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NOAA’s National Weather Service. 2012-2013 Winter Season Outlook 2012 NCEMA Fall Conference. Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC Tony Sturey, WCM NWS Greer, SC Phil Hysell, WCM NWS Blacksburg, VA. NOAA’s National Weather Service. Presentation Outline. Introduction (Tony)

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NOAA’s National Weather Service

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NOAA’s National Weather Service

2012-2013 Winter Season Outlook

2012 NCEMA Fall Conference

Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC

Tony Sturey, WCM NWS Greer, SC

Phil Hysell, WCM NWS Blacksburg, VA

NOAA’s National Weather Service


Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Winter Storm Prediction:Challenges

Nick

Tony

Phil

*

*


Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Geographic Influences

Due to NC’s proximity to the Appalachian Mountains, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf Stream, and Gulf of Mexico, various weather patterns can result in winter weather across the state.


Geographical Features

H

Highest Mtns in

Eastern US

Labrador

Current

Gulf Stream


The Primary Challenge:Depth of Cold Air

3 typical scenarios


One Organized Low


Offshore Track


Inland Track


Complex PatternMultiple Lows Separated by CADJan 7, 1996

Corridors of Predominant P-Type


Winter Weather Climatology

  • Winter weather season typically runs between December and March.

  • Predominate snow events are most common over the northwest, with least occurrences along the coast.

  • Freezing rain is most often predominate over the Northern Piedmont Damming Region (due to CAD).

  • Sleet is rarely the predominate winter storm precipitation type (it is typically found with transition zones of precipitation).

National Weather Service


North Carolina’s Annual

Average Snowfall

National Weather Service


North Carolina’s Number of Days with Snow and Sleet Accumulation

National Weather Service


North Carolina’s Number of Events per Year with Sleet and Freezing Rain

National Weather Service


A Typical Strong Winter Storm

with Cold Air Damming

National Weather Service


Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Winter Weather Resources


Snowfall Criteria in NC


Snowfall Criteria in NC


Snowfall Criteria in NC


www.weather.gov


weather.gov


weather.gov


weather.gov


weather.gov/blacksburg


weather.gov

How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence?


weather.gov

How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence?

Jan 16, 2008 Forecast Discussion


Winter Storm Example

3-7 Days in Advance of The Event


Winter Storm Example

3-7 Days in Advance of The Event


www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov


www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov


www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov


www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov


www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Winter Storm Example

Winter Storm Arrives

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/


Winter Storm Example

Snowfall/Ice Reports


Winter Storm Example

http://srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/


NWSChathttps://nwschat.weather.gov

  • Provides EM, media, SKYWARN and other partners to exchange information with NWS forecasters anytime.

  • Already integrated within NWS operations.

  • Can run on any PC as well mobile devices such as a Blackberry or Droid.


Links provided to all products seconds within issuance including warnings


Weather on the Go!

  • NC-First mobile app

  • http://mobile.weather.gov/

  • https://inws.wrh.noaa.gov


https://inws.wrh.noaa.gov


NOAA Weather Radio

Why Not Have A Tornado Siren In Your Home, Work, or Car?

  • Receive weather information 24 hours a day.

  • Radio will sound a tone to alert you when a watch/warning has been issued.

  • Countless times, lives have been saved by NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio

NOAA’s National Weather Service


Thank You!


Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Outlook for 2012-13 Winter

The National Weather Service uses the latest technology and does exhaustive research to determine long-range forecast conditions


What’s a few inches of snow to you?


Changes in the Wintertime Atmospheric Flow Related to El Nino

  • More west-to-east flow of jet stream winds than normal across the United States

  • An eastward extension of the jet stream winds from the International Date Line to the southwest United States

  • A southward shift of the storm track from the northern to the southern part of the United States

  • This shift results in an exceptionally stormy winter and increased precipitation across California and the southern U.S. and less stormy conditions across the northern part of the country.


The Upshot

  • Overall a greater number of opportunities for low pressure systems tracking nearby (Southeast Conus) compared to last winter.

  • Will we cash in? The amount of precipitation we receive will be modulated by whether the southern low pressure systems move across the deep south and out to sea, or make a turn up the East Coast or through the Carolinas!

  • If we cash in, what will be the outcome? Temperatures are the wildcard in this pattern! Usually cold air is “locked north” because of the jet stream configuration. Therefore our analysis would be for a greater potential for messy mixtures, based on the long range temperature probabilities. However weather history has shown us that the entire spectrum of precipitation types are in play during El Nino Episodes: 1969-70; 1976-77; 2004-2005.

  • Note, it is not uncommon to jump temporarily out of these types of regimes for a week or two, and then revert back into the overall El Nino Episode.


Questions?

Contact information:

  • Nick Petro, WCM Raleigh

    • [email protected]

  • Phil Hysell, WCM Blacksburg

    • [email protected]

  • Tony Sturey, WCM Greenville/Spartanburg

    • [email protected]


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