1 / 26

Preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region

Preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region. David E. Atkinson International Arctic Research Center / Atmospheric Sciences Department University of Alaska Fairbanks. AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005.

vinson
Download Presentation

Preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region • David E. Atkinson • International Arctic Research Center / Atmospheric Sciences Department • University of Alaska Fairbanks AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005

  2. To begin with: > Understand the impact of waves > Understand the importance of storms - to drive waves - to drive surges Examine storm climatology results AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005

  3. AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 Atlantic track is prominent at circum-polar scale David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  4. Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project ACD zones, weather station locations AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  5. 3 Storm counts 2 4 1 5 7 6 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  6. Trends in storm counts - no strong trend David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  7. Other influences on coastal erosion • In frozen regions must consider • Sea ice • Permafrost AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005

  8. Melt season increasing Reduced sea ice cover Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000 (model initialized with observations) AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  9. Results from western Kara Sea coast (S. Ogorodov, Moscow State University) - influence of wave energy and temperature in permafrost coastal zones AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005

  10. Wave energy climatologies - impetus > Wave energy principle forcing agent > Much of the circum-polar (AK) coastal zone susceptible to erosion > Problem is not easy – various parameters that must be considered - shallow zones - sea ice * ice on/off dates controls wave access * position of ice offshore controls fetch (presence of floating ice also modifies wave energy) > Coastal process models require wave energy input (I.e., and not wind) > Engineering issues AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  11. Scope and Approach Desire: develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy • Driving winds – gridded is desirable - North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km) - AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios > Generate climatological wave fields - monthly totals - annual totals - period means and trends (1979-2003) Provide to coastal dymanics researchers, but can also assess contribution of ice AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  12. Scope and Approach Wave energy calculation - 1st order linear (Airy) approximation > Coastal Engineering Manual and Technical Reference for the Automated Coastal Engineering System (USArmy Corps of Engineers) > suitable for most applications > Represents a starting point only AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  13. Scope and Approach Wind forcing: - NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, 925 mb to overcome speed problems - direction limited to 180° (I.e. water side) Direct forcing approach, not distribution based AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  14. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 0.7

  15. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 0.7

  16. Scope and Approach Depth - simply specified at 10m - represents generic shelf zone Sea ice - NSIDC extent plots used - based on ice plots: > coastal region divided into 12 sectors by longitude > sectors assigned a binary ice/no ice class - turned energy on/off for that month AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  17. NSIDC Sea Ice extent from passive microwave

  18. 3 2 4 5 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project ACD zones, weather station locations AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  19. Limitations No depth variation Winds do not catch all events (spatial resolution) Ice sector approximation Ice content (binary approach) coarse Spatial resoution coarse Orientation of wind energy wrt coastline crude (hemisphere approach) AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  20. 1979 total ICE No ICE David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  21. 1998 total ICE No ICE David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  22. 1979 – 2003 mean ICE No ICE David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  23. 1979 – 2003 trends ICE No ICE David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  24. Next steps/improvements > Increase wind forcing resolution > Introduce local coastal orientation > Variable depth > Introduce variable ice concentrations, drop sector approach > Comparisons with existing observed/modeled information (e.g. Ogorodov for Pechora Sea) AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  25. Conclusions from storm and wave energy work: > Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear > Ice (marine and terrestiral) must be explicitly considered for erosion work > Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach > Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005 David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

  26. Fin

More Related