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Vivien Foster & Cecilia Brice ñ o-Garmendia, World Bank. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort. Key Message #1. ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade.

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Vivien Foster & Cecilia Brice ñ o-Garmendia, World Bank

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Vivien foster cecilia brice o garmendia world bank

Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia,

World Bank


Africa infrastructure country diagnostic a multi stakeholder effort

Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort


Key message 1

Key Message #1

ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade


Vivien foster cecilia brice o garmendia world bank

ICT responsible for one percentage point per capita of additional growth in early 2000s


The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow

The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow


The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow1

The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow

Fiscal revenues generated by ICT industry (via license fees and taxes) amount to 4% of GDP on average


Key message 2

Key Message #2

The ICT revolution is Africa’s big infrastructure success story


Population in range of gsm signal grows tenfold in less than a decade

Population in range of GSM signal grows tenfold in less than a decade


Dramatic expansion in area served though closely following population centers

Dramatic expansion in area served though closely following population centers


And 180 million new subscribers added almost all of them prepaid

And 180 million new subscribers added, almost all of them prepaid


Key message 3

Key Message #3

The market alone can get Africa almost all the way to universal access


Market could viably reach 92 population many countries currently far off this target

Market could viably reach 92% population, many countries currently far off this target


Market could viably reach 92 population but in many countries falls short of potential

Market could viably reach 92% population, but in many countries falls short of potential

The total investment cost of closing

the coverage gap for Sub-Saharan

Africa would be only US$3 billion


Most of africa will be covered by mobile networks

Most of Africa will be covered by mobile networks


Key message 4

Key Message #4

But the reform is not yet complete and prices for mobile services remain high


Price of mobile services in africa many times higher than in south asia

Price of mobile services in Africa many times higher than in South Asia


Most african markets could support more than three mobile operators but many have less

Most African markets could support more than three mobile operators but many have less


Key message 5

Key Message #5

The fixed line segment is stagnant and relatively inefficient


Modest increases in fixed line subscription market even shrinking in south africa

Modest increases in fixed line subscription, market even shrinking in South Africa


Many fixed line incumbents remain public with low levels of efficiency

Many fixed line incumbents remain public, with low levels of efficiency


Key message 6

Key Message #6

In many countries, the government still owns the fixed operator


Only one country has fully privatized its telco half remain fully government owned

Only one country has fully privatized its telco. Half remain fully government-owned


Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent h alf remain fully government owned

Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent,half remain fully government-owned

Public ownership of operators is a drain on public finances and creates conflict of interest within government


Key message 7

Key Message #7

Broadband is the next big challenge for ICT in Africa


Cost of dial up internet access prohibitively expensive by global standards

Cost of dial-up internet access prohibitively expensive by global standards


Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low

Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low


Key message 8

Key Message #8

Reforms are needed to allow broadband companies to compete


Limited capacity public internet access could be provided by market

Limited capacity public internet access could be provided by market


Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market

Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market

Total investment cost of closing

coverage gap for public internet access in Sub-Saharan

Africa would be only US$2 bn


Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market1

Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market

But mass-market broadband won’t be commercially viable without access to spectrum, access to infrastructure for building fiber networks and low-cost access to submarine cables


Key message 9

Key Message #9

Competitive access to submarine cables can slash cost of international communications


Telephone calls to us very expensive and intra african calls even more so

Telephone calls to US very expensive, (and intra-African calls even more so)


Countries with submarine access benefit and those with competitive access even more so

Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so


Privately financed s ubmarine cable networks are growing quickly

Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly

Planned

July 2009

Operational

July 2009


Vivien foster cecilia brice o garmendia world bank

Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly

Operational

July 2009

Planned

July 2009

Need to have competing cables and multiple landing stations to avoid monopoly control over access to the cables


Key message 10

Key Message #10

More terrestrial fiber-optic cable infrastructure will also be needed


Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass market low cost broadband

300.0

249.1

250.0

200.0

Backbone bandwidth per user (kbps)

151.2

150.0

98.1

100.0

50.0

24.9

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

PSTN + WLL

Mobile

Narrowband

Broadband

PSTN + WLL

Narrowband

Broadband

Access

Access

Access

Access

Residential/

Large/Medium

Small business

business

Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass-market, low-cost broadband


Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited

Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited

Many of them are owned by public entities – often too expensive and poor quality


Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks

Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks


Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks1

Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks

Competition will drive investment into fiber on inter-city routes but not small towns and rural areas


Can combine competition on profitable routes with government support for non viable routes

Cancombine competition on profitable routes with government support for non-viable routes

Multiple competing networks on corridor routes but government network is the only fiber up-country


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