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NO.8 通货膨胀与失业. 通货膨胀概述 预期与通货膨胀 菲利普斯曲线 失业. 通货膨胀的一般描述. 通货膨胀含义及衡量 含义:价格水平普遍持续的上涨。注意三个要点: 普遍和持续 价格上涨可以是公开的,也可以是隐蔽的 不包括正常的价格上涨 衡量: CPI 、批发物价指数和 GDP 折算数. 25. 价格变动率( % ). 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. -5. 1978. 1980. 1982. 1984. 1986. 1988. 1990. 1992. 1994. 1996. 1998. 2000. 年份.

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NO.8 通货膨胀与失业

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No 8

NO.8


No 8

  • CPIGDP


No 8

25

%

20

15

10

5

0

-5

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

80


No 8

1)


No 8

  • 2)


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3)


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4)


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No 8

1)

2)

3)


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No 8


No 8

  • 1)


No 8

  • 2)


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  • 3)


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  • 1)


No 8

  • 2)


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  • 3)


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  • 1)


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  • 2)


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  • 3)


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No 8

1)

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No 8

2)


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3)


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4)


No 8

5)


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No 8


No 8


No 8

P

Ms

100

100

50

200

Md

0

M*

M


No 8

P

Ms1

Ms2

100

100

50

200

25

400

Md

0

M1

M2

M


No 8

  • quantity theory of money


No 8

  • equation of exchange

  • VMGDP

  • V = GDP M

  • GDPQP

  • V = PQ / M


No 8

  • P = VM / Q

  • modern monetarism


No 8


No 8

  • AD1AD2E1E2Y1Y2P1P2

P

AS

E2

P2

AD2

E1

P1

AD1

0

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Y


No 8

  • AS1Y1P1AS2Y2P2

AS2

AS1

(P)

P2

P1

AD

0

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Y1

Y


Structural inflation

Structural Inflation

  • Structure of Wage


Structural inflation1

Structural Inflation

Structure of Price


Structural inflation2

Structural Inflation

  • 1)AB

    2)AB

    3)BA


Structural inflation3

Structural Inflation

  • 1)AB50%

    2)A


No 8


No 8

SAS

LAS

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y

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SAS:


No 8

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No 8

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3.5

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No 8


No 8

  • (static expectations)

  • (adaptive expectations)


No 8


No 8

  • F1961(19617)


No 8

  • (rational expectations)


No 8


No 8

    • 1.


No 8

.

  • 1.

  • 2.

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No 8

  • 4.

  • 5.


  • No 8

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    ELAS

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    No 8

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    No 8

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    No 8

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    No 8

    o

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    No 8

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    No 8


    No 8

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    No 8

    &3.

    • Phillips1958Phillips

    • Phillips

    • Phillips


    No 8


    No 8

    • 2. :


    No 8


    Phillips

    Phillips

    • 70Phillips


    Phillips1

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    • 70Phillips


    Phillips2

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    • Phillips

    • u*Phillips

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    No 8

    .

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    No 8

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    No 8


    No 8

    LRPC1

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    b

    a

    5

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    PC0

    O

    U(%)

    6

    8


    No 8


    4 unemployment

    &4. Unemployment


    No 8


    No 8


    No 8


    No 8

    • ILO


    No 8


    No 8


    No 8


    No 8

    • ILO


    No 8


    No 8

    • ILO


    No 8

    • ILO

      15


    No 8

    • = /


    No 8

    (1)

    ()

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    No 8

    (2)

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    No 8

    (3)

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    No 8

    • ILO

      ILO


    No 8

    • 1615


    No 8

    • 10


    No 8

    • 1

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      3

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    No 8

    • 1

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      3

      4

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    No 8

    • 6040


    No 8

    • 16


    No 8


    No 8

    • 1


    No 8

    • ILO


    No 8

    • 04%


    No 8


    No 8

    1.

    2.

    3.


    No 8

    4.

    5.


    No 8

    • 1.

      2.


    No 8

    3.


    No 8

    • Arthur Okun


    No 8

    • Okun


    No 8

    • 50dual economy


    No 8


    No 8


    No 8


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