2013 spring weather outlook
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2013 Spring Weather Outlook. MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013. Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA weather.gov/ hanford. Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013. Where do we stand?. Seasonal Rainfall

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2013 Spring Weather Outlook

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2013 spring weather outlook

2013Spring Weather Outlook

MARAC Region V Meeting

April 24, 2013

Cindy Bean

Meteorologist

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA

weather.gov/hanford


Rainfall season 2012 2013

Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013

Where do we stand?

  • Seasonal Rainfall

    • Fresno and Bakersfield – 51% of normal

    • Merced – 65% of normal

  • Since Jan 1

    • Merced and Fresno - near 32% of normal

    • Bakersfield – 57% of normal

  • April

    • Merced – 57% of normal

    • Fresno and Bakersfield – 11% of normal


Since jan 1

Since Jan 1

Near to slightly above Normal

Well Below Normal


Since april 1

Since April 1

Above Normal

Well Below Normal


Current 5 station index

Current 5-Station Index

Precipitation

Amount

CURRENT YEAR

Day of

The Year


2013 spring weather outlook

Current Reservoir Levels


Seasonal water supply volume forecast

Seasonal Water Supply Volume Forecast

Jan 21 2013


Winter predictions for 2013

Winter Predictionsfor 2013

…What about El Nino?

“ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.”

--NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Sea surface temperatures january 2013

Sea Surface TemperaturesJanuary 2013

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Slightly Below Normal


2013 spring weather outlook

Sea Surface Temperatures - April

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Slightly negative temperature anomalies have gradually warmed to near normal along the Equator – clearly an ENSO neutral state


2013 spring predictions

2013 Spring Predictions

April 26-May 2

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Strongly Favors Warmer than normal

Favors Dry


2013 spring predictions1

2013 Spring Predictions

May 2013

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Favors Warmer than normal

Equal Chances


2013 spring summer predictions

2013 Spring/Summer Predictions

May through July

Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability

Normal

Normal


2013 spring weather outlook

Potential Impacts

  • Reservoirs/Water Supply

    • Below normal snowpack

    • Lower than normal Spring Runoff

    • Less water for agriculture

  • Drought

    • Drought will persist or intensify

    • Last year was dry in many parts of the region. The current water year is below normal over much of the area. The threat of long-term drought impacts is real.


Potential impacts

Potential Impacts

  • Fire Weather

    • Fuels curing earlier than normal

    • Fire season starting 4 weeks earlier than normal

    • The possibility of far drier than average fuels coupled with above normal temperatures may result in above normal large fire potential by mid-June into July.

    • Current Fuels are approaching critical. 10 hour Live FM at 78%. 1000 hr with large death rate.


For more information

For More Information…

  • Climate Prediction Center (outlooks updated 3rd Thursday of every month)

    • cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  • NWS Hanford Web Page

    • weather.gov/hanford

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  • Don Florence – [email protected]

  • Mariposa County OES – 209-742-1306


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