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Lecture II September 23 rd 2014. Outline. Student Assignment Themes for Case studies Carsharing Extreme weather events Electric Vehicles. Student Assignment. In short…. Investigation of a case study with MATSim Groups of 1-2 students Total workload of 60 hours (2 Credits)

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Lecture II September 23 rd 2014

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Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Lecture II

September 23rd 2014


Outline

Outline

  • Student Assignment

  • Themesfor Case studies

    • Carsharing

    • Extreme weatherevents

    • ElectricVehicles


Student assignment

Student Assignment


In short

In short…

  • Investigation of a case study with MATSim

  • Groups of 1-2 students

  • Total workload of 60 hours (2 Credits)

  • Results in a scientific paper

  • Grade determined by report, paper and presentation


Goals

Goals

  • Become a MATSim-Superuser

  • Investigate a Research Question in a Case Study

  • Produce a Research Paper

  • Present your Paper as in a Conference


Structure of student assignment

Structure of Student Assignment

Four Tasks:

  • Task 1 – Development of a Research Question

  • Task 2 – MATSim-Introduction

  • Task 3 – Case Study

  • Task 4 – Presentation

    Semester plan:


Task 1 development of a research question

Task 1 – Development of a Research Question

  • Starts Today!

  • Three different case themes will be introduced.

  • In your group you select one of them and get more detailed information on it.

  • Then you have 2 weeks to:

    • do a literature and background research on the case theme,

    • develop a research question in your case theme,

    • and write the introduction of your paper.

  • The introduction is due in week 4!


Task 2 matsim introduction

Task 2 – MATSim-Introduction

  • Goal: Preparation of MATSim for the main study

  • Consists of a mini case study which is the same for all

  • Exercises:

    • Installation and set-up of MATSim and of a suitable IDE to develop in JAVA

    • Do the mini case study and thus learn to run simulations with MATSim

    • Visualize the results and prepare a short report

  • The short report presenting the mini case study is due in week 7. The report is expected to contain meaningful visualizations which supports the main conclusions of the case study.


Task 3 case study

Task 3 – Case Study

  • Goal: Work on your research question and develop the required tools

  • Kick-off is in week 7 of the semester

  • Duration: 6 weeks (30 workhours)

  • ToDos:

    • work on the case study

    • answer the research questions

    • write a research paper (specifications given in week 7)

  • Full research paper is due in week 13, the second last week of the semester


Task 4 presentation

Task 4 – Presentation

  • Goal: Presentanddefendyourpaper in a conferencelikepresentation

  • Preparationofthepresentation: Fromweek 13 toweek 14

  • Presentation: In week 14

  • Template forthepresenation will behanded out in week 13


Grade

Grade

Weighted average of:

  • 2 x Mini case report grade

  • 6 x Paper (incl. Introduction) grade

  • 2 x Presentation grade

    No session exam. After the presentation you have holidays!


Task 1 administration

Task 1 – Administration

  • Starts Today!

  • ToDos:

    • do a literature and background research on the case theme

    • develop a research question within your case theme

    • write the introduction of your paper

  • The introduction (pdf-document) is due in week 4.


Task 1 writing an introduction i

Task 1 – Writing an Introduction I

A good Introduction…

  • puts your work in a given context:

    • start with an overview of the field

    • narrow it down to your research question and your hypothesis

  • contains a literature review: Mention the most important literature and work already done in the field and explain how you differentiate your work. Why is your work important?

  • gives an overall summary of the paper

  • explains how the research problem is solved (in your case: broadly how you plan to solve the problem with MATSim)


Task 2 writing an introduction ii

Task 2 – Writing an Introduction (II)

Paper Specifications:

  • A paper should have the following parts: abstract, introduction, methodology, results, discussion, conclusion and references.

  • Your paper, including the abstract, text, references, figures, and tables, must not exceed 7,500 words. Each table, figure, or photograph counts as 250 words. For example, if two figures and three tables are submitted, the abstract, text, and references may total no more than 6,250 words.


Themes for c ase studies

ThemesforCase Studies


Verkehrsingenieurtag 6 march 2014 carsharing w hy to model carsharing demand and how

Verkehrsingenieurtag – 6. March 2014Carsharing: Whytomodel carsharing demandandhow

F. Ciari


Outline1

Outline

  • Introduction: What’sgoing on in the carsharing world?

  • Why to model carsharing demand?

  • Modeling carsharing with MATSim

  • Summary andfuturework


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

  • Introduction: What’sgoing on in the carsharing world?

  • Why to model carsharing demand?

  • Modeling carsharing with MATSim

  • Summary andfuturework


Worldwide growth of carsharing

Worldwide growth of carsharing

  • Carsharing in terms of members / vehicles is growing fast

  • Source: Shaheen and Cohen, 2012


Actors

Actors

  • The actors involved are increasingly large

    • Car manufacturers  Daimler, BMW, Peugeot

    • Traditional car rental companies  Avis, Sixth

    • Public transport operators  DB


Competition

Competition

  • The level of competition on the market is increasing

    • At the start of modern carsharing operations (90’s Switzerland and Germany) and until recently, operators mostly were “local monopolists”

    • Now many cities boast several carsharing operators


Services

Services

  • The world of shared mobility is evolvingfast and newservices are coming to the market to challenge/complement the oldones

    • Round trip-based carsharing (Mobility)

    • One-way (station based) carsharing (Autolib)

    • Free-floating carsharing (Car2go, DriveNow)

    • Peer-to-peer carsharing (RelayRides)

    • Bike-sharing

    • Carpooling

    • Dynamic ride sharing

    • Slugging


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

  • Introduction: What’sgoing on in the carsharing world?

  • Why to model carsharing demand?

  • Modeling carsharing with MATSim

  • Summary andfuturework


Why do we need to model carsharing demand

Why do we need to model carsharing demand?

  • Models are used to get insight on the behavior of a transportation system under given circumstances

    but

    Is carsharing relevant?


Because

Because…

  • Still small but conceptually “mainstream” (“Shared economy”)

  • Fits well with some societal developments (“Peak car”)

  • Is often mentioned when it comes to make transport more sustainable (but the mechanisms aren’t clear)


And also because

…and also because…

  • The actors involved are increasingly large Able to have a “big bang” approach, implies large investments

  • The level of competition on the market is increasing  Higher investment risk

  • The world of shared mobility is evolvingfast Incertitude about integration/competition among different modes/systems


Research goal

Research Goal

  • Build a predictive and policy sensitive model that can be used by practitioners (operators) and policy makers


Methodology observations

Methodology: Observations

  • Inherent limitations of traditional models representing carsharing – the importance of CS availability at precise points in time and spaceis not fitting with vehicles per hour flows

  • Travel is the result of the individual need performing out-of-home activities at different locations – this matters for carsharing even more than for other modes! (according to the length / location of the activities)


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

  • Introduction: What’sgoing on in the carsharing world?

  • Why to model carsharing demand?

  • Modeling carsharing with MATSim

  • Summary andfuturework


Matsim

MATSim

  • It sketches individuals’ daily life using the agent paradigm.

  • Agents have personal attributes (age, gender, employment, etc.) which influence their behavior

  • Agents autonomously try to carry out a daily plan being able to modify some dimensions of their travel (time, mode, route, activity location)

  • High temporal and spatial resolution

  • MATSim= Multi-agent transport simulation (www.matsim.org)


Carsharing model in matsim current status

Carsharing model in MATSim – Current status

  • Traditional carsharing + Free-floating

    • Agents always walkfrom the starting facility to the closest car

    • Time and distance dependent fare

    • Stations are located at the actual carsharing locations in the modeled area

    • Carsharing is available only to members

    • Actual vehicle availability is accounted for


Test case 1 berlin

Test Case 1 - Berlin

  • Part of a German project called “Berlin elektroMobil”  Berlin, Germany as a test case

  • Goals:

  • Understand the behavior of the whole transportation systemunder different carsharing scenarios

  • Finding strategies to extend the carsharingsupply in Berlin and get hints on how to combinefree-floating (FF) and station-based(SB) carsharing


Scenarios

Scenarios

  • Scenario I: SBCS (Basis, station based only, reflecting actual supply)

  • Scenario II: Expanded SBCS (Station based only, additional stations and members)

  • Scenario III: Scenario II + Free-floating


Statistics overview

Statistics overview

  • Over-proportional increase of SB rentals (increasing stations / cars)

  • Trips (distance and travel time) essentially unchanged

  • Adding FFCS (2’500 cars) 

  • ~ 10’000 additional trips and SBCS grows

  • SB (S III) shorter trips (distance), FF slightly longerbutfaster trips.


Purpose

Purpose

  • FF CS has moreWork and lessLeisure travel compared to SB CS


Modal substitution

Modal substitution

  • Mode substituted by free-floating carsharing 

  • Car travel is the mode which is reducedthe most (> 30%) of the free-floating trips were car trips before its introduction

  • Overall car travel (VMT) grows with FF compared to SB only  modal substitution patterns for free-floating carsharing might be problematic

  • Relatively few agents changed from SB to FF carsharing


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Untapped potential for SBCS in Berlin – Over-proportional growth of SB doubling # carsharing cars

  • SB carsharing is used more intensively after FF carsharing is introduced

  • Some differences in the use of the two CS modes (purpose, time, distance)

  • Substitution patterns are a possible concern for FF

  • Apparently FF and SB are rather complementary


Test case 2 z rich

Test Case 2 - Zürich

  • Goals:

  • Understand the behavior of the whole carsharing systemunder different (carsharing) pricing scenarios

  • Get hints on the interactions between traditional station based carsharing and free-floating carsharing under such scenarios


Scenarios1

Scenarios


Vehicles in motion

Vehicles in Motion


Modal substitution1

Modal substitution

Modes substituted by free-floating carsharing in scenarios II to V as compared to scenario I. The secondary axis shows the number of free-floating rentals for the scenario


Rentals spatial patterns

Rentals spatial patterns


Purpose of the rental

Purpose of the rental


Conclusions1

Conclusions

  • The impact of different pricing schemes is not limited to increasing or reducing the aggregate level of usage

  • Pricingstrategy structurally affects the interactions between the two carsharing types

  • Complex interactions between spatiotemporal availability of carsharing vehicles and users are observed

  • The realism of some aspects (i.e. purpose, modal substitution) is still unclear


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

  • Introduction: What’sgoing on in the carsharing world?

  • Why to model carsharing demand?

  • Modeling carsharing with MATSim

  • Summary andfuturework


Summary

Summary

  • Carsharingisgrowing fast andisbecoming «mainstream»

  • Instruments for the modeling of carsharing are becoming necessary

  • Traditional modelsarenotwellsuitedtomodel carsharing

  • MATSim is already able to simulate carsharing and to evaluate complex scenarios…

  • …but thereare still manylimitations


Ongoing work

Ongoing work

  • Improving the existing membership model

  • Testing our implementations of free-floating and one-way carsharing


Future work

Future work

  • Further validation of the existing results with empirical data

  • Applying the tool for analysis on new scenarios, possibly relying on new empirical data

  • Improve the simulation with better behavioral models

  • New case studies where different shared mobility options (Autonomous Vehicles, Ride Sharing) are combined


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Thank you for your attention!

www.matsim.org


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

ModelingImpactsofWeather

TransportMicrosimulations

Conditionsin

Agent-Based

AlexanderStahel

Francesco Ciari

93rd

TransportationResearchBoard

January2014

AnnualMeeting


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Terminology

«Climateiswhatyouexpect,weatheriswhatyouget.»(RobertHeinlein)

Climate:Measureoftheaverageweatherobserved overacertainperiod

Weather:Descriptionofthemomentarystateoftheatmosphereand

theirchangeoversmallperiods.

Climatechange:Statisticallysignificantvariationinthemeanstateof

theclimateoritsvariability,persistingforanextendedperiod

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Motivation

Transportsector

Climatechange

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Motivation

Transportsector

Climatechange

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

ToPDAd:Tool-supportedpolicy-development forregionaladaption

7th

EU

Frameworkproject

Theobjectiveistofindthebeststrategiesforbusinessesand

regionalgovernmentstoadapttotheexpectedshorttermand longtermchangesinclimate

Developmentofsocioeconomicmethodsandtoolsforan

integratedassessment

Sectors:Transport,Energy,andTourism

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Openquestions

Whichaspectsofthetransportsystemareaffectedbytheweather?

1.

Whichaspectsofthetransportsystemareaffectedbyclimatechange?

2.

Howcantheseimpactsbemodelled?

3.

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Weatherimpactsontransport

1)

Transportinfrastructure

2)

Safety

3)

Travelbehavior

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Climatechangeimpactsontransport

Cannotbeequatedwithweatherimpacts

Alsocumulativeeffectsinthelong-runareimportant

1)

Transportinfrastructure

2)

Safety

3)

Travelbehavior

4)

Socio-economiccircumstances

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Climatechange

impactson

transport

Event-specificimpacts

Cumulativeimpacts

Transport

infrastructure

-Breakdown

-Disturbance

-Elevatedphysicalstresslevels

-Changing maintenancecosts

-Changing constructioncosts

-Reducedlifetime

Safety

-Frequencyofaccidents

-Severityofaccidents

-Changing transportsafety regulations

Travelbehavior

-Mode,time,destination,route choice

-Reducedfree-flowspeed

-Changing long-termactivity-

-Driverexperienceunderadverse

travelbehavior

weatherconditions

Socio-economic

circumstances

-Structuralchangesinrelated

-Changesinmitigationpolicies

sectors(e.g.tourism)

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

MATSim

Agent-andactivity-basedtransportsimulation

Theactorsofthemodeledsystemarerepresentedatindividuallevel

BasedonJava

Opensourceatwww.matsim.org

JointlydevelopedbyETHZurich,TUBerlin,andothers

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Regularweatherconditions

Aspectsofclimatechange:

Increasedaveragetemperature

Increaseinthenumberofhotdays

Decreaseinthenumberofcolddays

Sealevelrise

Moreprecipitationordroughtevents

Longersummer/shorterwinter

The iterativeapproachofMATSimisapplicable

Searchfortippingpoints

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Unexpectedweatherconditions

Aspectsofclimatechange:

Increasedfrequencyofadverseweatherconditions

Increasedseverityofadverseweatherconditions

The iterativeapproachofMATSimisnotapplicable

Usageofthewithin-day-replanningmoduleandatime-variant

network

Introduction

Weatherimpacts

Climateimpacts

MATSim

Approaches


Project topdad weather influence

Project ToPDAd – Weather Influence

  • Scenarios investigated with MATSim:

  • Baseline:Zurich 2030 standard scenario, no change.

  • Disturbance:Reduced traffic network capacity and speed due to unfavourable weather conditions.

  • Disruption (momentary/when occuring): Traffic network capacity becomes largely unavailable during simulation due to unfavorable weather conditions.

  • Disruption (momentary/when occuring): Traffic network capacity becomes largely unavailable during simulation due to unfavorable weather conditions. Level of informedness is varied to mimic effects of innovations.

  • Disruption (lasting):Traffic network capacity is largely unavailable during the whole simulation due to earlier, unfavourable weather conditions.


Project topdad zurich scenario

Project ToPDAd – Zurich Scenario


Lecture ii september 23 rd 2014

Thankyouforyourattention!


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