Housing Pathways as Highways, Country Lanes and Culs-de-sac

1. Housing Pathways as Highways, Country Lanes and Culs-de-sac John Minnery Robin Zakharov

2. Overview • Introduction: housing careers, housing pathways • The research • Pathways as highways • Pathways as country lanes • Pathways as culs-de-sac • But wait… • Implications

3. 1. Housing careers and pathways • Households change over time, so their needs change. A simple idea, but… • Nature of household histories is changing: divorce, melding, housing expectations, demography, labour market changes • Different expectations can be seen in comparison with 1920s US:

4. “It is one of the outstanding advantages of modern civilization that people can now find a type of home especially adapted to that stage of life in which they happen to be. These various types are illustrated in the history of many an American business man. His childhood is passed in a single-family dwelling on the farm or in a small city, high-school and college days in dormitories; early business life in a rooming-house or club; the honeymoon period in an apartment; and then for child-rearing and more ample home life, he resorts to the suburban house and garden and the advantages of a definite social and community status. After the children have grown up and gone away, he and his wife may return again to the simpler and more easily managed life of the apartment or residential hotel” (Clarence Perry, 1929).

5. Housing careers or housing pathways? • Careers: implies deliberate choice and conscious improvement • Pathways: may be deliberate, but implies less autonomy • “Pathways” seems the more appropriate from our research

6. 2. The research • Funded by Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, through National Research Venture 2: 21st Century Housing Careers • Completed in late 2006 • Qualitative, and so indicative rather than predictive

7. 25-34 year olds, and 55-64 year olds in Launceston, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Latrobe Valley and Adelaide • Focus groups and in-depth interviews • Plus a two-round Delphi study involving housing experts in government, academia and private sector

8. Focus for this presentation is on what happened after people left the family home, and the respondents’ current housing

9. The metaphor • The research identified three main kinds of pathway: • Highways: heavily used pathways that many people followed • Country lanes: twisting pathways that might not lead where you think • Culs-de-sac: pathways to dead ends

10. 3. Highways Common influences were changing preferences and aspirations Preference for detached dwellings Potential barriers across the highway from lack of effective resources – e.g. renters without housing equity, first home buyers People staying at home longer, delaying partnering, delaying having children, “adultescence”

11. Older group was downsizing, but property rather than house Additional space for adult children, grandchildren, hobbies, businesses Importance of location “I’ve moved trillions of times”

12. 4. Country lanes Partnering as an influence on household formation, and impacts of divorce, separation, relationship breakdowns Uncertain pathways after leaving family home – pathway can be chaotic: “I left home at 18 to get married but that was far too young. Then we bought a house… and sold that house when we divorced” Uncertainty about future housing goals (expect in a very general sense), even for retirement But, “everything changes when you have a child”

13. What of retrenchments, redundancies? The uncertainty of private rental Possible impacts of changes in public rental policies and “fitting” housing to household Domestic violence – can leave people without resources of support

14. 5. Culs-de-sac Those who can be excluded from the labour market (e.g. people with disabilities) or subject to structural inequities (e.g. indigenous people) People who “fall out” of home ownership (e.g. through divorce) Parents’ home as a refuge in times of crisis So what of people who leave home because of abuse or troubled relationships – lack of a refuge or support

15. 6. Other pathways Metaphor can go only so far Changing expectations – people now want it all, all at once, when they start their housing pathway This applies to houses as well as to fittings, furniture, landscaping, etc Confirmed by both older and younger groups, and older group can remember high interest rates – fear of financial vulnerability of their children’s generation

16. 7. Implications • Remember: qualitative not quantitative research • Indication, not predictions

17. Pathways are changing but from complexity to a new complexity • If Perry’s 1929 assumptions are inappropriate now, what other inappropriate assumptions are we making?

18. Empty nesters • “Empty nesters” as a case in point • Maybe smaller lots but not necessarily smaller houses • Include new relationships with children (and grand-children) • Hobbies, business, etc • Need housing flexibility

19. Relationships • Relationships (forming, breaking, re-forming) are critical • A bit hard to predict, though • So how do we model future housing?

20. Location • Location important as well as housing form and tenure • Requirements will change as housing pathway traversed • Accessibility and transport are as critical as housing itself

21. And finally… • People interviewed did not rationally calculate and pursue their future housing pathways, and even if they did the pathways can lead in unexpected directions • Housing flexibility is critical (location, form, tenure, adaptability) • And remember the “have nots” as well as the “haves”.

22. Thank you