World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward
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World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012“Looking Back to Look Forward”

“A realistic, clear-eyed look at risk management for display flying is a sobering exercise. Emotionally, we all LOVE absolute extreme edge of the envelope flying....right up until the revulsion of impact. Airshow accident statistics are all that remain!” (Maj Gen Scott Hammond, US ANG)

Des Barker

4 February 2013


Scope

Scope

  • Role & Function of Airshow Executive Safety Management

  • Display Physiological Environment

  • A Statistical Analysis - “The Inconvenient Truth”

  • Overview of Airshow Relate Accidents 2012!

Chicago Air Show

21 August 2005


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

WHAT IS THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF AIRSHOW CONTROLLING BODIES?

Accountable For ?

Airshow Safety

  • Responsible For ?

  • Visioning – setting safety objectives.

  • Imposition and implementation of regulations through the specific country’s regulatory authorities.

  • Instilling “SAFETY IS AN ATTITUDE” across the entire airshow population spectrum.

  • Fostering of good relations with airshow organisations.


Executive safety management s responsibility

EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY

  • To ensure that the

  • implementation of policies,

  • procedures

  • and equipment utilisation,

  • is adequately addressed and that

  • personnel are trained within their areas of expertise.

  • Develop and Manage Airshow Safety Strategic Objectives.

  • Develop and Manage an Airshow Safety Management System.

  • Compliance with Military and Chicago Convention Obligations.

  • Monitor regulatory compliance through ICAS/EAC/ASSA appointed officers.

  • Practice safety oversight and regulation enforcement through regulatory bodies.

  • Ensure Zero Tolerance of poor individual and/or Corporate performance.

French Connection Mudry CAP 10

27 May 2000


The hostile low level environment

The Hostile Low Level Environment

  • God did not design man to fly!

  • 2 – Dimensional Creatures!

  • Human Physiology Challenges

    • Closing Rates 1500 kms/hr

    • Extremely High Rates of Descent 300 KTAS vertical

    • Normal Acceleration +9g/-6g

    • Roll Rates >360deg/sec

  • Human Physiology Weaknesses

    • Relatively Low reaction times

    • Inability to make quick, consistent and repeatable decisions

    • Inability to make good decisions repeatedly under pressure


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

AIM

To review the worldwide airshow accident and incident safety statistics for 2012.


Definition of airshow accidents

Definition of Airshow Accidents

Longman Family Dictionary

in the context of airshows –

“exhibition” = “a public showing”

and therefore makes all public aviation events, be they static or flying, an exhibition of some sort.

In context, this includes rehearsals for:

  • Airshows

  • Air races

  • Flypasts

  • Wingwalkers

  • Barnstorming/Crazy Flying


Significant indicators 2012

Significant Indicators 2012

  • Good News:

    • For the first time in history?? No spectators injured or killed.

    • No media ‘feeding frenzy’ – 2011 Reno/Duxford/Red Arrows

    • 17 vs 105 killed/injured in 2011.

  • Bad News:

    • MACHINE failures continue for 2nd year - disproportionate number of vintage aircraft mechanical failures!

    • 3 FIT Roll accidents.

    • Red Arrows pilot reassigned’.

    • Significant increase in airshow accidents vs display practice.

    • Budget constraints for military display teams.


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Structural Failure

Flight Into Terrain

There are no new accidents – Just new pilots making old accidents (Hoover)!

Mechanical Failure

Air Races


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis!

Lies!

Damned Lies!

Statistics!!!

Benjamin Disraeli -Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843-1911).


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

The Inconvenient Truth!

“A Few Good Men".

with Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Bacon. (1991)

Nicholson: "You want answers?!!"

Cruise: "I want the truth!!"

Nicholson:"You can't HANDLE

the truth!!"


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

10 Year Average = 27.6

Airshow Accidents 10 Previous Years

Sample Size = 276


Statistical analysis 2012

Statistical Analysis 2012

Lviv, Ukraine; Su-27

(85/156)

*Reno Air Race P-51 (11/66)

*Osprey (10)

*Tiger Moth (39)


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Fatalities (1908 to 2012)

1029 vs 1429 = 2458

Sample Size = 2458


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

Airshow Accident Casualties 2012 = 17


Statistical analysis 20121

Statistical Analysis 2012

Vintage Aircraft = 51%

Sample Size = 28

Airshow Accident/Incidents Aircraft Categories


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

2012

2011

Sample Size = 34

Sample Size = 26

Airshow Accident/incident Causal Factors


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

Judgement Error = 42%

Non Human Error = 50%

Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Human Judgement Error

Sample Size = 26


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

Sample Size = 26

Sample Size = 34

2012

2011

We do not “train like we fly and fly like we train!!!!

Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Display vs Practice


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

2012

2011

Sample Size = 12

Sample Size = 12

Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis - Countries


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Statistical Analysis 2012

2011

2012

Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis – Military vs Civilian


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Accident Data Base 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Accident Data Base 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

“But remember please, the law by which we live,We are not built to comprehend a lie,We can neither love, nor pity, nor forgive, If you make a slip in handling us, you die”Rudyard Kipling“Secret of the Machines”

The Law of Machines


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Fairey Firefly

California, USA

03 June 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure –

Undercarriage


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure - Engine

De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird,

Duxford, UK

1 July 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure - Engine

Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout,

Edmonton, Canada

4 August 2012


Mechanical human error

Mechanical: Human Error

Korean Aircraft Industries T-T50 B

Oshkosh, USA

28 July 2011


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Mechanical Failure: Engine?

Hongdu K-8W Karakorum

Caracas, Venezuela

27 November 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

LOC?

IAR 99 Hawk 718

Craiova, Romania

23 August 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Flight Into Terrain – Barrel Roll

Goodyear F2G Super Corsair,

North Dakota, USA

7 September 2012


Flight into terrain barrel roll

Flight Into Terrain Barrel Roll

Yak 52

Alabama, USA

16 September 2012


Flight into terrain snap rolls

Flight Into Terrain Snap Rolls

Zlin 226

Germany,

30 April 2012


Flight into terrain split s

Flight Into Terrain – Split S

0V-10 Bronco,

Cotswold, UK

10 July 2012


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Flight Into Terrain(G-LOC)?

‘Crossover Break’

Aerovodochody L-39 Albatros

Iowa, USA

1 September 2012


Loss of control snap rolls

Loss of Control Snap Rolls

SIAI Marchetti AS 202 Bravo

Bandung, Indonesia

20 August 2011


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

2012

EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT SCORECARD

  • 26 Airshow Accidents & Incidents

  • 28 Aircraft

  • 13 Pilots Killed

  • 2 Pilots Injured

  • 1 Pax Killed

  • 1 Pax Injured

  • TOTAL = 17 vs 105 killed/injured!!!

FAIL!!!


World airshow accident incident overview 2012 looking back to look forward

Questions that need Answers!

  • What is it that we want from an airshow!

  • Do we need to regulate more strictly?

  • Where does one draw the line between regulation and anindividual’s choice?

  • Are Safety Officers exercising sufficiently strict oversight!

  • Is our attitude one of total dedication to safety above personal ego and spectator’s adrenalin rush?

  • The pressures of weather versus spectator entertainment?

  • Minimum distance of spectator enclosure from showline?

  • Is ICAS, EAC and ASSA making determined and effective efforts to change the culture of the airshow population group?

  • Are Airshow Councils providing the necessary safety strategies?

  • Is adequate Risk Management applied to air event organisation?


Thank you

Thank You!

  • “I have learned that carelessness and overconfidence are usually far more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks.”

  • (Wilbur Wright 1900 in a letter to his father)

Frecce Tricolori USAF Ramstein 1988


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