Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the Bonn Agreement Area

1. BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the Bonn Agreement Area Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

2. Background Introduction to the different accident types Frequency of the accident types Spills from the different accident types Future scenario Regional differences Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Summary and Conclusions Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Overview

3. Overall objective: Apply the accident model to describe the: Accident type Location Spill size Spill substance Basis: Traffic model Cargo model Risk Reducing measures Accident statistics Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil BackgroundTask H Oil spills

4. - Ship-ship collision model Node collisions Route collisions - Groundings - STS/bunkering operations/loading buoy/FPSO - Offshore platforms Operational spills Spills from collisions - Wind parks Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil BackgroundAccidents covered

5. Route collisions The collision frequencies depend on: • the length of the route segment • the traffic intensity in each direction • the length, breadth and speed of the ships • the deviation of the ships from the route axis • the causation probability Pc Head-on Overtaking Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident typesShip-Ship collisions

6. Node collisions The collision frequencies depend on: • the traffic intensity in each direction • the length, breadth and speed of the ships • the crossing angle • the causation probability Pc Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident typesShip-Ship collisions

7. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident frequency, 2011All types of accidents

8. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsChannel

9. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident frequencyDover Strait

10. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsGerman Bight

11. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011 (t/year)All types of accidentsAll sizes of spills, the average spill is dominated by extremely large spills(long term average)

12. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsChannel

13. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsDover Strait

14. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsGerman Bight

15. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsNorth Sea

16. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011Small spills <300t

17. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills, 2011Medium spills 300t-5000t

18. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidentall spills, 2011Large spills > 5000t

19. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident frequency - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages

20. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidental spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages

21. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accidentall spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020Small spills <300t

22. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020Medium spills 300t-5000t

23. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020Large spills >5000t

24. TSS reduces risks significantly 2020 2020 2020 Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest

25. VTS has significant effect on ships with no pilots 2020 2020 2020 Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest

26. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional resultsProject area and sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

27. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional results, 2011Project area and sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

28. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional results, 2020Project area and sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

29. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional resultsDivided into sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

30. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional results, 2011Divided into sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

31. Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Regional results, 2020Divided into sub regions:1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

32. Areas with high intensity traffic in narrow lanes gives large contributions when no TSS is applied Largest contributions to reduction of route collisions from TSS Largest contributor to node collisions at Dover Straight Not insignificant contributions from the operational spills from platforms Substantial regional differences in accidents and spills Methodology Summary and conclusion 1

33. Substantial risk for spills from platforms (Ship-platform collisions, platform accidents, blow-out) Little risk for spills from wind farms (ship-Wind turbine collision) Development of risk on sub-regional level: SB4: More risk for collision, wind farms SB5: More risk for collision Impact of spills have not been evaluated (Be-Aware II) Methodology Summary and conclusion 2

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