greater Patch area means more resources, larger populations, and lower e

Low e/c

??

??

High e/c

Closer patches mean higher c



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