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Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class)

Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class). Meteo 415 – Fall 2009. The Tuesday Issue. The challenge of hitting the ground at a full speed is primarily one of discipline – Experienced forecasters develop a ‘routine’ that quickly gets them in touch with the current weather pattern

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Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class)

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  1. Getting in Touch(prep for Tuesday’s Class) Meteo 415 – Fall 2009

  2. The Tuesday Issue • The challenge of hitting the ground at a full speed is primarily one of discipline – • Experienced forecasters develop a ‘routine’ that quickly gets them in touch with the current weather pattern • While the methods vary, there are some common elements -

  3. Spinning up • Snellman Funnel

  4. Either Satellite Loop or Upper Air Pattern Spinning up http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

  5. Review Temperature and Precipitation for last 3 days Spinning up http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MAXMIN_NA/naloop8.html

  6. Spinning up • Review Regional Surface Weather Map and estimate what the accompanying satellite picture should look like: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCNE/last.html

  7. Spinning up Consider what features are unexpected and ponder what this may mean for the short range forecasts… http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_NE/recentir.html

  8. Spinning Up • After a regional review – zoom back out and mentally make a forecast of where the disturbances should move to…

  9. Spinning Up Review the special weather statements, storm reports and records from the NWS offices • Review NWS special weather statements and records for past few days… • RECORD EVENT REPORT • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN • 900 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 • ...MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR AUGUST 4TH... • AT THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TOTAL RAINFALL • TODAY WAS 3.81 INCHES...WHICH IS A RECORD FOR THIS DATE. • THE PREVIOUS RECORD 1.52 INCHES SET IN 1903. • THIS RAINFALL TOTAL IS ALSO THE SECOND LARGEST FOR ANY • DAY IN AUGUST AT INDIANAPOLIS. THE RECORD FOR THE MOST • RAIN TO FALL ON ANY AUGUST DAY AT INDIANAPOLIS IS 4.46 • INCHES WHICH OCCURRED ON AUGUST 6 1976. • AT INDIANAPOLIS RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871.

  10. Tackling the Tues Fcst Challenge • Before reviewing the new guidance- • Follow the flow pattern • Recall where important features are located • Look for surprises on the satellite imagery • Assess the amplitude of the pattern • Estimate where disturbances should go • Review previous guidance – for dM/dT • Then look at the myriad of forecasts

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