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NOAA’s National Weather Service. 2012-2013 Winter Season Outlook 2012 NCEMA Fall Conference. Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC Tony Sturey, WCM NWS Greer, SC Phil Hysell, WCM NWS Blacksburg, VA. NOAA’s National Weather Service. Presentation Outline. Introduction (Tony)

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Noaa s national weather service
NOAA’s National Weather Service

2012-2013 Winter Season Outlook

2012 NCEMA Fall Conference

Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC

Tony Sturey, WCM NWS Greer, SC

Phil Hysell, WCM NWS Blacksburg, VA

NOAA’s National Weather Service


Presentation outline
Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Presentation outline1
Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Winter storm prediction challenges
Winter Storm Prediction:Challenges

Nick

Tony

Phil

*

*


Climate prediction center http www cpc ncep noaa gov
Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Presentation outline2
Presentation Outline

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Geographic influences
Geographic Influences

Due to NC’s proximity to the Appalachian Mountains, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf Stream, and Gulf of Mexico, various weather patterns can result in winter weather across the state.


Geographical features
Geographical Features

H

Highest Mtns in

Eastern US

Labrador

Current

Gulf Stream


The primary challenge depth of cold air
The Primary Challenge:Depth of Cold Air

3 typical scenarios





Complex patternmultiple lows separated by cad jan 7 1996
Complex PatternMultiple Lows Separated by CADJan 7, 1996

Corridors of Predominant P-Type


Noaa s national weather service

Winter Weather Climatology

  • Winter weather season typically runs between December and March.

  • Predominate snow events are most common over the northwest, with least occurrences along the coast.

  • Freezing rain is most often predominate over the Northern Piedmont Damming Region (due to CAD).

  • Sleet is rarely the predominate winter storm precipitation type (it is typically found with transition zones of precipitation).

National Weather Service


Noaa s national weather service

North Carolina’s Annual

Average Snowfall

National Weather Service


Noaa s national weather service

North Carolina’s Number of Days with Snow and Sleet Accumulation

National Weather Service


Noaa s national weather service

North Carolina’s Number of Events per Year with Sleet and Freezing Rain

National Weather Service


Noaa s national weather service

A Typical Strong Winter Storm Freezing Rain

with Cold Air Damming

National Weather Service


Presentation outline3
Presentation Outline Freezing Rain

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)






Www weather gov
www.weather.gov Freezing Rain


Weather gov
weather.gov Freezing Rain


Weather gov1
weather.gov Freezing Rain


Weather gov2
weather.gov Freezing Rain


Weather gov blacksburg
weather.gov/blacksburg Freezing Rain


Weather gov3
weather.gov Freezing Rain

How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence?


Weather gov4
weather.gov Freezing Rain

How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence?

Jan 16, 2008 Forecast Discussion


Winter storm example
Winter Storm Example Freezing Rain

3-7 Days in Advance of The Event


Winter storm example1
Winter Storm Example Freezing Rain

3-7 Days in Advance of The Event


Www hpc ncep noaa gov
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov Freezing Rain


Www hpc ncep noaa gov1
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov Freezing Rain


Www hpc ncep noaa gov2
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov Freezing Rain


Www hpc ncep noaa gov3
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov Freezing Rain


Www hpc ncep noaa gov4
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov Freezing Rain


Winter storm example2
Winter Storm Example Freezing Rain

Winter Storm Arrives

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/


Winter storm example3
Winter Storm Example Freezing Rain

Snowfall/Ice Reports


Winter storm example4
Winter Storm Example Freezing Rain

http://srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/


Nwschat https nwschat weather gov
NWSChat Freezing Rainhttps://nwschat.weather.gov

  • Provides EM, media, SKYWARN and other partners to exchange information with NWS forecasters anytime.

  • Already integrated within NWS operations.

  • Can run on any PC as well mobile devices such as a Blackberry or Droid.


Links provided to all products seconds within issuance including warnings
Links provided to all products Freezing Rainseconds within issuance including warnings


Weather on the go
Weather on the Go! Freezing Rain

  • NC-First mobile app

  • http://mobile.weather.gov/

  • https://inws.wrh.noaa.gov



Noaa weather radio
NOAA Weather Radio Freezing Rain

Why Not Have A Tornado Siren In Your Home, Work, or Car?

  • Receive weather information 24 hours a day.

  • Radio will sound a tone to alert you when a watch/warning has been issued.

  • Countless times, lives have been saved by NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio

NOAA’s National Weather Service


Thank you
Thank You! Freezing Rain


Presentation outline4
Presentation Outline Freezing Rain

  • Introduction (Tony)

  • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick)

  • Winter season products and services (Phil)

  • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)


Outlook for 2012 13 winter
Outlook for 2012-13 Winter Freezing Rain

The National Weather Service uses the latest technology and does exhaustive research to determine long-range forecast conditions



Changes in the wintertime atmospheric flow related to el nino
Changes in the Wintertime Atmospheric Flow Related to El Nino

  • More west-to-east flow of jet stream winds than normal across the United States

  • An eastward extension of the jet stream winds from the International Date Line to the southwest United States

  • A southward shift of the storm track from the northern to the southern part of the United States

  • This shift results in an exceptionally stormy winter and increased precipitation across California and the southern U.S. and less stormy conditions across the northern part of the country.


The upshot
The Upshot Nino

  • Overall a greater number of opportunities for low pressure systems tracking nearby (Southeast Conus) compared to last winter.

  • Will we cash in? The amount of precipitation we receive will be modulated by whether the southern low pressure systems move across the deep south and out to sea, or make a turn up the East Coast or through the Carolinas!

  • If we cash in, what will be the outcome? Temperatures are the wildcard in this pattern! Usually cold air is “locked north” because of the jet stream configuration. Therefore our analysis would be for a greater potential for messy mixtures, based on the long range temperature probabilities. However weather history has shown us that the entire spectrum of precipitation types are in play during El Nino Episodes: 1969-70; 1976-77; 2004-2005.

  • Note, it is not uncommon to jump temporarily out of these types of regimes for a week or two, and then revert back into the overall El Nino Episode.


Questions
Questions? Nino

Contact information:

  • Nick Petro, WCM Raleigh

    • Nicholas.Petro@noaa.gov

  • Phil Hysell, WCM Blacksburg

    • Phil.Hysell@noaa.gov

  • Tony Sturey, WCM Greenville/Spartanburg

    • Anthony.Sturey@noaa.gov


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