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TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios. Maryse Labriet, Richard Loulo u Amit Kanudia, Kathleen Vaillancourt Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD) Montreal, Canada. International Energy Workshop 2005 Kyoto, July 5-7 , 2005.

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TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios

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Times modeling of energy emission and climate scenarios l.jpg

TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios

Maryse Labriet, Richard Loulou

Amit Kanudia, Kathleen Vaillancourt

Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD)

Montreal, Canada

International Energy Workshop 2005

Kyoto, July 5-7, 2005


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1. World multi-regional TIMES model• Structure of the model• Characteristics of the base case

2. Exploring climate policies• Preferred mitigation options and costs• Role of sequestration• Emission vs concentration target3. Conclusion and further

Outilne


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The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)

•Linear programming & technology rich model for representing, optimizing and analyzing the production, conversion, trade and end-use of various forms of energy

•Supply-demand partial equilibrium on energy markets

•Perfect foresight & information : 2000-2100

•Maximization of Social Surplus, while satisfying final demands and exogenous constraints (eg. CO2 limits)

•Multi-regional  15 linked regions: AFR, AUS, CAN, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, JPN, MEA, MEX, ODA, SKO, USA, WEU

1. TIMES modeling


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Reference Energy System (RES)

Climate module CO2CONCatm,up,loRADFORCINGTEMPatm,lo

1. TIMES modeling

Ex: veh-km driven by car, tonnes aluminum, number apartments to heat, etc.


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Environmental constraint

Reporting parameters

Climate module

conversion CO2-eq

Non-CO2 gases: exogenous forcing

1. TIMES modeling

ATM CONC

(stock GtC)

Linear 3 reservoirs - Atmosphere - Biosphere & ocean surface

- Deep ocean

CO2 emi

(flow GtC)

From TIMES (processes)

RADIATIVE FORCING (W/m2)

One log equation

GLOBAL MEAN TEMP INCREASE (°C)

Linear 2 reservoirs

- Atm & ocean surface

- Deep ocean

Radiative forcing sensitivity to CO2

concentration:

γ = 4.1 W/m2

Slightly smaller in TAR

Temperature sensitivity to CO2

concentration:

from 1 to 10°C?High uncertainty

Equations

Adapted from Nordhaus and Boyer (1999)

Well documented

Good approximation of those obtained from more complex climate models


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TIMES

•Multinational work by members of ETSAP

•Built on the best features of MARKAL and EFOM (B-U energy models) + new features (long term, variable length of time periods, vintaging of technologies, etc.)

•New assumptions about input data: long-term energy services to satisfy, fossil and renewable resources, future technologies, specific policies

•Endogenous international tradeof natural gas, LNG, crude oil and CO2 permits  competitive markets*  quantities and prices are endogenously computed* control of annual oil production quantities by OPEC, so as to approximate the oil production decisions of the cartel

TIMES documentation: www.etsap.org/documentation.asp

1. TIMES modeling


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Energy and emissions in the Base case

Inspired by Common POLES-IMAGE (CPI) base case

•Moderate POP and GDP growth + technological progress

•Continuing growth of primary energy use

•Gas & coal become the dominant energy carriers after 2050 (power plants and industry sector)

•Intermediate range of emissions (IPCC-SRES)

1. TIMES modeling


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Assessment of two types of climate policies

World emission limits 2005-2100 (noted E550)

•Emission paths as proposed by the literature (Innovation Modeling Comparison Project) to reach the long-term stabilization of atm. concentration at 550 ppm

•Sensitivity: sequestration

Single concentration limit in 2100 (noted C550)

•Fixed at the level obtained in E550

NB: All regions participate in a world market of CO2 permits (full cooperation)

2. Climate policies


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Mitigation options (E550)

Crucial role of CO2 removalSequestrationUp to 79% of CO2 reduction in 2100Terrestrial sinks and deep saline aquifersPower plantsCCGT  CCGT-capture  coal-captureFuture role of coal in electricity generation Sensitivity Marginal cost x 5 in 2100 wo sequestrationUncertainties Potentiel? Costs? Permanence?

HydroFull potential with or without sequestrationNuclearCompensate for non-availabilityRenewableof CO2 sequestration

Hydrogen productionTechnologiesHigher production with CO2 sequestration Gas reforming BAU, with and wo CO2 sequestrationElectrolysis only when CO2 sequestration not available

2. Climate policies

COAL

RNW

Substitution in end-use sectorsRes/Com/IndCoal/Gas/Oil  ElectricityTransport Alcohols from biomass, efficient vehiclesElectricity in cases wo sequestrationor with higher reduction targets (450ppm)

NUC


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Emission vs concentration target (E550 vs C550)

E550 = Emissions limited from 2005 to 2100. Exogenous path.

C550 = CO2 concentration limited in 2100 only. Defined by E550.

Sequestration not allowed here.

2. Climate policies

Earlier actionHigher long-term emissionsSame final concentration

Energy actionsFaster transition from fossil to non-emitting power plants (hydro and nuclear)Less renewable in LTLower substitution to electricity in end-use sectors in LT

Higher flexibility in the timing of action


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Mitigation costs (preliminary)

Results2050 = 19 to 70 $/tCO22080 =119 to 510 $/tCO22100 = up to > 2000 $/tCO2 due to end-use rigidities?

Reduction of cost

Concentration-oriented climate policy (green) higher flexibility in the timing

Sequestration options (pink) replace expensive carbon-free electricity generation

2. Climate policies


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Final remarks

New TIMES model• World multi-regional, long-term, technology rich model• Climate module (integrated assessment)

Climate policy applications• Technology oriented modeling approach becoming a necessity for representing detailed policies• Abatement costs and cost-efficient technical options within the energy system• Different types of climate policies (emission path, concentration bound, tax, permits)• Regional reduction efforts (not presented here)  evaluate burden-sharing issues (permit allocations)

3. Conclusion


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Current developments

Regular updates• Technologies, long-term evolution of demands

Non-CO2 and non-energy GHGs (EMF-21)• Calibration of CH4 and N2O &Modeling of abatement options • Energy & non-energy sectors (eg. waste, manure, adipic & nitric acid industry)• Evaluation of multigas climate policies

Stochastic programming(EMF-22)• Implementation and experimentation • Evaluation of climate policies under uncertain climate sensitivity (1.5°C to 4.5 °C? as high as 11°C?)

3. Conclusion


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Groupe d'Études et de Recherche en Analyse des Décisions (GERAD)

3000 chemin de la Côte Sainte Catherine

Montréal (Qc), H3T 2A7, Canada

Tel.: (+1) (514) 340-6053 ext.6033

Fax: (+1) (514) 340-5665

[email protected]

[email protected]

Thank you


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