Riding the Migratory Flyways: Space Based Ornithology

1. Riding the Migratory Flyways: Space Based Ornithology Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory James.A.Smith@nasa.gov Jill Deppe, NASA ORAU Post Doc Konrad Wessels, GEST Post Doc- (CSIR South Africa) (Brian Small)

2. Avian Influenza

4. Outline • Background (Refresh Your Memory) • -- Biophysical models • -- Version 2 • Application • --Avian Influenza • Testing and Tuning Models • New Mission Concepts

5. Spherical Bird (Helmuth) Use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite measurements of climate and habitat

6. Avian Energetics Metabolism Climate space TU TL Find all {Ta,S} that satisfy TL < Tb < TU

7. From Climate to Geographic Space July -- North America

8. Rhythm of the Seasons Solar Radiation Air Temperature

9. Bird Migration Example Myiarchus nasaii

10. Migration-- Avian Energetics Part II Daily Time Budget = time migrating, time resting, and time feeding Daily Energy Budget = time budget, habitat quality, ingestion and climatic factors Fixed stop-overs (dynamic programming solution) (Farmer and Wiens)

11. (Molly Brown) But 1000s of potential stopovers!

12. Individual-based, spatially explicit Migration routes, timing, energy budgets (Watson) (Photo: Thomas W. Johansen) Avian Energetics -- Part III

14. KASPER THORUP Zoological Museum, University of Copenhagen Dept Animal Ecology, Lund University

15. 3D Wind Fields -- Trajectory Analysis Pennycuick

16. Simulate 200 birds Aug-Sept (Erni)

17. Application -- Avian Influenza

18. North America “Here be dragons”

19. Fundamental Question If you find birds with H5N1, what do you do then, Dorothy?

20. “Bird dust”

21. Turkey Farm Distributions Turkey Farms, change 97 to 02

22. Avian Influenza Migration Pathways -- North America Probability contours • Integrate the best features of all models • Use real-time dynamic weather forecasts • Use satellite observations of the temporal dynamics of the landscape “Motorized Bird Plumes”

23. Use output from forecasting data assimilation models Wind and precipitation drive migration decisions

24. Habitat Suitability Maps (Graham) ISFS? (Rotenberry, et al.)

25. Numerical Weather Prediction Models BIRD MIGRATION MODEL FRAMEWORK Bird Migration Model Habitat Suitability Model • Test model • Arrival / passage dates • Arrival condition • En-route densities • Telemetry Semipalmated Plover

26. Testing and Tuning Models Partnering with USFWS and USGS • Bird Banding Data • Survey Data at Stopovers • Telemetry Data • DNA • Radar Ornithology • New Concepts

27. Satellite telemetry data--Pintails USGS

28. Existing systems miss most birds/mammals Large enough to carry ARGOS-type satellite tag Proportion of species Body size (log g)

29. www.icarusinitiative.org

30. “Phase A Study”

32. Summary Theory and models available Have the Need -- Applications (Strong Letters and In-Kind Support) There are some data for tuning and validation We need a space mission

33. “Space-Based Biophysical Ornithology”