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Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal , QC, Canada. Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada. International Energy Workshop, June 21 st , 2012. Context and objectives.

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Energy and environment e2g team gerad research center montreal qc canada

Energy and Environment (E2G) Team

GERAD Research Center

Montreal, QC, Canada

Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

International Energy Workshop, June 21st, 2012


Context and objectives

Context and objectives

  • Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO2 emissions is more important than the world average.

  • Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends.

  • Different options are considered

    • Measures to reduce transportation demand

    • Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to promote the deployment of clean vehicles

  • The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically:

    • To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the deployment of clean vehicles;

    • To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.


The integrated markal efom system times

The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)

  • Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models

  • Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA)

  • Linear programming bottom-up energy models

  • Integrated modeling of the entire energy system

  • GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes

  • Prospective analysis on a long term horizon (50-100 yrs)

    • Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units

    • Price-elasticities for end-use demands

  • Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets

  • Main output: Optimal technology selection

  • Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the energy system

  • Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)


Times canada

TIMES-Canada

Regions: 13 provinces and territories

Base year: 2007

Horizon: 2050 (energy)

Horizon: 2100 (climate)

  • Time slices

  • - 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter

  • 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak


Electrification of the canadian road transportation sector a 2050 outlook with times canada

Primary

Energy

End-Use

Technologies

Production / Conversion

Technologies

Demand for

Energy Service

Primary Energy Final Energy Useful Energy

Fossil Fuel Reserves

Conventional & Oil sands

Crude oil, Gas, Coal

Extraction

Oil, Gas, Coal

IND Production

Furnaces, Boilers

Machinery

IND (8) - Tons

Iron & Steel, Cement

Chemicals, Copper

Refineries

CCS

Coke Plants

Biomass Potentials

Crops: Starch, Oilseeds

Greasy residues

Lignocellulosic sources

Dedicated crops

Waste, Biogas, Algae

COM (7) - PJ/m2

Heating, Cooling

Lighting, Appliances

COM Services

Furnaces, AC,

Fluorescents, Etc.

Biomass Plants

Solid: pellet, wood

Liquid: biofuels

Gaseous: biogas

DM 2050

Oil prices (3)

Elasticities

RSD Dwellings

Heat Pumps, Lamps

Freezers, Ranges

RSD (20) - PJ/unit

Heating, Cooling

Lighting, Appliances

International Imports

Crude oil, RPP, Biomass

Gas, Coal, H2

DM 2100

Growth (2)

Elasticities

Hydrogen Plants

TRA Vehicles

Cars, trucks, buses

Trains, Ships, Planes

-Trucks

TRA (16) - Pkm/Tkm

Road: short/long dist.

Rail, Marine, Air

  • Domestic Trades

  • Pipelines

  • Transmission

Uranium & Lithium

Reserves

AGR Process

AGR (1) - PJ

CCS

Power & Heat

Cogeneration Plants

Thermal, Nuclear

Renewables, Biomass

Renewable Potentials

Hydro, Wave, Tidal

Wind, Solar, Geo

Ocean Thermal & Salinity

International Exports

Crude oil, RPP, Biomass

Gas, Coal, H2, LNG

LNG Imports

LNG Regasification

LNG Liquefaction

Scenarios

Energy policies

Climate policies

Carbon sequestration

EOR, Aquifers, Afforestation

GHG Emissions

Combustion, Process

CAC Emissions


Driver growth projections 2007 2050

Driver growth projections, 2007-2050


Final energy consumption 2007 2050 pj

Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)


Electrification of the canadian road transportation sector a 2050 outlook with times canada

Aviation gas

Natural gas

Bio-dimetyl

Biosdiesel

Electricity

Methanol

H2-liquid

H fuel oil

Gasoline

Jet fuels

Ethanol

H2-gas

Diesel

NGLs

  • TRPSA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPSB (M Pkms - Short dist.)

Passenger, Small cars

  • TRPLA (M Pkms - Long dist.)TRPLB (M Pkms - Short dist)

Passenger, Large cars

Passenger, Light trucks

  • TRPT (M Pkms)

Freight, Light trucks

  • TRFT (M Tkms)

  • Freight, Medium trucks

  • TRFM (M Tkms)

  • Freight, Heavy trucks

  • TRFH (M Tkms)

Road

Passenger, Urban buses

  • TRPU (M Pkms)

Passenger, Intercity buses

  • TRPI (M Pkms)

Passenger, School buses

  • TRPC (M Pkms)

Passenger, Motos

  • TRPM (M Pkms)

Passenger, Off road

  • TRPO (M Pkms)

Passenger, Trains

  • TTPA (M Pkms)

Rail

  • Freight, Trains

  • TTFR (M Tkms)

Passenger, Airplanes

  • TAPA (PJ)

Air

  • Freight, Airplanes

  • TAFR (PJ)

Marine

All, Ships

  • TMAL (PJ)


Electrification of the canadian road transportation sector a 2050 outlook with times canada

Bio-dimetyl

Natural gas

Etectricity

Biodiesel

Methanol

H2-liquid

Gasoline

Ethanol

H2-gas

Diesel

NGLs

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline,CAFE Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 3.5 MPG.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 7.0 MPG.

Fossil fuels

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 3.5 MPG.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 7.0 MPG.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas liquids, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas, Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Gasoline Hybrid, Std.

  • TRPSA

  • TRPSB

Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Diesel Hybrid, Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol, Std.

Biofuels

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 10%.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 18%.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Biodiesel, Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Methanol, Std.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Bio Dimethyleter, Std.

Hydrogen

  • Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Gas.

  • Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Liquid.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Gas.

  • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Liquid.


Electrification of the canadian road transportation sector a 2050 outlook with times canada

Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Lead Acid

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Li-Ion

Electric

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, NiMH

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV150, Li-Ion

Electricityfrom the grid

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV200, Li-Ion

  • Passenger, Small cars, BEV300, Li-Ion

TELCBAT1, Battery (Storage)

Plug-in hybrid Gasoline

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH

  • TRPSA

  • TRPSB

  • Charging station, Residential, Level 1.2

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion

  • Charging station, Residential, Level 1.6

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion

  • Charging station, Residential, Level 6.5

Plug-in hybrid Diesel

  • Charging station, Commercial, Level 6.5

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH

  • Charging station, Commercial, Level 30

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH

  • Charging station, Commercial, Level 60

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion

  • Charging station, Public, Level 6.5

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion

  • Charging station, Public, Level 30

  • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion

  • Charging station, Public, Level 60


Level and availability of charging stations

Level and availability of charging stations

Level 1

Level 3 – fast charger

Level 2

Level 1.1

1.2 KW

50 min/kWh

Level 1.2

1.6 KW

40 min/kWh

Level 3.1

30 KW

2.5 min/kWh

Level 3.2

60 KW

1 min/kWh

Level 2

6.5 KW

10 min/kWh


Example small passenger cars

Example: small passenger cars

  • Small BEV – 150 (Lithium-Ion)

    • Capital costs

      • 2012: 36,558 $

      • 2050: 12,328 $

    • Batterycapacity:

      • 2012: 25 kWh

      • 2050: 13 kWh

  • Example: Mitsubishi i-Miev Range: 150 km

  • Battery: 16 kWh

  • Capital cost: 33,000$


Example small passenger cars 18

Example: small passenger cars (18)


Scenarios

Scenarios

  • BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio-economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach.

  • CLIM: GHG reduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories.

  • EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation


End use demand projections 2007 2050

End-use demand projections, 2007-2050


Final energy consumption 2007 2050 pj1

Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)


Ghg emissions 2007 2050 mt co2 eq

GHG emissions, 2007-2050 (Mt CO2-eq)


Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case 2007 2050

Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050


Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases 2007 2050

Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases, 2007-2050


Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case 2007 2050

Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050


Charging stations and batteries 2050

Charging stations and batteries, 2050


Investment in new capacity 2050 gw

Investment in new capacity, 2050 (GW)


Evolution of costs kwh and efficiency 2008 100 for lithium ion batteries

Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries


Evolution of costs kwh for a small all electric car with a 150 km capacity

Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all-electric car with a 150 km capacity


Final energy consumption in the transportation sector 2007 2050 pj

Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2007-2050 (PJ)


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions.

  • In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030).

  • The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy.

  • On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.


Thank you from the e2g team

Thank you from the E2G team

Project leaders

  • Jean-Philippe Waaub

  • Olivier Bahn

  • Richard Loulou

    Project Coordination

  • Kathleen Vaillancourt

    Research consultants

  • AmitKanudia (KanORS-EMR)

  • Maryse Labriet (ENERIS)

Postdoc fellow

Camille Fertel (GCPDRF)

PhD student

Yuri Alcocer

Master students

Erik Frenette

HichemGarbouj

Mathilde Marcy

Yosra Neji

Noushin Reisi

Research project funded by the NSERC of Canada

Research project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU)

Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-Quebec

GCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships


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