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European Official Statistics, new initiatives, opportunities and threats

European Official Statistics, new initiatives, opportunities and threats. Walter Radermacher Chief Statistician of the European Union, Director General of Eurostat. Eurostat + European Statistical System (ESS). ESS. National Statistical Authorities of 27 + EEA/EFTA + CH Staff ~50 000

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European Official Statistics, new initiatives, opportunities and threats

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  1. European Official Statistics, new initiatives,opportunities and threats Walter Radermacher Chief Statistician of the European Union, Director General of Eurostat

  2. Eurostat + European Statistical System (ESS) ESS National Statistical Authorities of 27 + EEA/EFTA + CH Staff ~50 000 Budget ~3g€ Regulations ~250 Processes ~300 Eurostat Staff ~900 Budget ~100m€ Walter Radermacher

  3. Walter Radermacher

  4. NRP SCP Walter Radermacher

  5. Walter Radermacher

  6. Walter Radermacher

  7. Initiatives: similar concerns and issues • Overall awareness of the need to complement GDP to measure the progress of societies • Measure well - being of people(importance of subjective well-being) • Better assess inequalities and disparities (intra-generational) • Take into account environmental issues and sustainability (inter-generational) • Most importantly: quality of statistical information Walter Radermacher

  8. Quality of statistics – some quotations • If it matters, measure it. Fraser Institute> (If you measure it, it matters) or (If you don’t measure it, it doesn’t matter) ? • Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.  W. W. Watt • Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that. Homer Simpson • The most important things cannot be measured.W. E. Deming • Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes. Charles Goodhart Walter Radermacher

  9. Quality in statistics: fundamental aspects Consistency with theory Which theory??? Quality = Fitness for Purpose Political relevance Measurability Who decides??? Reliability, timeliness, …??? Walter Radermacher

  10. The Purpose is: Analysis: Empirically based analysis of problems Open access for researchers Benchmarking: preparation of structural reforms by comparison (learning from other countries) Explanation: public debate, media, transparency, participation in decisions The Purpose is: Negotiation: target values, enlargement procedure Performance control: process towards targets, interim flows of money etc. allocation of money: structural funds Inspection: achievement of targets, compliance with rules and contracts consequences when violation of rules, thresholds etc. Gradients of quality of statistics Walter Radermacher

  11. Preconditions for high qualityToolkit for Eurostat after the Greek crisis 2005 • Methodology fixed on EU level √ • Application of methods in national statistical service √ • Code of Practice and Supervisory Board (ESGAB) √ • Quality of input data ø • Robustness of the system against political interference ø • Early warning in case of significant risks ø Credibility crisis in Greece has shown these gaps Walter Radermacher

  12. Consequences • From a quality assessment to a quality assurance framework • From mainly ex post correction systems to ex-ante prevention and detection systems • For example, new audit like powers in the EDP context: • Based on a risk analysis • Identify risks before they materialise, and triggering mitigating actions, including to remedy weaknesses in the institutional setups • Allow Eurostat to review upstream primary data in the public accounts • Stronger surveillance of the Code of Practice necessary, particularly for institutional set-up in MSs Walter Radermacher

  13. Indicators, accounts, target values • Majority of indicators available • In some cases (e.g. poverty) further work is needed; reflection under way for EU2020 and enhanced economic governance / scoreboard of indicators • Close cooperation and early integration of Eurostat is crucial • Eurostat maintains and publishes the indicator systems in a coherent and easy accessible manner • Eurostat can include target values in its publications (e.g. SDI) • Eurostat enables links to accounting systems and basic statistics • Quality assurance to be customised according to purposes Walter Radermacher

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