Cold Land Processes

1. Cold Land Processes Jared K. Entin May 28th, 2003

3. NASA’s Mission is About Life NASA’s Mission: To understand and protect our home planet To explore the universe and search for life To inspire the next generation of explorers … as only NASA can

4. Improved precipitation forecasts that support: Water supply Decision Support Systemwith 7-10 day lead time & seasonal water supply forecasting ability How are Variations in Local Weather, Precipitation and Water Resources related to Global Climate Variation? 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2002 2004 2006 River discharge monitored globally; Snow water equivalent observations T NASA Global precipitation measurements (GPM) Partnership Unfunded T Global Soil Moisture = field campaign Quantify and elucidate mechanisms of the mean state and variability of the water cycle, including quantification of precipitation, evaporation, runoff and water storages Global estimates of ocean evaporation and land evaporation T= Technology development required Global monitoring of water and energy (GIFTS) GOAL: Models capable of predicting the water cycle, including floods and droughts, down to 10s of kms Vertical profiles of cloud structure and properties (Cloudsat/Calypso) Cloud parameterization and precipitation/water-vapor assimilation enabling more reliable short-term precipitation forecasts and accurate roll of clouds in climate predictions Knowledge Base Data assimilation of precipitation and water vapor Detection of gravity perturbations due to water distribution (GRACE) Assessments of natural variability in atmospheric, surface and subsurface moisture stores EOS/in-situ observations of land surface state variables Improved latent heating profiles and convective parameterizations within weather and climate models Observations of tropical rainfall/energy release(TRMM) Ongoing model improvements Enhancements in computing resources • Reservoirs and tropical rainfall well quantified • Difficulty balancing the water budget on any scale • Inability to observe and predict precipitation globally Systematic measurements of precipitation, SST, land cover & snow IPCC Report IPCC Report

5. Full global measurement of snow water equivalent and snow wetness Cold Land Processes Roadmap Enterprise Goals: Understand distribution of snowpack water storage and melt state (wetness) Models capable of predicting the water cycle, including floods and droughts, down to 10’s of km Routine probabilistic forecasts of snow water storage and snowfall accurate enough to support economic decisions Improve winter storm hazard forecasting at local scales to support mitigation Funded Unfunded Unfunded = Field Campaign 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2002 2004 2006 Cold Land Processes Measurement (CLPM) Mission CLPM MISSION CLP Measurement Technology Development • Improved measurement accuracy and precision • Various technology development needs detailed in ESTO database to support multi-frequency SAR, higher-resolution radiometers, larger data volumes, etc. • Higher spatial and temporal resolution to resolve precipitation from individual storms • Quantification of high latitude precipitation, fresh water stored in seasonal snowpacks, controls on variability of storage, snowpack feedback effects on weather and climate NexGen AIRSAR (L, C, Ku) CLPX IV Validation Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) Mission CLPP Prelim Tech. Devel. CLPP Proposal CLPP Education and Outreach CLPP Technology Development CLPP MISSION • Narrow-swath sampling of global snow water equivalent and snow wetness CLPP Applications Development Increased coordination and collaboration with polar regions and sea ice communities • Data collection as needed to support advanced CLPP preparations – algorithm refinement, ground system testing, science data processing tests, etc. CLPX III Development of International Partnerships • Test and refine new active/passive algorithms with augmented Ku-band AIRSAR Knowledge Base • “Routine” modeled estimates of global SWE and snow wetness, largely unconstrained by observations Imaging Ku AIRSAR Augmentation CLPX II • Test and refine improved models and data assimilation • Examine key questions unresolved by CLPX I – e.g. dynamics, untested snowpack regimes, polar regions, sea ice, etc. • New algorithms for active/passive SWE and wetness retrieval CLPX I • Improved strategies for assimilation of snow information in models • Progress in microwave radiative transfer models for snow Data Analyses • Improved representation of fundamental cold land processes in regional-global models • Evaluation of regional-global snow models, AMSR-E snow products • Improved general understanding of cold land processes Cold Land Processes Working Group • Continuation of 30-year baseline of global monitoring of snow cover and depth (dry-snow only, coarse resolution passive microwave) SSM/I AMSR-E CMIS (NPOESS) NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP TODAY: • Global variations in areal extent of snow cover well quantified • Poor understanding of how local-scale processes “scale up” • Poor understanding of snow feedbacks to atmosphere • Models don’t account for sub-grid scale snow distributions • Winter precipitation poorly observed, esp. in high latitudes • Paucity of observations of snow water content or melt state

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