Global Framework for Climate Services and Regional Climate Outlook Forums

1. Global Framework for Climate Services and Regional Climate Outlook Forums Rupa Kumar Kolli RKolli@wmo.int

2. Global Framework for Climate Services • User Interface Platform - to provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact • Climate Services Information System - to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers • Observations and Monitoring - to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated. • Research, Modelling and Prediction - to assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas • Capacity Building - to support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services.

3. GFCS Implementation Priorities • Capacity building in developing countries • Linking climate service users and providers. • Building national capacity in developing countries. • Strengthening regional climate capabilities. • Building capacity to implement the User Interface Platform in the developing world • Improving climate observations in data sparse areas • Building the capacity of the climate research sector in developing countries

4. WMO Congress Key Decisions on GFCS • Decided that the implementation of the GFCS would be a high priority area during the financial period 2012-2015; • Endorsed the broad thrust of the High-level Taskforce’s Report; • Entrusted the WMO Executive Council with the responsibility of developing proposals, with the involvement of relevant stakeholders including other UN bodies, for consideration by an Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress in 2012 (October) with the participation of all relevant stakeholders including other UN bodies. These proposals to address the: • Draft implementation plan for the GFCS; • Draft Terms of Reference and Rules of Procedure for the Intergovernmental Board and its substructures;   • Decided to establish the GFCS Secretariat within the WMO

5. Climate Service Information System (CSIS) • The CSIS is the component of the GFCS most concerned with the generation and dissemination (data flow) of climate information. • It is the ‘operational centre’ of the GFCS. It will include climate monitoring, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal) and projection (centennial) activities. • HLT report: ‘The Climate Services Information System is the system needed to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers.’

6. Role of CSIS within the GFCS • The CSIS is the means of delivery of climate data and products. • It comprises global, regional and national centres and entities that generate/process climate information (observations and predictions), and the exchange of data and products to agreed standards and protocols. • It must be supported by observation and research programmes (e.g. GCOS, WCRP). With ‘pull through’ facilitated by strong links. • Capacity building initiatives will increase ‘conductivity’ of data flow • Part of the CSIS is in place, but new infrastructure is needed to fullfil the GFCS vision.

7. GFCS activities will address three geographic domains: global, regional and national Domain Nodes Data/product flow and feedback Global monitoring centres Global prediction centres Global Regional Climate Centres Regional Climate Outlook Forums Regional National Meteorological Services National Climate Outlook Forums Other national entities National

8. Global Producing Centres of LRF • In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts • GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output: • a fixed forecast production cycle • a standard set of forecast products • WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts) • A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)

9. Currently Designated GPCs Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html

10. Regional Climate Centres in the Climate Services Information System Global Level Global Producing Centres Global Seasonal Climate Update Regional Climate Centres Regional Climate Outlook Forums Regional Level NMHSs National Climate Outlook Forums National Level Sectoral Users: Agriculture, Water, Energy, etc.

11. Regional Climate Centres (RCC) • WMO Regional Climate Centres are centres of excellence that create regional climate products including long-range forecasts in support of regional and national climate activities and thereby strengthen capacity of WMO Members in a given region to deliver better climate services to national users. • RCC users: NMHSs, other RCCs, etc. • WMO RCC responsibilities shall be regional in nature and shall not duplicate or replace national responsibnilities. • Establishment of RCCs is initiated by WMO Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities. 11

12. RCC Functions • Mandatory Functions: • Operational Activities for LRF • Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring • Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring • Training in the use of operational RCC products and services • Highly Recommended Functions: • Climate prediction and projection • Non-operational data services • Coordination functions • Training and capacity building • Research and development

13. NEACC BCC TCC CIMH ACMAD ICPAC CIIFEN SADC-CSC Designated RCCs Pilot RCCs Pilot RCC Networks Pilot RCCs by 2012 Pilot RCC Networks by 2012 Pilot RCCs in development WMO RCC Status Worldwide

14. Regional Climate Outlook Forums in the Climate Services Information System Global Level Global Producing Centres Global Seasonal Climate Update Regional Climate Centres Regional Climate Outlook Forums Regional Level NMHSs National Climate Outlook Forums National Level Sectoral Users: Agriculture, Water, Energy, etc.

15. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • RCOFs help ensure consistency in access to and interpretation of climate information for groups of countries having similar climatological and socio-economic characteristics. • They facilitate improved understanding and interpretation of available climate prediction information and promote more coherent action among scientists, sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers. • RCOFs bring together experts in various fields, operational climate providers and end users of forecasts in an environment that encourages interaction and learning.

16. RCOF Process (1/3) • RCOFs are essentially meetings of national, regional and global climate experts with a core objective to develop a consensus-based regional climate outlook for the season(s) of critical socio-economic importance, typically in a probabilistic form; • Training programmes on seasonal climate prediction and tailoring to strengthen the capacity of the national and regional climate scientists to provide better inputs to the RCOF process; • Include formal sessions that involve climate scientists, key user groups, decision makers as well as media, for identification of impacts and implications, and the formulation of response strategies; • Outreach sessions involving sector specialists as well as media experts to develop effective communications strategies.

17. RCOF Process (2/3) • Identify the key season(s) and determine the critical time for development of climate outlook for the region in question; • Assemble a group of experts: • Large scale prediction specialists, • Regional and local climate applications and prediction/downscaling specialists, • National climate experts providing country perspectives • Stakeholders representing climate-sensitive sectors; • Review current large scale (global and regional) climate anomalies and the most recent predictions for their evolution; • Review their impacts at local, national and regional levels, and implications for national-scale predictions;

18. Observations Climate patterns ENSO State ENSO forecasts Global forecasts Average climate Assessment (conversation) Background Forecasts Statistical forecasts ENSO Climatology Regional, seasonal Outlook (temp, rain, flows) Products Consensus Process in RCOFs: Mostly Subjective

19. RCOF Process (3/3) • Considering all factors, produce a climate outlook with related output including uncertainty information (e.g., maps showing probabilistic outlooks for temperature and precipitation anomalies along with a consensus statement) that can be applied and fine-tuned by NMHSs to meet national needs; • Discuss applications of the outlook and related climate information to climate-sensitive sectors in the region; consider practical products for development by NMHSs; • Develop strategies to effectively communicate the information to decision-makers in all affected sectors; • Critique the session and its results: • document achieved improvements to the process and any challenges encountered, • Establish steps required to further improve the process for subsequent sessions.

20. NEACOF EASCOF PRESANORD/MedCOF CARICOF SASCOF SEACOF ?! Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide

21. Some RCOF products worldwide

22. Climate Change and RCOFs • RCOFs worldwide have been set up so far with the main focus on seasonal prediction. • However, the same RCOF mechanisms can be effectively expanded to cater to the needs of developing and disseminating regional climate change information products. • Such initiatives are already being taken up by some RCOFs • Regional assessments of observed and projected climate change, including the development of downscaled climate change scenario products for impact assessments, can be included in the product portfolio of RCOFs

23. Concluding Remarks • It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability and change through improved access to climate information and prediction/projection products. • RCOFs have fostered interactions and exchange of information between and among the climate scientists and users of climate information. • A global framework is critical to ensure smooth flow of user-targeted climate information from global to local scales. • WMO is looking forward to GFCS as a major step forward in systematically providing climate information for decision making at various levels of climate-sensitive sectors. • Strong regional ownership and user engagement critical for sustained CARICOF operations.

24. Thank You Dr Rupa Kumar Kolli Chief, World Climate Applications & Services Division Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch, Climate & Water Department World Meteorological Organization 7bis, av. de la Paix, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Phone: +41-22-730-8377; Fax: +41-22-730-8042 Email: RKolli@wmo.int