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Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis & Forecasts. WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY 14-15 2003 RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP2 J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT. WP2 - Results Belgium. TABLE OF CONTENTS

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WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY 14-15 2003

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Federal Planning Bureau

Economic Analysis &

Forecasts

WORKSHOP AGIR

THE HAGUE

FEBRUARY 14-15 2003

RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP2

J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT


WP2 - Results Belgium

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • Demand for (use of ) health care

  • Long term care at home / in institutions

  • Supply of health care

  • Household composition / family situation

  • Labour market developments


Hospital admissions

Average number of admissions, 1998, by age and gender

  • Highest at age 0, then decrease, to increase again with age

  • Women are less frequently admitted except at age 15-34


Hospital admissions (2)

Average number of admissions – 1991 – 1998, by gender / age

  • Increase between 1991-’98 for younger and older age groups

  • Decrease between 1991-’98 between age 1 and 45


Length of hospital stay

Average length of hospital stay by age group and gender, 1998

  • Positive relation with age : increases as people get older

  • Higher for women than for men, especially in oldest age group


Length of hospital stay (2)

Average length of hospital stay by age group / gender, 1991-98

 Decrease between 1991-1998, men/women, all age groups


Volume of hospital stay

Volume of hospital stay, 1998, by gender and age


Volume of hospital stay (2)

Volume of hospital stay, by age and gender, 1991 – 1998

 Slight decrease between 1991 and 1998, all ages


Contacts with doctor

Average number of contacts a year, by age group and gender, 2001 (National Health Survey)

  • Number of contacts increases with age

  • Higher for women than for men (except youngest age group)


Contacts with doctor (2)

Contacts with doctor by gender and age, 1997- 2001 (NHS)

  • Again positive relation with age

  • For men and women, more contacts in 2001 than in 1997, EXCEPT: women in oldest age group (!!)


Long term care at home

% of population using LTC at home by age group, 1998 – 2001

  • Clear positive relation with age : increases as people get older

  • Little evolution in time, only small increase for oldest group


Long term care at home (2)

% of population using LTC at home, 2001, by category

  • Positive relation with age, % increases as people get older

  • % lower for higher degrees of dependence (cfr. Institutions)


Long term care at home (3)

% of population using home-delivered meals, age / gender, 2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • No clear difference between men and women

  • Note: similar data for 1997 (no increase or decrease in use)


Long term care at home (4)

% of population receiving help in household, 2001, age/gender

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • Higher for women than for men, in all age groups


LTC in institutions (2)

% of population living in ROB-RVT by age group, 1996-2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • Increase between 1996-2001, especially at older ages


LTC in institutions (3)

% of population in ROB-RVT, by age group and category, 2001

  • Positive relation with age; % increases as people get older

  • In older age groups, categories with higher dependence become more important


Forecasting exercise

  • Use of long term care at home 2030-2050

     Increase of 124%: 277.432 people in 2050 compared to 123.566 in 2001


Forecasting exercise (2)

  • Use of LTC in institutions, 2030-2050

     Increase of 166%: 317.979 people in 2050 compared to 119.254 in 2001


Supply of formal health care

Density of care givers (per 1000 inhabitants)

 Slight increase in density for all, especially nurses


Supply of formal health care (2)

Density of care givers in ROB-RVT (per 1000 people living in institutions)


Supply of formal health care (4)

Number of hospital beds for LTC per 1000 inhabitants aged 65+

 Decrease in density of hospital beds for LTC


Supply of formal health care (5)

Density of acknowledged beds in ROB-RVT per 1000 inhabitants older than 65

  • Overall slight increase in density

  • Decrease for ROB, increase for RVT


Average household size

Average household size 1900 – 1999

 Decrease from 4.3 in 1900 to 2.4 in 1999


Number of HH members

Evolution in share of households 1930-2001

  • Increase in proportion HH with 1 / 2 members

  • Proportion of bigger families decreases

32

31

25

25

21

16

17

14

11

7


Composition by marital status

% of men by marital status, 1965 – 2001

  • Increased proportion single and divorced

  • Smaller proportion married or widowed


Composition by marital status (3)

Marital status by age group, MEN, 2001


Composition by marital status (4)

Marital status by age group, WOMEN, 2001


Composition by relation with others

Total population, 1961 – 2001

  • Increase in single with or without children

  • Decrease in married with or without children

  • Similar situation for men and women separately

46

34

30

30

24

17

12

7


Elderly people

% of HH having elderly person living with them

 Decrease between 1970 and 2001


Elderly people (2)

Living situation of elderly people in 1991


Participation rates

Participation rates, MEN, by age group, 1947-2050

  • Reversed U shape curve

  • Decrease between 1947 and 2050, especially youngest and oldest age groups


Participation rates (2)

Participation rates, WOMEN, by age group, 1947-2050

  • Shape curve has changed from flat to reverse U-shape

  • Increase between 1947 and 2050 except youngest and oldest age groups


Weekly working hours

Average weekly working hours, by gender, 1983-2000

  • Higher for men (38 in 2000) than women (30)

  • Decrease for women, rather stable for men


Weekly working hours (2)

% of MEN working certain hours a week, 1983-2000


Weekly working hours (3)

% of WOMEN working certain hours a week, 1983-2000

  • Increase in lowest groups (part time employment!)

  • Decrease in highest age groups


Part time employment

PT employment in % of total employment, by gender

 Spectacular increase for women (from 5 to 30%)


Part time employment (2)

% PT employment by gender and age group, 1999

  • Much higher for women than for men (all ages)

  • For men, higher in lower and higher age groups


Reasons for PT employment

Reasons for PT employment,by gender, 2000, % of PT workers giving this as reason


CONCLUSIONS

  • Demand for health care increases with age

  • Demand for LTC increases with age

  • Decrease in supply of formal health care

  • Supply of informal health care?

    - household composition

    - labour market evolutions


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