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Development of Year 2050 Anthropogenic Emissions Inventory in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling. J. Woo, S. He, P. Amar NESCAUM E. Tagaris, K. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. Russell Georgia Institute of Technology. CMAS Conference, Oct, 2006, Chapel Hill, NC.

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Development of Year 2050 Anthropogenic Emissions Inventory in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling

J. Woo, S. He, P. Amar

NESCAUM

E. Tagaris, K. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. Russell

Georgia Institute of Technology

CMAS Conference, Oct, 2006, Chapel Hill, NC


Background and objectives
Background and Objectives in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling

* A part of “Global Climate Change Impacts on Regional Air Quaility over North America” modeling work

- In support of air quality modeling (GISS/MM5 and CMAQ-DDM)

- Did not create new future energy/emissions scenarios

* Develop 2050 EI

- Target year : Year 2050, Annual

- Format : SMOKE-ready

- Sector : Anthropogenic only

- Geographical domain : US/CAN/MEX


Ipcc sres scenarios global co2 so2
IPCC SRES Scenarios in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling(Global CO2 & SO2)

2050

2050

Source : IPCC


Basic strategy future year ei development
Basic Strategy in Support of Future Regional Air Quality ModelingFuture-year EI development

  • Obtain the best available future EI data possible

  • Fill-up gaps from near/certain future to distant/uncertain future

    Example : Use EPA projection until 2020 and use IPCC scenario from 2020-2050


Comparison of existing future ei development approaches
Comparison of existing “future-EI” development approaches

  • RIVM : Netherlands’s National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

  • IMAGE : Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment


Projecting emissions us
Projecting emissions approaches- US -

  • Step #1 : Obtain national projection data available for the near future

    - Use EPA CAIR Modeling EI

    (Point/Area/Nonroad, from Y2001 to Y2020)

    - Use RPO SIP Modeling EI

    (Mobile, from Y2002 to Y2018)

  • Step #2 : Obtain growth data for the distant future and develop cross-reference

    - Use IMAGE model (IPCC SRES, A1B)

    - From Y2020 (Y2018 for mobile activity) to Y2050

    - X-Ref : Sectors/Fuels combination to SCCs

  • Step #3 : Apply growth factors using cross-reference


Projecting emissions canada mexico
Projecting emissions approaches- CANADA/MEXICO -

  • Step #1 : Obtain national projection data available for the near futureor update base year inventory

    - Use Y2020 Environmental Canada Future EI (Area/Mobile)

    - Use Y2002 Point source inventory (NYS DEC) scaled with Y2000 by-state point source summary from Environment Canada

    - Update base year Mexico inventory using Mexico NEI for 6 US-Mexico Border states

  • Step #2 : Obtain simple growth data for the distant future and apply them

    - Use IMAGE model (IPCC SRES, A1B)

    - From Y2020 to Y2050 (CAN, Area/Mobile)

    - From Y2000 to Y2050 (CAN, Point)

    - From Y1999 to Y2050 (MEX, All)


Developing cross references cair and image
Developing cross-references approaches(CAIR and IMAGE)

5159 SCCs


Growth image a1b

Dots : Annual emissions in Tg/Yr approaches

Stacked-Bar : % fraction of emissions by fuels andby sectors

SO2(as S)

Years

Countries

NOx(as N)

Growth (IMAGE – A1B)


Spatial distribution of us emissions so2

Pie Chart : State-level emissions fraction by source types approaches

2001

2020

Bkgrnd Map : State-level annual emissions

2050

Spatial Distribution of US Emissions (SO2)


Spatial distribution of us emissions nox
Spatial Distribution of US Emissions approaches(NOx)

2020

2001

2050


Future emissions canada
Future Emissions approaches(CANADA)

2050

2000


Future emissions mexico
Future Emissions approaches(Mexico)

2050

1999


Summary
Summary approaches

  • US emissions in the future (Y2050) are estimated to decrease by 50%+ for SO2 and NOx

  • Canadian EI shows decrease of gaseous pollutants

  • For Mexico, emissions of NOx, SO2, NH3, and VOC are estimated to increase


On going work acknowledgement
On-going work & Acknowledgement approaches

  • Air quality modeling using CMAQ-DDM for three cases

    - Base year emissions with base year meteorology

    - Base year emissions with future year (2050) meteorology

    - future year (2050) emissions with future year (2050) meteorology

  • Dr. Efthimios Tagaris will present AQM effort tomorrow

  • This study has been financially supported by the US EPA under Grant No. R830960


Near future ei epa cair
Near Future EI approaches(EPA CAIR)

  • Base Case

    - Current controls except CAIR

  • Control Case (Clean Air Interstate Rule)*

    - The same as base case except for EGUs

  • Available for Y2001, Y2010, Y2015, Y2020

  • Based on 1999 NEI

  • Pollutants : NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3, PM10, PM2.5

  • Available in SMOKE/IDA format

* CAIR region : AL, AR, CT, DE, DC, FL,GA, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, SC, TN, TX,VA, WV, WI


Rivm image
RIVM IMAGE approaches

IMAGE : A dynamic integrated assessment modeling framework for global change

WorldScan(economy model), and PHOENIX (population model) feed the basic information on economic and demographic developments for 17 world regions into three linked subsystems (EIS, TES, and AOS*)

* EIS(Energy-Industry System), TES(Terrestrial Environment System), AOS (Atmospheric Ocean System)


Growth image a1b1
Growth (IMAGE – A1B) approaches

CO(as C)

NMVOC


Growth image a1b2
Growth (IMAGE – A1B) approaches

Surrogates for PM species

BC+EC

-Streets et al. (2004)

Agricultural Production

Surrogates for NH3 for OTH sector


Spatial distribution of us emissions nmvoc
Spatial Distribution of US Emissions approaches(NMVOC)

2001

2020

2050


Spatial distribution of us emissions pm2 5
Spatial Distribution of US Emissions approaches(PM2.5)

2001

2020

2050


Mobile source vmt vs emission
Mobile source approaches(VMT vs. Emission)

Three SMOKE/M6 runs(2002/2018/2050) for MANE-VU states

VMT increases (about 1%/year) for the future years (Y2050 = Y2018 yet)

In spite of VMT increase, emission (CO) decrease dramatically because of controls for the future years. Much less effect of controls after 2018.


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