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Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis & Forecasts. WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY 14-15 2003 RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP2 J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT. WP2 - Results Belgium. TABLE OF CONTENTS

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WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY 14-15 2003

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Workshop agir the hague february 14 15 2003

Federal Planning Bureau

Economic Analysis &

Forecasts

WORKSHOP AGIR

THE HAGUE

FEBRUARY 14-15 2003

RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP2

J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT


Wp2 results belgium

WP2 - Results Belgium

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • Demand for (use of ) health care

  • Long term care at home / in institutions

  • Supply of health care

  • Household composition / family situation

  • Labour market developments


Hospital admissions

Hospital admissions

Average number of admissions, 1998, by age and gender

  • Highest at age 0, then decrease, to increase again with age

  • Women are less frequently admitted except at age 15-34


Hospital admissions 2

Hospital admissions (2)

Average number of admissions – 1991 – 1998, by gender / age

  • Increase between 1991-’98 for younger and older age groups

  • Decrease between 1991-’98 between age 1 and 45


Length of hospital stay

Length of hospital stay

Average length of hospital stay by age group and gender, 1998

  • Positive relation with age : increases as people get older

  • Higher for women than for men, especially in oldest age group


Length of hospital stay 2

Length of hospital stay (2)

Average length of hospital stay by age group / gender, 1991-98

 Decrease between 1991-1998, men/women, all age groups


Volume of hospital stay

Volume of hospital stay

Volume of hospital stay, 1998, by gender and age


Volume of hospital stay 2

Volume of hospital stay (2)

Volume of hospital stay, by age and gender, 1991 – 1998

 Slight decrease between 1991 and 1998, all ages


Contacts with doctor

Contacts with doctor

Average number of contacts a year, by age group and gender, 2001 (National Health Survey)

  • Number of contacts increases with age

  • Higher for women than for men (except youngest age group)


Contacts with doctor 2

Contacts with doctor (2)

Contacts with doctor by gender and age, 1997- 2001 (NHS)

  • Again positive relation with age

  • For men and women, more contacts in 2001 than in 1997, EXCEPT: women in oldest age group (!!)


Long term care at home

Long term care at home

% of population using LTC at home by age group, 1998 – 2001

  • Clear positive relation with age : increases as people get older

  • Little evolution in time, only small increase for oldest group


Long term care at home 2

Long term care at home (2)

% of population using LTC at home, 2001, by category

  • Positive relation with age, % increases as people get older

  • % lower for higher degrees of dependence (cfr. Institutions)


Long term care at home 3

Long term care at home (3)

% of population using home-delivered meals, age / gender, 2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • No clear difference between men and women

  • Note: similar data for 1997 (no increase or decrease in use)


Long term care at home 4

Long term care at home (4)

% of population receiving help in household, 2001, age/gender

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • Higher for women than for men, in all age groups


Ltc in institutions 2

LTC in institutions (2)

% of population living in ROB-RVT by age group, 1996-2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • Increase between 1996-2001, especially at older ages


Ltc in institutions 3

LTC in institutions (3)

% of population in ROB-RVT, by age group and category, 2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • In older age groups, categories with higher dependence become more important


Forecasting exercise

Forecasting exercise

  • Use of long term care at home 2030-2050

     Increase of 124%: 277.432 people in 2050 compared to 123.566 in 2001


Forecasting exercise 2

Forecasting exercise (2)

  • Use of LTC in institutions, 2030-2050

     Increase of 166%: 317.979 people in 2050 compared to 119.254 in 2001


Supply of formal health care

Supply of formal health care

Density of care givers (per 1000 inhabitants)

 Slight increase in density for all, especially nurses


Supply of formal health care 2

Supply of formal health care (2)

Density of care givers in ROB-RVT (per 1000 people living in institutions)


Supply of formal health care 4

Supply of formal health care (4)

Number of hospital beds for LTC per 1000 inhabitants aged 65+

 Decrease in density of hospital beds for LTC


Supply of formal health care 5

Supply of formal health care (5)

Density of acknowledged beds in ROB-RVT per 1000 inhabitants older than 65

  • Overall slight increase in density

  • Decrease for ROB, increase for RVT


Average household size

Average household size

Average household size 1900 – 1999

 Decrease from 4.3 in 1900 to 2.4 in 1999


Number of hh members

Number of HH members

Evolution in share of households 1930-2001

  • Increase in proportion HH with 1 / 2 members

  • Proportion of bigger families decreases

32

31

25

25

21

16

17

14

11

7


Composition by marital status

Composition by marital status

% of men by marital status, 1965 – 2001

  • Increased proportion single and divorced

  • Smaller proportion married or widowed


Composition by marital status 3

Composition by marital status (3)

Marital status by age group, MEN, 2001


Composition by marital status 4

Composition by marital status (4)

Marital status by age group, WOMEN, 2001


Composition by relation with others

Composition by relation with others

Total population, 1961 – 2001

  • Increase in single with or without children

  • Decrease in married with or without children

  • Similar situation for men and women separately

46

34

30

30

24

17

12

7


Elderly people

Elderly people

% of HH having elderly person living with them

 Decrease between 1970 and 2001


Elderly people 2

Elderly people (2)

Living situation of elderly people in 1991


Participation rates

Participation rates

Participation rates, MEN, by age group, 1947-2050

  • Reversed U shape curve

  • Decrease between 1947 and 2050, especially youngest and oldest age groups


Participation rates 2

Participation rates (2)

Participation rates, WOMEN, by age group, 1947-2050

  • Shape curve has changed from flat to reverse U-shape

  • Increase between 1947 and 2050 except youngest and oldest age groups


Weekly working hours

Weekly working hours

Average weekly working hours, by gender, 1983-2000

  • Higher for men (38 in 2000) than women (30)

  • Decrease for women, rather stable for men


Weekly working hours 2

Weekly working hours (2)

% of MEN working certain hours a week, 1983-2000


Weekly working hours 3

Weekly working hours (3)

% of WOMEN working certain hours a week, 1983-2000

  • Increase in lowest groups (part time employment!)

  • Decrease in highest age groups


Part time employment

Part time employment

PT employment in % of total employment, by gender

 Spectacular increase for women (from 5 to 30%)


Part time employment 2

Part time employment (2)

% PT employment by gender and age group, 1999

  • Much higher for women than for men (all ages)

  • For men, higher in lower and higher age groups


Reasons for pt employment

Reasons for PT employment

Reasons for PT employment,by gender, 2000, % of PT workers giving this as reason


Conclusions

CONCLUSIONS

  • Demand for health care increases with age

  • Demand for LTC increases with age

  • Decrease in supply of formal health care

  • Supply of informal health care?

    - household composition

    - labour market evolutions


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