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2013 Spring Weather Outlook. MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013. Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA weather.gov/ hanford. Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013. Where do we stand?. Seasonal Rainfall

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2013 Spring Weather Outlook

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2013Spring Weather Outlook

MARAC Region V Meeting

April 24, 2013

Cindy Bean

Meteorologist

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA

weather.gov/hanford


Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013

Where do we stand?

  • Seasonal Rainfall

    • Fresno and Bakersfield – 51% of normal

    • Merced – 65% of normal

  • Since Jan 1

    • Merced and Fresno - near 32% of normal

    • Bakersfield – 57% of normal

  • April

    • Merced – 57% of normal

    • Fresno and Bakersfield – 11% of normal


Since Jan 1

Near to slightly above Normal

Well Below Normal


Since April 1

Above Normal

Well Below Normal


Current 5-Station Index

Precipitation

Amount

CURRENT YEAR

Day of

The Year


Current Reservoir Levels


Seasonal Water Supply Volume Forecast

Jan 21 2013


Winter Predictionsfor 2013

…What about El Nino?

“ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.”

--NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Sea Surface TemperaturesJanuary 2013

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Slightly Below Normal


Sea Surface Temperatures - April

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Slightly negative temperature anomalies have gradually warmed to near normal along the Equator – clearly an ENSO neutral state


2013 Spring Predictions

April 26-May 2

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Strongly Favors Warmer than normal

Favors Dry


2013 Spring Predictions

May 2013

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Favors Warmer than normal

Equal Chances


2013 Spring/Summer Predictions

May through July

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Normal

Normal


Potential Impacts

  • Reservoirs/Water Supply

    • Below normal snowpack

    • Lower than normal Spring Runoff

    • Less water for agriculture

  • Drought

    • Drought will persist or intensify

    • Last year was dry in many parts of the region. The current water year is below normal over much of the area. The threat of long-term drought impacts is real.


Potential Impacts

  • Fire Weather

    • Fuels curing earlier than normal

    • Fire season starting 4 weeks earlier than normal

    • The possibility of far drier than average fuels coupled with above normal temperatures may result in above normal large fire potential by mid-June into July.

    • Current Fuels are approaching critical. 10 hour Live FM at 78%. 1000 hr with large death rate.


For More Information…

  • Climate Prediction Center (outlooks updated 3rd Thursday of every month)

    • cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  • NWS Hanford Web Page

    • weather.gov/hanford

  • Find us on Facebook and Twitter!

  • Don Florence – dflorence@mariposacounty.org

  • Mariposa County OES – 209-742-1306


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