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Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations. Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative Project. Participants. Stony Brook University: Brian Colle, Mike Erickson NWS New York City:

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Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative Project

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Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

Operational Aspects of the

COMET Collaborative Project


Participants

Participants

  • Stony Brook University:

    • Brian Colle, Mike Erickson

  • NWS New York City:

    • Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz, Adrienne Leptich

  • NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly:

    • Al Cope

  • NWS Eastern Region Headquarters

    • Josh Watson

  • NWS MARFC:

    • Joe Ostrowski


Objective

Objective

Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)

  • Into AWIPS.

  • Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

Why ?

  • Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

How??

  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web.

  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

Data

  • Web

  • AWIPS

  • GFE


Web http chaos msrc sunysb edu neus nwp graphics html

Webhttp://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html


Precip plumes

Precip Plumes


Awips

AWIPS

  • 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data

  • Available ~11 UTC

  • 36 Hour Forecast

  • Volume Browser:

    • Members

    • Means/Standard Deviation

    • Probability of Exceedence


Awips1

AWIPS


Awips qpf members

AWIPS – QPF Members


Awips mean

AWIPS - Mean


Awips temperature members

AWIPS – Temperature Members


Awips wind members

AWIPS – Wind Members


Awips concerns

AWIPS - Concerns

  • Installation Instructions are Available.

  • Still needs some “clean-up.”

  • New “build” issues.

  • Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

SSHP

Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP

Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE

Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS


Accessing sshp

Accessing SSHP


1 gfe qpf deterministic

1. GFE QPF - Deterministic


Convert 6 hour ndfd qpf to rr2 text product for use with sshp

Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP

Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed


In sshp

In SSHP

Basins:

  • Lodi - Saddle R.

  • Gardiner – Wallkill R.

  • HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook

  • Springfield – Rahway R.

  • Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R.

  • Southbury – Pomperaug R.

  • Yantic – Yantic R.


2 eps into sshp under development

2. EPS into SSHP (under development)

  • Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.

  • Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation.

    • RR2 Product (ftp’ed):

      • Mean

      • Worst Case scenario

      • Individual member data


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32

Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin


Operational aspects of the comet collaborative project

GFE QPF

SBU Ensemble Members

Mean Average

Worst case


Selecting basin qpf in sshp

Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP


Example worse case in sshp

Example Worse Case in SSHP


Future work

Future Work

  • Automate the FTP of Data

  • Train Staff

  • Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs


The future in sshp

The Future in SSHP


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