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From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho,

From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho, B.P. Parida, seated in front, Sennye Masike and Elisha Toteng and far back, Pauline Dube. Aim: - Build capacity in Assessing I mpacts of Climate Change

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From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho,

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  1. From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho, B.P. Parida, seated in front, Sennye Masike and Elisha Toteng and far back, Pauline Dube.

  2. Aim: - Build capacity in Assessing Impacts of Climate Change - Provide a pool of locally relevant information on: Impacts of Climate Change on food and Water, The degree of vulnerability & the capacity to adapt to climate change in the Limpopo basin locally based adaptation strategies & how these can be enhance Overall goal: Assist decision makers and international efforts to address climate change impacts, vulnerability& adaptation

  3. Limpopo Basin

  4. North East District – 11/01/01

  5. North East District

  6. Bobirwa Sub-District

  7. Kgatleng District Site

  8. Why Limpopo Basin? • One of the 5 largest surface water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa found in Southern Africa - covers 3720 000 km2of Bots., Zim., SA & Mozambique. • Subjected to frequent climate extremes e.g.:1991/92 droughts & the 1999/2000 floods. • Forms all river systems in eastern Botswana - Major source of water and alluvial deposits for >70% of rainfed and irrigation agriculture. • Over half of Botswana’s population and major urban growth centres occur in the Limpopo Basin

  9. Study Components and Inter-relationships Climate Change Crops/Forests Fire Rainfall Temp Water Supply Livestock Nature Tourism Wildlife Water Demand Valuation + Vulnerability Assessment Human Population Land Use/Cover Change Adaptation Strategies Options

  10. General Questions: • What will be the impact of climate Change on food and water in the Limpopo Basin? • How vulnerable is food production/ food security and water supply to climate change? • What is the adaptation capacity/options for communities in the Limpopo basin?

  11. Basic Approach: • Establish past (20 years) and current status • Model future trends - 20 years - under climate change • Use findings from 1 and 2 determine vulnerability - discuss results with communities and other stakeholders. • Work out adaptation strategies and implementation schemes at different levels – includes active stakeholder participation. • Communicate results widely in the basin at national, regional and international level.

  12. General objectives: • Establish past & present status of food (F) production, water (W) supply & demand in the Basin • Establish past & recent responses to climate variability in the F & W sectors. • Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on W & F using a range of IPCC based climate & national socio-economic scenarios. • Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to CC on the F & W sectors • Determine indigenous adaptation capacity & mitigation options against adverse impacts • Contribute in increasing awareness to CC issues in southern Africa

  13. Acquisition of relevant local scale data – A time consuming process • Climate data – in digital format & available within a short time - this is exceptional • For other data sets the situation is different – • Phane caterpiller- No production figures for such forest products - Phane export figures from Government’s Customs & Excise Dept. are aggregated with other exported different types of small protein sources. - Original Phane records are destroyed every 3 Yrs -lack of storage & computerisation. • Livestock Wildlife - locality statistics is lost -Aggregates over administration regions, not in digital form are kept -Problem of a basin study – the administrative regions usually overlap with other areas outside the basin.

  14. Fire data - No system of archiving fire data although visual based fire reports are made every year. - Existingrecords are inconsistent, incomplete in terms of seasons or for a particular fire report & available for recent years - 1996-2001 - Areal extent and location of burn are only rough estimates. Estimates of Area burnt Francistown region

  15. Place Out break Date Area (km) Repoter Cause Control Remarks/ Monametsana 25-04 - Police-Mochudi Not known Same day- Police &Volteers Cost-P196-putting out Dikgonne/Masuathaga 16/05 - Police-Mochudi Not Known 17/05-local &Botswana Police, Volteers & Wildlife employees Cost – P7704.30 to put out Morwa/Ditejwane 26/05 - No data Not known Public on 27/05 - Kgatleng site fires records accessible from ARB - April-June 2002 * Current fire management systems is in-effective – If fire incidents increase in future communities will be vulnerable

  16. Some progress • Water supply: Past climate, evaporation and soil data assembled and a stable research assistant secured. • SomeResults: Declining trend in annual rainfall over 28 years but no clear trend for runoff coefficient. • Water Demand: Hardcopy information converted to digital form. Resultsfrom one site: • Domestic sector - 50% of water demand & within this Private Connections takes over 70%

  17. Phane Caterpiller –adaptation option for periods of crop failure

  18. Host Mophane plant in Southern Africa Fig. 5

  19. Phane caterpillar = Larvae of Imbrasia belina Westwood moth (Emperor Moth) (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae) Fig. 1 (Ditlhogo, 1996) **The reproduction cycle is sensitive to climate

  20. Vulnerability and adaptation • Eco-tourism: An MSc students works on potential of ecotourism in the basin. • Results- The basin is rich in cultural heritage sites but these under utilized. - Flourishing tourism is wildlfe based -has limited direct benefit to local communities • Institutions & Policy: Msc student focusing on: Institutional and policy framework impact on vulnerability and adaptation capacity • Results-Most policies do not consider vulnerability to climate. - There are some short-term drought relief schemes implemented from time to time - Another MSc student - Sources of rural livelihoods - vulnerability and adaption to drought over time

  21. Vulnerability and adaptation sections provide a gateway to access & involving stakeholder • Other links to stakeholders & National Communications: • Stakeholder meeting - June 2002 • AF42 – participated in 1st Meeting of the GEF/SGP on Climate Change Networking Group linked to the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) • AF42 PI represents the University of Botswana (UB) at NCCC & also at the National Conservation Strategy Board • Research Permit – comments from Office of the Presidents • At a regional – information on AF42 disseminated via the Southern Africa Network – AF42 fire component

  22. Constrains • Internet services • IT services • Institutional backing • Manpower resources

  23. Next Focus of the study: • Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on Water & Food Climate & socio-economic scenarios. • Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin communities to CC on the Food & Water • Work out adaptation strategies & mitigation options against adverse impacts

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