Snap Crackle and Ultimately Pop: The Future for Serials? Colin Steele

1. Snap Crackle and Ultimately Pop: The Future for Serials? Colin Steele

2. Cereals or Serials? • Originally thought of just using the wordplay above the title, but then … • The Kellogg cornflake characters were created in 1932 • The same year when the first meeting of ARL (December 1932) complained about serial price increases !

3. 1933 ARL • According to David Stam in his 1992 article “Plus Ca Change”, ARL noted that Rochester decided to cancel Springer titles in early 1933 • Later in the year, ARL noted a Medical Library Association resolution “that MLA recommends cancellation of serial titles, except for one library, in each of six to ten zones throughout America”

4. Kellogg 1933 • The famous Kellogg characters first appeared in 1933: Snap, Crackle and Pop • Snap is the oldest brother and could be compared to Reed Elsevier? – he likes to lead • Crackle is the middle child, is good hearted and likes playing practical jokes – is this the Public Library of Science? • Pop is the youngest and has a likeable personality … but no one comes to mind?

5. Are Serials Healthy for you? • In July 2004 the UK Advertising watchdog upheld a complaint that Kellogg’s Frosties were unhealthy – “the ASA considered that Frosties had a high sugar content” • Depending on one’s viewpoint, serials can be considered unhealthy – they slow library “financial digestion”

6. Conclusion for Cereals/Serials • What we all want is a “well balanced diet” from serials - “made with research-proven ingredients” (Uncle Toby's) • One has choices with cereals between various brands but it is not easy to substitute one serial exactly for another • Reward systems need to change however so publishers can be “flushed” from success in a regular serial diet • There are no easy serial solutions!

7. 2000 CSIRO: Predictions for 2005 • Future Directions 2000 Seminar: Paul Reekie, http://archive.alia.org.au/sigs/assig/serials.2005/reekie.html • Serials will be online; • Libraries will aim to be 100% online; • Individual paper will rule; • Current players will be stretched; • Customer expectations will grow;

8. CSIRO 2 • New options will challenge traditional; aggregation of online information; • Improved knowledge management; • Small publishers unable to adapt; • Traditional subscriptions disappear; • Publisher takes on library roles (or will it be reverse)

9. Issues for Serials • Constant change for libraries, publishers and serial agents but not for most academics, the key yet most neglected players in publishing debates- how many here? • Development of Institutional Repositories • Electronic replaces print in most academic institutions-Crispin Davis Bookseller 25/2/2005 • Optimising content – federated search strategies in one stop shop environments

10. Serials 2 • “Statistics to a librarian are like a lamp post to a drunk – they are used more for support than for illumination” (NFAIS – Online Usage Statistics Forum, October 2004) • Need integrated statistical reporting and more research on staff and student useage patterns • Open Access developments and “confusion” • Role and function of consortia and the rise and fall of The Big Deal?

11. Cutting The Mustard? • Caroline Michel (Harper Press) March 3, 2005: “Guardian World Book Day Forum” • “Mr Colman said that he made his fortune not from the mustard people ate, but from the mustard that remained on the side of the plate when the meal was finished” • Comparison with most serial articles little read and little used-academic dross?

12. Academic dross • 30% of titles from Big Deal publishers account for 80% of articles downloaded (Gatten and Sanville, D-Lib magazine) : • “Those titles deemed to be of low value might then be discontinued to save the associated costs” • not discontinued but this material can be OA in widest context, • while the top TA (Toll Access) high prestige journals will set the market top prices

13. The Front End of Serials • The front-end of Serials is their acquisition costs • Journal prices continue to rise, “average price increases by publisher ranging from 27% to 94% 2000-2004”, (LISU Study) • Many major firms, eg Reed Elsevier, Thomson, and Wiley, reporting high growth margins in 2004. What crisis in serial publishing?! • Shift away from communication of research to publication for reputation / RAE enhancement

14. Sorting out the Back-end of Serials

15. The “Back End” of Serials • “E-journals are a pain in the ass” (Marilyn Cramer) • UWA Library went from 9,357 e serials in 2003 to 37,339 in 2003 - not untypical in universities • Clearly why we look for “serial solutions” to cover contracts, prices, user access , useage statistics, cost per use, renewals, stats, etc. • Complex patchwork of on web and off web resources for libraries to bring together

16. Role and Function of the Serial Agent • Decline in numbers over the last decade as margins reduce • Impact on serial agents of direct selling platforms by major publishers eg SAGE • Linking of subscriptions services and online research database business • Only authors and users “secure in their roles”, Ian Middleton, EBSCO http://www.researchinformation.info/risepoct04agents.html

17. I Only Wanted to be a Serials Agent!

18. Serial Trends? • Customisation-Ingenta Connect Premium • Seamless searching : • ProQuest and Serial Solutions; • SwetsWise Linker • Ingenta and Infotrieve • IOP and CrossRef’s Forward linking service • Google and CrossRef DOI

19. Serial Trends 2 • Companies compete in one area but collaborate in others eg search platforms and subs services • Continued aggregation / consolidation -Taylor and Francis to Routledge and T and F (STM) • Links from text to e- research databases-Thomson;Infotrieve Life Science Research Center • “The notion of how many serials we have becomes much less important than how we can access them readily and deliver them effectively electronically”(Duane Webster)

20. Too Much Information ? • The Society for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge (UCL Archives) 1832 had as its mission to “impart useful information to all classes of the community” by acting as the intermediary between authors and publishers – • Ultimately did not meet its aims - the Society was said to do no more than to “stuff our mouths with kangaroos” – ie need information filters

21. Google :An Information Knockout?

22. Amazoogle - The Answer?

23. Shifts in Mindshare: John RegazziElsevier Top 3 Online Scientific Search Resources Librarians VS Scientists

24. Role and Function of Learned Societies • Rene Olivieri, Blackwell Publishing “Societies should not be forgotten” (Research Information, Jan-Feb 2005) • Are these likely to become “yesterday’s men” in future financial developments-Elsevier initiatives in Australia • Yet three quarters of the top 200 and two thirds of the top 500 ISI ranked titles owned by societies or non-profit organisations

25. The Deconstruction of Books • E- slicing of books - rentals of texts and e-course pack developments • Advanced e- technologies challenge publishers and librarians eg varied content downloads • Rise of PODS and serial “reconstructions” • Oblinger and CLIR studies-the library as place • Consortial monograph offerings in serial type searches and useages • Impact of Google print and Amazon within a book

26. Publishers Cost of Open Access • Is this becoming a dog’s breakfast? • Publisher prices range from $US 500 to $3,500 ?- future sub confusions? • Academics find it difficult to understand or even know about the “green and gold” paths, so how will they keep track of author fees? • Is differential OA pricing a clever ploy by publishers?

27. Open Access and Confused Economics • A very confused situation whether in universities or publishers • Most academics unaware of OA but sympathetic in their reader mode - CIBER studies • Academics loathe to use research grants to support libraries or publication if they can get extra staff with the money • New examinations of public good input / output mechanisms on campus needed

28. Campus Budget Changes? • For example, establish the hidden costs across the campus in terms of infrastructure and time of the academic community in editorial board activities, refereeing, etc for the major international STM publishers- has this ever been done nationally or locally? • Sally Morris article Learned Publishing”The True Costs of Scholarly Journal Publishing” April 2005 - summaries within serial framework

29. Publishing Futures • Development of digital “layered publications” • “Digital media titans”(Gartner) will increasingly concentrate power at the commercial end as • The publishing minnows are either gobbled up or float free unnoticed in the OA seas • What unexpected new distribution / search models?

30. To Conclude some Graphics • Keith Courtney asked me not to be entirely serious so herewith some illustrations of the present rather turbulent serial seas • In the end, its “let’s get political” (not physical)?

31. Need to Cuddle up to Politicians?

32. Lets Get Political • LET’S GET POLITICAL (sung to the tune of Olivia Newton John’s Physical !) “I’m saying all the things that I know you’ll likeMaking good your open access pathsI handled you just rightI took you to an intimate repositoryThen to a suggestive archiveNow there’s nothing left to talk aboutUnless it’s horizontally”

33. Let’s Get Political 2 • “Let’s get political, politicalI wanna get political, let’s get politicalLet me hear your publications talkYour publications talk, let me hear your publications talk”

34. Don’t Mess Around with Publishing Models? “Quote from John Profumo, 1963, UK Secretary of State for War, when he had to resign because he did ……” Cited by Arie Jongejan when at Elsevier (ICOLC Oct 2004)

35. Multinational Borg Publishers

36. Fighting Over The Academic Body

37. Guedon and Mabe Battle over the History of Publishing

38. A Well Known Publishing and Bookselling Family? • In the next slide, these are the words: “Wait till my father hears about this – you can’t arrest someone for overacting” Michael Douglas

39. All I Did Was Try and Sell The Firm!

40. The Only Future for Consortia Deals?

41. Publishers and Open Access?

42. One for Public Library of Science

43. Open Access. A Bit Skeletal However in Contrast to

44. Eating the STM Profits

45. But I Thought We Would Win in the End. Stevan Harnad ?

46. Future of the Serial?

47. Serials Don’t Go Pop?

48. In the end :”It’s not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change” Charles Darwin(Thanks to Gerald Coppin, Nature Publishing)