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Homework 6 results. 1.a Y = 150X + 200 Y = 200 + 150X Six minutes of flight . . . Y = 150*6 + 200 Y = 1100. 1.b. Car rental Y = .06X + 29 Y = 29 + .06X Rental for 200 miles . . . Y = .06 * 200 + 29 Y = $41.00.

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1 a y 150x 200 y 200 150x six minutes of flight y 150 6 200 y 1100
1.a Y = 150X + 200Y = 200 + 150XSix minutes of flight . . . Y = 150*6 + 200Y = 1100


1 b car rental y 06x 29 y 29 06x rental for 200 miles y 06 200 29 y 41 00
1.b. Car rental Y = .06X + 29 Y = 29 + .06XRental for 200 miles . . . Y = .06 * 200 + 29 Y = $41.00


2 a net loss of 20 loss of 40 for membership plus 20 savings on 100 spent
2.a. Net loss of $20.   Loss of $40 for membership plus $20 savings on $100 spent. 




2.d.: The function is linear because the change in Y is constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.


2 e amount spent x amount saved y y 2x 40
2.e. constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved. Amount spent = X Amount saved = Y Y = .2X - 40


3 a tobacco production

3.a. Tobacco production constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.


3 b predicted 2012 production equation method
3.b. Predicted 2012 production, equation method constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.

Y = -.0606 * 2010 + 122.28

Y = 0.353 billion pounds


3 b predicted 2012 production trendline extension method
3.b. constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved. Predicted 2012 production, trendline extension method


3 c confidence in prediction
3.c. Confidence in prediction constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.


3 c confidence in prediction1
3.c. Confidence in prediction constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.

Pro:

  • Strong R-squared

  • Near-term forecast

    Con:

  • Imperfections in fit to trendline

  • Possible shift in trend in last four years


4 a percentage smokers
4.a. Percentage smokers constant across all values of X. For every $100 spent, exactly $20 saved.


4 b prediction of percentage smoking in 2010 equation method
4.b. Prediction of percentage smoking in 2010, equation method

Y = -.4397 * 2010 + 902.23

Y = 18.4%



4 d prediction of percentage smokers in 1953
4.d. Prediction of percentage smokers in 1953 extension method

Y = -.4397 * 1953 + 902.23

Y = 43.5%



4 d confidence in prediction1
4.d Confidence extension methodin prediction

Pro:

  • Strong fit, R-squared

    Con:

  • Many years between 1953 and 1983, so many possible significant economic and social changes


4 e prediction when 100 percent smokers
4.e. Prediction when 100 percent smokers extension method

100 = -.4397 * X + 902.23

100-902.23 = -.4397 * X

-802.23/-.4397 = X

1824 = X


5 a main point of article
5.a Main point of article extension method

Projections of the percentage of the population

who will be obese in 40 years

is quite dubious

if not totally bogus. 


5 b relevance to linear models
5.b Relevance to linear models extension method

It makes exactly the same point

about projections far into the future

as we considered

with regard to the number of motor vehicles and  consumption of coal


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