Rapid climate change
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Rapid Climate Change. Lauren Elmegreen ESP Seminar April 28, 2006. Past Climate: Lake Agassiz. Teller, JT and DW Leverington, 2004. Teller, JT and DW Leverington, 2004. Sea Ice and Abrupt Climate Change. Denton GH et al, 2005. Possible scenario in current conditions….

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Rapid Climate Change

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Rapid climate change

Rapid Climate Change

Lauren Elmegreen

ESP Seminar

April 28, 2006


Past climate lake agassiz

Past Climate: Lake Agassiz

Teller, JT and DW Leverington, 2004


Rapid climate change

Teller, JT and DW Leverington, 2004


Sea ice and abrupt climate change

Sea Ice and Abrupt Climate Change

Denton GH et al, 2005


Possible scenario in current conditions

Possible scenario in current conditions…


Rapid climate change

Future Climate: Models

Schmittner, A., M.Latif and B. Schneider, 2005


Rapid climate change

Latif, M. et al, 2000


Rapid climate change

Latif, M. et al, 2000


Rapid climate change in the media

Rapid climate change in the media

  • “Britain faces big freeze as Gulf Stream loses strength” The Times (Britain), Dec 2005

  • “Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age” New Scientist, Nov 2005

  • “Shifting currents renew fears of freezing” The Montreal Gazette, Dec 2005


Summary

Summary

  • Possible reasons for past rapid climate change

    • Sea ice formation in North Atlantic

    • Lake Agassiz

  • Model predictions for the future

    • Models predict gradual changes in THC without a rapid shutdown

    • Increased salinity may compensate for density decreases in Atlantic Ocean


References

References

  • CCNet http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/CCNet-homepage.htm

  • Denton, G.H., et al, 2005. The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1159-1182.

  • Gregory, J.M., et al, 2005. A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12703.

  • Latif, M. et al, 2000. Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation. Journal of Climate, 13, 1809-1813.

  • Schmittner, A., M. Latif and B. Schneider, 2005. Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L23710.

  • Teller, J.T. and D.W. Leverington, 2004. Glacial Lake Agassiz: A 5000 yr history of change and its relationship to the d18O record of Greenland. GSA Bulletin, 116, 729-742.


Rapid climate change

Gregory JM et al, 2005


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