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Sea Level & Ice Sheets Concern about the Future of Inhabited Coastlines. Presented by Beth Caissie. (thanks to Ken Miller, Rutgers, for many of his slides). Sources: Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399, 429-436 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Sea Level & Ice Sheets

Concern about the Future of Inhabited Coastlines

Presented by

Beth Caissie

(thanks to Ken Miller, Rutgers, for many of his slides)

slide2

Sources: Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399, 429-436 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

slide3

Sea level history over the past 450,000 years

Source: Labeyrie et al (2003) In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future, Springer.

slide4

Last interglacial

Global Sea Level

TODAY

Full Glacial

Lambeck et al., 2002, based on tropical & subtropical records

slide6

Ice from the Ocean makes ice sheets, so sea level drops

  • When Ice sheets melt, sea level goes up.
slide7

Antarctica

West

East

slide8

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?

  • Melting Ice Caps and Glaciers:
  • Melting land ice adds to ocean volume (sea ice does not)
  • Greenland is thinning today, but didn’t disappear during the Last Interglacial

.

  • IPCC2001: near 0
  • Cazenave & Nerem (2004): >0.15 mm/yr
  • Sterns & Hamilton (2007): 0.57 mm/y
muir glacier

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?

Muir Glacier
  • Glacial Retreat
  • Most glaciers world-wide are in retreat
  • Alpine glaciers contribute 0.6 mm/yr to sea level rise
  • Why are some advancing?
    • Increased snow

1941, William Field

2004, Bruce Molnia

From the Glacier photograph collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology.

http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/repeat_photography.html

slide10

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?

  • Thermal Expansion:
  • ocean has gained heat
  • Warmer water less dense global 20th century warming ~0.6°C
  • 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise
slide11

Should I Sell My Shore House?

Brazil

Atlantic City NJ

observations tide gauge and satellite altimetry data
Observations(Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Data)
  • Overall 10-20cm rise in 20th century
  • 20th century average rate of sea level rise: 1.7±0.3mm/yr
  • 1950-2000 1.8±0.3mm/yr
  • 1993-2003 accelerated to 3.1±0.7 mm/yr
sea level forecast ipcc 2007
Sea-Level Forecast: IPCC 2007

40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100

1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2007 error: 20-60 cm (does not include ice sheet melting)

2007

http://www.realclimate.org/images/sealevel_1.jpg

recent global sea level rise estimates
Recent Global Sea Level Rise Estimates

Slide from Rahmstorf web site

Data:

Church and White (2006)

Scenarios 2100:

50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007)

55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)

Scenarios 2200:

150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)

Scenarios 2300:

250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on

Global Change, WBGU, 2006)

WBGU

Delta Comm.

Rahmstorf

Data

Best Estimate = 80 cm of SL Rise by 2100, 1 m is not out of the question

slide15

Long Beach Island, NJ

Human stabilized

400 m

Natural movement

Courtesy N. Psuty

slide16

(from Day After Tomorrow)

Sea Level Rise – like this?

No !

Gradual sea level rise and storm events causing this?

Highly likely!

http://www.learnnc.org/lp/editions/cede_smsandvol/323

slide17

The Nile River Delta

1 m SL Rise would impact

6.1 Million people

4500 km2 cropland

slide19

Boston

http://www.geo.umass.edu/stategeologist/frame_maps.htm

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