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“Extreme” Definition: very great Synonyms: . ..consummate, great, greatest, high, highest, intense, maximal, maximum, severe, sovereign, supreme, top, ultimate... Definition: unreasonable

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extreme hardware

“Extreme”

Definition: very great

Synonyms: ...consummate, great, greatest, high, highest, intense, maximal, maximum, severe, sovereign, supreme, top, ultimate...

Definition: unreasonable

Synonyms: ...desperate, dire, downright, drastic, egregious, exaggerated, exceptional, excessive, extraordinary, extravagant, fabulous, fanatical...

Extreme Hardware

Chairman’s Note: This document was prepared by the“extreme hardware” working group and was received by theentire workshop in plenary session without modification.

moore s law

...2 years...

...18 months...

...clock speed...

...transistor...

...performance...

...17%...

...50%...

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year”

http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/cpu/moore.ars

Moore\'s Law
interesting quotes

No one has taken reversible computing seriously, no significant funding at all.

Reversible SFQ....interesting combination.

What do the nano-technologies do to the programming model?

Should legacy code be considered?

Successor technologies will likely be evolutionary rather than revolutionary technologies that can use CMOS litho, processes, or investments.

Interesting quotes
the future

Protected by non-traditional

technologies (nano-scale, CNT, SFQ, MRAM)

The Future

Quantum

Computing

Reversible technology required

End of ITRS roadmap

Device thermal limit

(~70kT)

2005

2010

2017

>2020

results

No issues with CMOS for next 5 years, billion dollar market creates huge momentum and justification to invest in R&D.

Between 5 and 12 years out, there is some risk in CMOS providing exponential performance gains, but this risk is well mitigated by several classes of promising technologies; nano-scale lithography and architectures, cabon-nano-tube memory, MRAM, and SFQ.

Between 15 and 20 years out, device thermal limit creates a floor for classic device architecture, the only known long term solutions past this floor are Reversible logic and Quantum Computing.

Results
results1

Group agreed to do two things:

1) Create and complete a matrix of characteristics and metrics for each technology.

2) Architect a toy requirement and implement a solution in each technology, eg a \'contest\'.

Results
technology characteristics and metrics

Application space

Technical Risk

Performance (measured by operations/Joule-sec), for each of:

processor

interconnect

memory

OR

compute ability

Market feasibility

Investment needed to prototype

Scalability

Number of Parties Developing

Programming model

Technology characteristics and metrics
contest need more benign word

Need a requirement, not an architecture.

Needs to represent some of the metrics in the previous matrix

Possibilities discussed:

Factoring

Simple ALU

Contest (need more benign word)
other thoughts

We need to advertise that the future does not hold \'A\' replacement for the transistor, and that future solutions will be heterogeneous.

Signs of a heterogeneous solution are already occurring for interconnect and memory solutions.

Assuming 50% increase in performance every 2-years, we would need an additional 10^3 performance increase to get to Zetta-Flops by 2020.

Other thoughts
other thoughts1

Technological walls may not be the only problem for US HPC vendors. In 10 years, the capitol investment costs needed will force the reduction of US fabs: Intel, IBM, Freescale, TI, LSI Logic

Other thoughts
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