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Vivien Foster & Cecilia Brice ñ o-Garmendia, World Bank. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort. Key Message #1. ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade.

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Vivien foster cecilia brice o garmendia world bank

Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia,

World Bank



Key message 1

Key Message #1 a multi-stakeholder effort

ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade




The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow1
The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow

Fiscal revenues generated by ICT industry (via license fees and taxes) amount to 4% of GDP on average


Key message 2

Key Message #2 major fiscal cash cow

The ICT revolution is Africa’s big infrastructure success story




And 180 million new subscribers added almost all of them prepaid
And 180 million new subscribers added, population centersalmost all of them prepaid


Key message 3

Key Message #3 population centers

The market alone can get Africa almost all the way to universal access



Market could viably reach 92 population but in many countries falls short of potential
Market could viably reach 92% population, but in many countries falls short of potential

The total investment cost of closing

the coverage gap for Sub-Saharan

Africa would be only US$3 billion


Most of africa will be covered by mobile networks
Most of Africa will be covered by mobile networks countries falls short of potential


Key message 4

Key Message #4 countries falls short of potential

But the reform is not yet complete and prices for mobile services remain high




Key message 5

Key Message #5 operators but many have less

The fixed line segment is stagnant and relatively inefficient



Many fixed line incumbents remain public with low levels of efficiency
Many fixed line incumbents remain public, shrinking in South Africawith low levels of efficiency


Key message 6

Key Message #6 shrinking in South Africa

In many countries, the government still owns the fixed operator


Only one country has fully privatized its telco half remain fully government owned
Only one country has fully privatized its shrinking in South Africatelco. Half remain fully government-owned


Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent h alf remain fully government owned
Only one country has fully privatized shrinking in South Africathe incumbent,half remain fully government-owned

Public ownership of operators is a drain on public finances and creates conflict of interest within government


Key message 7

Key Message #7 shrinking in South Africa

Broadband is the next big challenge for ICT in Africa



Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low
Broadband global standardsprice gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low


Key message 8

Key Message #8 global standards

Reforms are needed to allow broadband companies to compete



Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market
Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market

Total investment cost of closing

coverage gap for public internet access in Sub-Saharan

Africa would be only US$2 bn


Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market1
Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market

But mass-market broadband won’t be commercially viable without access to spectrum, access to infrastructure for building fiber networks and low-cost access to submarine cables


Key message 9

Key Message #9 by market

Competitive access to submarine cables can slash cost of international communications


Telephone calls to us very expensive and intra african calls even more so
Telephone calls to US very expensive, (and intra-African calls even more so)



Privately financed s ubmarine cable networks are growing quickly
Privately financed competitive access even more sosubmarine cable networks are growing quickly

Planned

July 2009

Operational

July 2009


Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly

Operational

July 2009

Planned

July 2009

Need to have competing cables and multiple landing stations to avoid monopoly control over access to the cables


Key message 10

Key Message #10 quickly

More terrestrial fiber-optic cable infrastructure will also be needed


Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass market low cost broadband

300.0 quickly

249.1

250.0

200.0

Backbone bandwidth per user (kbps)

151.2

150.0

98.1

100.0

50.0

24.9

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

PSTN + WLL

Mobile

Narrowband

Broadband

PSTN + WLL

Narrowband

Broadband

Access

Access

Access

Access

Residential/

Large/Medium

Small business

business

Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass-market, low-cost broadband


Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited
Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited

Many of them are owned by public entities – often too expensive and poor quality



Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks1
Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks

Competition will drive investment into fiber on inter-city routes but not small towns and rural areas


Can combine competition on profitable routes with government support for non viable routes
Can growth in fiber networkscombine competition on profitable routes with government support for non-viable routes

Multiple competing networks on corridor routes but government network is the only fiber up-country


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