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TEAC25 2003 Marginal Emissions Analysis. Scott Hodgdon ISO New England January 19, 2005. What is the MEA?.

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Teac25 2003 marginal emissions analysis

TEAC252003 Marginal Emissions Analysis

Scott Hodgdon

ISO New England

January 19, 2005


What is the mea
What is the MEA?

  • The Marginal Emissions Analysis (MEA) is an analysis of the impact that Demand Side Management (DSM) programs have had on NEPOOL Aggregate SO2, NOX, and CO2 generating unit emission

  • The MEA is developed by ISO-NE for New England Power Pool’s (NEPOOL) Environmental Planning Committee (EPC)


Mea background
MEA Background

  • Originally done to support applications for obtaining Massachusetts NOX Emission Reduction Credits (ERCs) resulting from impacts from Demand Side Management (DSM) programs

  • Such applications were filed under the Mass. ERC banking & trading program effective January 1, 1994, for inventoried sources of NOX, VOCs and CO2

  • NEPOOL MEA has been performed annually since 1993


Mea data and model overview
MEA Data and Model Overview

Simulation Model

Output Results

Input Data

Hourly Loads

Generator Data

Fuel Prices

Unit MWh production

as output from program

used to calculate indices

reported in MEA

IREMM*

* Inter Regional Electric Market Model used for the 2003 MEA. In previous years, Henwood Energy Services Inc.’s Prosym Model was used.


Input data
Input Data

  • Discrete generator seasonal capacity ratings

  • Some generation modeled as limited energy units:

    • All hydro facilities

  • Discrete generator maintenance & forced outages

  • Actual historical hourly loads for NEPOOL system (1 Control Area)

    • Pumped storage pumping loads included in hourly loads


Input data cont
Input Data (Cont’)

  • All dispatchable units operated in accordance to system economics (merit order)

  • 2003 New England historical fuel prices (Source: EIA)

  • Unit specific 2003 generating unit emission rates:

    • As reported to US EPA Acid Rain Division (Scorecard captures about 75% of emissions)

    • US EPA’s E-Grid 2002 Ver 2.0 or typical default rates


Modeling
Modeling

  • Used IREMM model for chronological simulation of New England’s energy market

  • IREMM models short-run marginal cost methodology (no bids)

  • One bus modeling – Effect of real-time transmission constraints are captured in the historical generation patterns

    • Annual generation matched within 25% of actual history for all major dispatchable units.


Modeling cont
Modeling (Cont’)

  • 2 Cases Run

    • Reference Case

    • Marginal Case

  • Reference Case

    • Replicate, as close as possible, annual historical system operations

  • Marginal Case

    • Increase all hourly loads by 500 MW and re-run reference case

    • Represents how system may have run without DSM programs

      • Assumed in all MEA (1993-2003) in order to have a consistent baseline


Use of output results
Use of Output Results

  • Calculate Marginal Emission Rates(Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu)

    • Annual

    • On- and Off-Peak for Ozone and Non-Ozone time periods

    • By SMD Load Zone

  • Calculate Marginal Heat Rate (Mbtu/MWh)

  • Calculate Annual Average Emission Rates (Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu)


Calculating marginal emission rates

(Marginal Case Emissions – Reference Case Emissions)

(Marginal Case MWh – Reference Case MWh)

Calculating Marginal Emission Rates

  • Using the results of the Reference and Marginal Cases:

  • Calculated for SO2, NOX, and CO2 in Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu


Calculating marginal heat rate

(Marginal Case Fuel Consumption – Reference Fuel Consumption)

(Marginal Case MWh – Reference Case MWh)

Calculating Marginal Heat Rate

  • Using the results of the Reference and Marginal Cases:

  • Results in Mbtu/MWh

  • Value used to convert emission rates in Lbs/MWh to Lbs/Mbtu


Calculating annual average emission rates

(Reference Case Emissions) Consumption)

(Reference Case MWh)

Calculating Annual Average Emission Rates

  • Using the Reference Case Results:

  • Calculated for SO2, NOX, and CO2

  • Based on modeling results


2003 mea results
2003 MEA Results Consumption)





Calculated average heat rate
Calculated Average Heat Rate Consumption)

  • NEPOOL Marginal Heat Rates: MBtu/MWH

    • 1999 = 10.013

    • 2000 = 9.279

    • 2001 = 9.610

    • 2002 = 8.660

    • 2003 = 8.250


Calculated average emission rates
Calculated Average Emission Rates Consumption)

  • Annual Average Emission Rates (Lbs/MWh)


Obtaining the mea report
Obtaining the MEA Report Consumption)

  • Copies of the 1998 – 2003 MEA Reports are located on the ISO-NE website at:

    http://www.iso-ne.com/Planning_Reports/Emissions/

  • For copies of the 1993 – 1997 MEA Reports, please call ISO-NE Customer Service


QUESTIONS? Consumption)


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