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Homework 6 results

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Homework 6 results

3.a.Tobacco production

Y = -.0606 * 2010 + 122.28

Y = 0.353 billion pounds

Pro:

- Strong R-squared
- Near-term forecast
Con:

- Imperfections in fit to trendline
- Possible shift in trend in last four years

Y = -.4397 * 2010 + 902.23

Y = 18.4%

Y = -.4397 * 1953 + 902.23

Y = 43.5%

Pro:

- Strong fit, R-squared
Con:

- Many years between 1953 and 1983, so many possible significant economic and social changes

100 = -.4397 * X + 902.23

100-902.23 = -.4397 * X

-802.23/-.4397 = X

1824 = X

Projections of the percentage of the population

who will be obese in 40 years

is quite dubious

if not totally bogus.

It makes exactly the same point

about projections far into the future

as we considered

with regard to the number of motor vehicles and consumption of coal