The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering

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# The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Please come and make a bet on the game listed above. Whether you have any sports betting experience or not, just try to make one bet. It’s all for fun, so give it a shot!. The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering. Ronald W. Yates Patrick L. Villa College of Southern Nevada.

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Presentation Transcript

Please come and make a bet on the game listed above. Whether you have any sports betting experience or not, just try to make one bet. It’s all for fun, so give it a shot!

Ronald W. Yates

Patrick L. Villa

### 52.380952381 %

What is a

Square?

Expected Values of Parlay Bets

With n bets in a parlay, the probability of winning is (1/2)n, and the table is based upon a standard \$10 wager.

The money line of each proposition is substituted into

[(win amount/ bet amount) + 1], and the resulting

terms are then multiplied together.

Example: a 3-team parlay of the following propositions.

### Post Time

Expected Value of a Straight Bet:

(1/2)(+\$10) + (1/2)(-\$11) = - \$0.50

In order to break even, must win 11 out of every 21 bets

(11/21)(+\$10) + (10/21)(-\$11) = \$ 0

Winning 11 out of every 21 bets = 52.38… %

Makes winning sound easy… doesn’t it?

Round Robin Parlays

Let\'s say you have 4 bets that you like, call them A, B, C, and D, and you want to bet every possible parlay with these 4 bets.

Using combinations, we can find that this includes a total of 11 bets:

Betting Parlays

Let\'s say you do extremely well, and pick the winner in 4 out of 7 games (which is a 57% success rate).

We will call the bets A, B, C, D, 1, 2, and 3, with the letters being winners and the numbers being losers.

Using a \$10 wager: