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Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations. Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative Project. Participants. Stony Brook University: Brian Colle, Mike Erickson NWS New York City:

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Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

Operational Aspects of the

COMET Collaborative Project


Participants
Participants Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • Stony Brook University:

    • Brian Colle, Mike Erickson

  • NWS New York City:

    • Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz, Adrienne Leptich

  • NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly:

    • Al Cope

  • NWS Eastern Region Headquarters

    • Josh Watson

  • NWS MARFC:

    • Joe Ostrowski


Objective
Objective Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)

  • Into AWIPS.

  • Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.


Why ? Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.


How?? Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web.

  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.


Data Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • Web

  • AWIPS

  • GFE


Web http chaos msrc sunysb edu neus nwp graphics html
Web Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operationshttp://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html


http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Precip plumes
Precip Plumes Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Awips
AWIPS Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data

  • Available ~11 UTC

  • 36 Hour Forecast

  • Volume Browser:

    • Members

    • Means/Standard Deviation

    • Probability of Exceedence


Awips1
AWIPS Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Awips qpf members
AWIPS – QPF Members Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Awips mean
AWIPS - Mean Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Awips temperature members
AWIPS – Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological OperationsTemperature Members


Awips wind members
AWIPS – Wind Members Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Awips concerns
AWIPS - Concerns Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

  • Installation Instructions are Available.

  • Still needs some “clean-up.”

  • New “build” issues.

  • Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.


SSHP Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP

Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE

Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS


Accessing sshp
Accessing SSHP Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


1 gfe qpf deterministic
1. GFE QPF - Deterministic Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations


Convert 6 hour ndfd qpf to rr2 text product for use with sshp
Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP

Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed


In sshp
In SSHP SSHP

Basins:

  • Lodi - Saddle R.

  • Gardiner – Wallkill R.

  • HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook

  • Springfield – Rahway R.

  • Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R.

  • Southbury – Pomperaug R.

  • Yantic – Yantic R.


2 eps into sshp under development
2. EPS into SSHP SSHP(under development)

  • Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.

  • Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation.

    • RR2 Product (ftp’ed):

      • Mean

      • Worst Case scenario

      • Individual member data


Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32 SSHP

Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin


GFE QPF SSHP

SBU Ensemble Members

Mean Average

Worst case


Selecting basin qpf in sshp
Selecting Basin SSHP QPF in SSHP


Example worse case in sshp
Example Worse SSHP Case in SSHP


Future work
Future Work SSHP

  • Automate the FTP of Data

  • Train Staff

  • Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs



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