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Thinking: Problem Solving and Decision Making

Thinking: Problem Solving and Decision Making. Units of Thoughts. Concept A mental grouping based on shared similarity Categorizing items in one’s environment Prototype A typical best example incorporating the major features of a concept

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Thinking: Problem Solving and Decision Making

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  1. Thinking:Problem Solving and Decision Making

  2. Units of Thoughts • Concept • A mental grouping based on shared similarity • Categorizing items in one’s environment • Prototype • A typical best example incorporating the major features of a concept • The closer a new object is to our concept prototype the easier it is to categorize it • Image • Mental representation of a sensory experience

  3. Problem Solving • A problem exists where there is a difference between where you are and where you would like to be • Problem solving is the use of information to meet a specific goal • Problem Solving Steps: • Understanding the problem • Making a plan (Con v. Divergent Thinking) • Carrying out the plan • Looking back

  4. Problem Solving Strategies • Trial and Error • Algorithms • Heuristics

  5. Algorithm Examples • Y = mx +b • Figuring out a locker combination by trying every possible combination • Not always efficient!

  6. Heuristic Examples • i before e ….

  7. Problems Solving Problems

  8. Mental Set • A tendency to approach a problem in a particular way (often one that has been successful in the past) • The set may or may not be helpful in solving a new problem • Ex: A child opens the door to a store by pulling on it. He later insists on pulling the door handle of any similar-looking door to open it, and is puzzled that some of them must be pushed instead.

  9. Mental Set: Example • What are the final three letters in the sequence? • O-T-T-F-?-?-? • J-F-M-A-?-?-? • How could you arrange six matches to create 4 equilateral triangles?

  10. Fixation • A mental set that hinders the solution of a problem • One needs to think beyond the mental set to solve the new problem • Thinking outside the box • Dots and Candle problems

  11. Functional Fixedness • The inability to think of different uses for objects • Your turn: You have 1,000 VHS tapes and boxes. Brainstorm ways in which you could use these objects.

  12. Representativeness Heuristic • A heuristic in which a situation is judged on the basis of its resemblance to a stereotypical model • May lead us to ignore other relevant information • Tversky and Kahnerman: Thomas is short, slim, and loves poetry. Is he more likely an Ivy League Classics professor or a truck driver?

  13. Availability Heuristic • A heuristic in which a decision is made based on information that is easily retrieved from memory • Information is often vivid, based on past experiences • Frequency of an event’s occurrence is predicted by the ease with which the event is brought to mind • Can be correct or incorrect • Tversky and Kahnerman • The lottery! • Grandma smoked for 50 years and was healthy, so cigarette smoking can’t be that bad!

  14. Confirmation Bias • The tendency to focus on information that supports one’s preconceptions (and ignore the evidence that would disprove them!) • EX: A reporter writes an article on a controversial issue (gun control) and only interviews experts that support his/her opinion • Peter Wason

  15. Overconfidence • The tendency to be more confident than correct when estimating the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments • I feel 98% certain that the population of Switzerland is more than ___ and less than ______. • Only 66% of people were accurate! • Why do we do this?

  16. Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 300 miles? • How long is it? • Is the population of Argentina more or less than 3 million? • What is the population of Argentina?

  17. Is the Mississippi River shorter or longer than 3,000 miles? • How long is it? • Is the population of Argentina more or less than 20 million? • What is the population of Argentina?

  18. Framing • The way an issue is worded or presented • Can influence decisions and judgments • Tversky and Kahnerman

  19. Framing Examples • Condoms have a 95% success rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS • 90% of college students who read only the first statement said condoms were effective • Condoms have a 5% failure rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS • Only 40% said they were effective

  20. Examples (cont) • Ground beef: 20% fat of 80% lean? • Surgeon: 2% death rate or 98% success rate?

  21. Belief Perseverance • Clinging to one’s initial beliefs even after new information discredits the basis on which they were formed • Once you have explained to yourself why candidate Y will be the best commander in chief, you tend to ignore evidence that would undermine this belief

  22. Belief Perseverance Example • Two groups of people with opposing views on capital punishment were shown “new” research findings (one supporting and one refuting the effect of capital punishment on crime) • Each side was more impressed by the study that supported their side • When shown mixed evidence, disagreement actually increases! • How do you fix this? Ask someone to consider the other side

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