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Future: How to be prepared for it?

Future: How to be prepared for it?. Futurist Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Oy. Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: whatsnext@luukku.com. Elina, who?. M.Sc in chemical engineering Futurist Ph.D. Student at HSE Lecturer, consultant

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Future: How to be prepared for it?

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  1. Future:How to be prepared for it? Futurist Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Oy Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: whatsnext@luukku.com

  2. Elina, who? • M.Sc in chemical engineering • Futurist • Ph.D. Student at HSE • Lecturer, consultant • Founder of What’s Next Consulting Oy • Columnist at Talouselämä, Wired UK, Talous Sanomat, Jade, Future Takes (US) • Board member of European Futurists Conference • Blogger: www.future.vuodatus.net

  3. What did not happen in the future: 1910 , France: Paleo future blogi

  4. Harpleys Week, 1908 And what happened… Source: paleofuture blog

  5. Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it? • Be prepared for various futures (anticipation) • Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models • Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders

  6. Anticipating the futures  Being prepared for various futures

  7. Some concepts of the future Wild cards Fad Trend Weak Signals Megatrend duration

  8. Megatrendit are big trends that concern a lot of people

  9. Globalization Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/images/globalization/globalization1.gif

  10. Networking Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/

  11. Teknological development

  12. Climate change

  13. TRENDs Increase of the use of social media Increase of use of alternative energy sources Increase of use of mobile phones Increase of distant working Increase of single households

  14. Wild cards • Fast changes with huge impacts Kuvan lähde: http://www.israelnewsagency.com/cherney911terrorism.jpg

  15. Weak signals Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not

  16. A weak signal test 1. Makes your colleagues to laugh 2. You collagues are opposing it:no way, it will never happen 3. Makes people to wonder 4. No one has heard about it before 5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu) 1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

  17. Source: Perhe- lehti

  18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6z2DWXmRkg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKqyn-gUbY

  19. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd99gyE4jCk Philips Lumalive

  20. Technological weak signals innovations Social weak signals something is done differently, a change in accustomed Different kinds of weak signals

  21. Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them? • Surfing in the Internet • Blogs, blogs and blogs • Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with camera in the other hand and a notebook in the other reporting about weak signals

  22. How to use weak signals

  23. TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fia tool for organizations for collecting futures information

  24. TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi Trendi + erilaiset tilastolliset Analyysit  skenaariot signaalit

  25. Scenarios Now

  26. Scenarios Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Megatrend Megatrend Megatrend

  27. Testing the strategy How will the strategy work in different futures -finding weak points of strategy -thinking of various possibilities for action in the future

  28. Scenarios Strategy

  29. Innovating the futures

  30. “Imagination is more important than knowledge. ” ”For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

  31. Breaking the mental models Tools: -Strategic serendipity -Futures Window

  32. Futures Window References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE

  33. Strategic Serendipity Product/ service Target group theme A trend

  34. Comunnication and discussion with the community

  35. Finnair Departure 2093 www.departure2093.com

  36. Futures work of various organizations • Macroscenarios (Shell, Nokia) • Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson) • Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM) • Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)

  37. Beware of these in you organization’s futures work • Believing too much on your own opinions about the future • Consensus, group think • Being prepared only for one, the most wanted future • Superficiality, too little resources

  38. Thank You! More information: www.future.vuodatus.net and www.whatsnext.fi

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