Higher Education Inequality: Impact on Diversity in the States

1. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems P.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301 As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of Higher Education Inequality in the States Patrick J. Kelly Presented to the NCES/SHEEO Network Conference April 12, 2005

2. Why this Report? Why Now? • ACollision of Several Trends • Increasing value of a college degree • Increasing gaps between Whites and minorities in educational attainment • Shifting demographics – the least-educated populations are growing at the highest rates • Inability of state systems of higher education to serve and retain minorities at nearly the rates of Whites • The emergence of a global economy – the U.S. is falling behind other countries in educational attainment • All at a time when many state policymakers are increasingly concerned about the development of human capital

3. Topics Included in the Presentation • The Changing Demography •  The Nation •  Illustrative States • Differences in Education Attainment and Economic Benefits Between the Race/Ethnic Populations • Projected Implications if Efforts to Level the Playing Field Aren’t Successful

4. Shares of U.S. Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 1980 to 2020 Actual Projected *Based on 1990 Census Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census) and U.S. Population Projections (Based on 2000 Census)

5. Ages 0-17 Ages 18-24 Ages 25-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+ Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020 (in Millions) Note: Projections based on 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. 90% of Hispanic/Latino Population Cities with Populations over 250,000 Counties Where the Majority of Hispanics/Latinos Reside* and Cities with Total Populations over 250,000 * Counties that Comprise 90% of all Hispanics/Latinos. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

7. 90% of African-American Population Cities with Populations over 250,000 Counties Where the Majority of African-Americans Reside* and Cities with Total Populations Over 250,000 * Counties that Comprise 90% of all African-Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

8. Trends in Educational Attainment of U.S. Population Relative to the Most Educated Countries Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

9. Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Note: Data not available for 1980. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)

10. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1980-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)

11. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000 Note: Data not available for 1980. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)

12. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1980-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)

13. Educational Attainment of U.S. Young Workforce (Age 25-34) Indexed to the Most Educated Country, 2000 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino U.S. Index = 0.86 U.S. Index = 0.77 NORWAY CANADA Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

14. Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

15. Percent of Degree-Seeking First-Time Full-Time Freshmen Graduating Within 150% of Program Time by Race/Ethnicity, 2002 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 2002

16. $80,000 $70,000 Graduate/Professional Degree $60,000 $50,000 Bachelor’s Degree $40,000 Some College/Associate Degree $30,000 High School Diploma $20,000 Less than High School $10,000 $0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Mean Earnings by Degree Level Using the Consumer Price Index (Adjusted to 2001 $) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)

18. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age 25-34 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)

19. Difference in Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a College Degree—Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More Hours Per Week, 1999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)

20. California

21. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino CANADA U.S. Index = 0.77 Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—California Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

22. Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—California Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

23. Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—California Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

24. Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof. 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 Distribution of Educational Attainment for Population Age 25-64, 2000 and Projected 2020, California Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

25. Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—California (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

26. Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—California Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

27. South Carolina

28. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—South Carolina CANADA U.S. Index = 0.77 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

29. Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

30. Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

31. Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—South Carolina (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

32. Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

33. Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Kansas Virginia Oregon Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico Rhode Island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census

34. Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Kansas Oregon Virginia Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico Rhode Island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census

35. North Dakota Vermont Maine Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Oregon Virginia Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Arkansas Wyoming California Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000-20 *Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity. Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections

36. Massachusetts South Carolina North Carolina South Dakota United States Pennsylvania Rhode Island New Mexico Connecticut Washington New Jersey Tennessee Mississippi Minnesota Wisconsin Oklahoma New York Nebraska Louisiana Delaware California Wyoming Arkansas Maryland Colorado Michigan Alabama Montana Vermont Missouri Georgia Nevada Arizona Kansas Oregon Virginia Indiana Alaska Florida Illinois Texas Idaho Iowa Utah Ohio Maine Hawaii Kentucky West Virginia North Dakota New Hampshire Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000-20 *Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity. Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections

37. Massachusetts United States North Dakota Rhode Island New Mexico Connecticut Washington New Jersey New York Louisiana California Maryland Colorado Arizona Oregon Hawaii Alaska Illinois Texas Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Maine Florida Indiana Kansas Virginia Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas Delaware Nebraska Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee West Virginia Pennsylvania South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina New Hampshire Projected Change* in Personal Income Per Capita, 2000-20 (In 2000 $) *Projected change in personal income is based on the annual personal income by age group (15 years and older) and race/ethnicity in 2000 and the population projections by age group and race/ethnicity in 2020. Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 population projections

38. $45,000 CT R2 = 0.932 $40,000 NJ MA MD NY $35,000 NH CO MN IL Total Personal Income Per Capita, 2002 CA VA AK WA DE PA WY US RI NV $30,000 WI HI VT FL MI OH NE KS GA OR TX MO IA ME IN NC TN SD ND AZ OK AL SC KY ID LA $25,000 MT NM UT WV AR MS $20,000 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 Tax Capacity – Total Taxable Resources Per Capita, 2002 Personal Income Per Capita Relative to State Total Taxable Resources Per Capita

39. What Can We Do About It? • Race-Based Admissions Aren’t Very Possible • Accountability Measures • Incentives for Institutions to Enroll and Retain More Minorities • Others?

40. A full report and state profiles can be accessed at: www.higheredinfo.org