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Agenda

Agenda. Big Picture John Miller: Why study the Carbon Cycle? Arlyn Andrews: Carbon Cycle Research in ESRL and beyond Observations/Synthesis Pieter Tans: A brief history of the ESRL global carbon cycle observing system Andy Jacobson: The CarbonTracker Modeling Effort ESRL Linkages

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Agenda

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  1. Agenda • Big Picture • John Miller: Why study the Carbon Cycle? • Arlyn Andrews: Carbon Cycle Research in ESRL and beyond • Observations/Synthesis • Pieter Tans: A brief history of the ESRL global carbon cycle observing system • Andy Jacobson: The CarbonTracker Modeling Effort • ESRL Linkages • Greg Frost: Carbon Cycle Linkages to Air Quality • Adam Hirsch: The Need for Accurate Atmospheric Transport in Carbon Cycle Research • Randy Dole: Looking Ahead: Toward Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis

  2. Science Questions • Carbon Cycle Basics • Paleo CO2 • Surface Fluxes • Fossil Fuel Emissions and their fate • Rising CO2: what is the impact? • Climate change • Ocean Acidification John B. Miller

  3. Paleo-CO2 MLO CO2 Ice core CO2

  4. d[CO2]atm/dt - Ffos = Focean + Fland = -4 PgC d[CO2]atm/dt - Ffos = Fsurface = - 4 PgC d[CO2]atm/dt = + 4 PgC/yr +4 -4 -2 -2 d[CO2]atm/dt = Ffos + Fatm-oce + Foce-atm + Fph + Fresp -92 +90 -102 +100 +8 Pg OCEAN LAND

  5. IPCC 95th %ile! Fossil Fuel Emissions IPCC A2 (~67 %ile)

  6. Fate of Fossil Fuel Emissions If all the fossil fuel CO2 ended up in the atmosphere

  7. Our ~50% climate discount from ocean and land uptake Fate of Fossil Fuel Emissions What does end up in the atmosphere How long will we keep getting our discount?

  8. Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle (C4) Models Courtesy Scott Denning Permafrost releases not accounted for!

  9. Ocean AcidificationAs CO2 increases, ocean pH decreases • Independent of warming • Ability of marine organisms to form CaCO3 is reduced. • Potential for radical changes to marine food webs. Courtesy Dick Feely

  10. Anthropogenic w/surprises!? ESRL Controls on Atmospheric CO2 CO2 Variability Land Ocean diurnal seasonal interannual decadal centennial millenial Frequency

  11. d[CO2]atm/dt = Ffos + Fatm-oce + Foce-atm + Fph + Fresp -92 +90 -102 +100 +8 Pg OCEAN LAND

  12. d[CO2]atm/dt - Ffos = Focean + Fland = -4 PgC d[CO2]atm/dt = + 4 PgC/yr d[CO2]atm/dt - Ffos = Fsurface = - 4 PgC +4 -2 -2 -4 d[CO2]atm/dt = Ffos + Fatm-oce + Foce-atm + Fph + Fresp -92 +90 -102 +100 +8 Pg OCEAN LAND

  13. Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Models • C4MIP • Coupling always yields more emission. • Models forced with SRES A2 emissions. • Permafrost releases not accounted for! Friedlingstein et al, 2006

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