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GLOBALISATION AND POPULATION CHANGES: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES

GLOBALISATION AND POPULATION CHANGES: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES. Professor Sir Peter Hall Conference OPEN CITIES Madrid 28 February 2008. The World goes to Town.

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GLOBALISATION AND POPULATION CHANGES: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES

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  1. GLOBALISATIONAND POPULATION CHANGES:AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES Professor Sir Peter Hall Conference OPEN CITIES Madrid 28 February 2008

  2. The World goes to Town “…the rural contribution to human progress seems slight compared with the urban one. Cities' development is synonymous with human development” JOHN GRIMOND The Economist 3 May 2007

  3. The Urban Explosion • UN: 3.2 billion urbanites 2007, nearly 5 billion 2030 • 2030: 60% in cities • Biggest increase: Asia and Africa - poorest, least-urbanised, least able to cope • Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda: 90%+ urbanites in slums • By 2017: nearly 500 cities of 1m+ • 2020: 9 cities 20m+ - Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lagos, Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, São Paulo and Tokyo • Greater Tokyo 2007: 35m, more than Canada

  4. Mega-City-Growth:A Developing-World Phenomenon…

  5. …but slowing down…

  6. Africa, Asia catch up

  7. Growth of the Mega-Cities

  8. Urban Magnets v. Liveable Cities Dharavi Kibera “People prefer urban squalor to rural hopelessness” THE ECONOMIST

  9. The New Urban Magnets • Highly clustered: USA, Western Europe, Gulf • USA, Australia: return to early 20th century – but more varied • Europe, Gulf: new (1980-) • Top places: global cities + Gulf cities • But: some big cities have few immigrants Source: Marie Price and Lisa Benton-ShortGeorge Washington University

  10. Top Immigrant Cities (1m+)A Developed-World Phenomenon • 1m+: 37 cities, 19% total • 9 in North America (8 USA) • 3 in Europe • 4 in Middle East (Saudi Arabia 3) • 2 in Asia • 2 in Australia/ Oceania Source: Marie Price and Lisa Benton-ShortGeorge Washington University

  11. Top Immigrant Cities ctd 100k+ • USA, Europe • USA: Sunbelt cities • Europe: 30 cities; many 10+% • Russia: USSR breakup • Gulf: temporaries (Dubai 80% foreign) • E Asia: low % • Latin America: outflow • Africa: only Johannesburg, Accra Source: Marie Price and Lisa Benton-ShortGeorge Washington University

  12. The immigrants head for the Sunbelt • 8/10 states with biggest Mexican increase in S • But also Mid-West • Spreading out|: Suburbs, Small towns, rural areas • Big Latino enclaves: Dalton GA, Garden City KS, Storm Lake IA, Nashville TN • Economic relocation • D. Massey New Faces in New Places (Russell Sage Foundation 2008)

  13. The Immigrants head for the Suburbs • USA: 100 largest metropolitan areas, 1990-2000: • Immigrant population growth +54.8% • Central Cities +21.7% • Suburbs +63.7% • 68/100: Suburbs grew faster Source: Brian Ray, Migration Policy Institute

  14. Hyper-Diverse Cities • 9.5%+ foreign-born (=average for developed countries) • No country 25%+ • From all regions • Established gateways: New York, London, Toronto: 9m foreign-born • Also: Sydney; Amsterdam; Copenhagen; Washington, DC; Hamburg; Munich; San Francisco; Seattle Source: Marie Price and Lisa Benton-ShortGeorge Washington University

  15. London under Study: 1957-2007

  16. London Plans 1943 2004

  17. London Voices 2007

  18. London Lives: Friends and Neighbours • Generally, good neighbourhood quality – “everyone middle class” • People valued neighbourliness • But a minority troubled – anti-social behaviour • In some areas: “going downhill”: people feared newcomers • Clash of lifestyles • But a contrast: “melting pots” versus “pressured proletarian islands”

  19. London Lives: Fearing Crime, Avoiding Crime • Not a problem for most • But a big problem for some – anti-social behaviour • Newcomers blamed • Yearning for old-style policing • Survival of informal justice - ‘the lads would have a word with him’ • Key individuals play a role

  20. London Lives: Melting the Pot • Complex prejudices • Less racial than “cultural”, especially schools • People want multi-cultural schools • Racism in old white working-class communities (“pressured proletarian islands”) • But unusual: many areas changing as people move

  21. Recipes for Integration • Big diverse cities thrive: New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, Sydney, London, Paris, Amsterdam • But can collapse: pre-World War I Vienna, pre-World War II Warsaw, recently Beirut, Sarajevo, and Srebrenica • Integration depends on "bedrock" public social policies: public education, health care, and income support • But also: needs subtle local policies to integrate… Source: Brian Ray, Migration Policy Institute

  22. Routes to Inclusion Source: Brian Ray, Migration Policy Institute

  23. Immigration: A century-old debate • National identity based on revolutionary solidarity: France, USA • Multiculturalism based on colonial experience (Divide and Rule): UK, Netherlands • Composite nationalities: Spain, Belgium, former Austro-Hungary, former Yugoslavia • All have problems!

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